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To avoid the worst of climate change we have to change how we travel

In September last year I embarked on a 5 week trip throughout Italy and France. We swam in the waters of Cinque Terre, ate the best pizza we’d ever had in Naples, and walked blisters into our feet through the streets of Paris. The marvels of modern aviation meant I completed my 32,000 km round trip in roughly 24 hours each way. But while I budgeted for the monetary costs associated with the trip, I neglected to consider another crucial one – the carbon cost. Humans are changing the Earth’s climate. It is estimated our activities have caused about 1°C of additional atmospheric warming since the industrial revolution. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">crossing a 1.5°C threshold</a> will unleash devastating climate change impacts on human life and ecosystems. To keep global warming to below 1.5°C, as called for in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Paris Agreement</a>, emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest, halve by 2030, and reach net-zero as soon as possible before 2050. The <a href="https://www.unwto.org/the-glasgow-declaration-on-climate-action-in-tourism" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action in Tourism</a>, launched at <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop26" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">COP26</a>, commits the tourism sector to these goals. So, what will global tourism look like as it begins to decarbonise? Will it necessitate changing the way I approach travel in the coming decades? Paul Peeters, a professor of sustainable transport and tourism at Breda University of Applied Sciences in the Netherlands is one of the principal authors of a report released last year that seeks to <a href="https://pure.buas.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/27136592/Peeters_Papp_EnvisionTourism_report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">envision tourism in 2030 and beyond.</a> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tourism and emissions: how big of a contributor is it?</h2> Tourism is a major contributor to climate change. According to Peeters, at least 5% of global CO2 emissions come from tourism and travel, with some estimates as high as 8-11% if you include indirect (supply chain) emissions. These emissions are inequitable, about half of the global tourism footprint is caused by travel between the richest countries. If global tourism continues unchanged, it’s predicted to increase emissions by 73% by 2050, compared to 2019. In this scenario, the sector will use over 66% of the world’s remaining carbon budget between 2023 and 2100. Peeters says this is not a viable way forward. But it doesn’t mean that tourism will cease to exist, or that we must stop flying altogether. Instead, the modelling he presents finds there is a plausible decarbonisation pathway that allows tourism to continue with similar levels of growth in global revenue, trips, and guest nights compared to 2019, while also achieving net-zero emissions, by 2050. This model is called the Tourism Decarbonisation Scenario (TDS) and it requires us to re-think how we travel. <h2 class="wp-block-heading">How do you put tourism emissions into a holding pattern?</h2> “If you look at the division of the [emissions from] different parts of travel, then in general… transport takes about 75-80%, 20% goes to the accommodation sector,” says Peeters. That 20% also includes activities, like visiting museums or amusement parks. “And then within transport, you see that about more than half of the emissions come from aviation, while at the same time aviation serves about a quarter of all trips,” he says. Each country party to the Paris Agreement – a legally binding international treaty on climate change – is required to establish a <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/all-about-ndcs#:~:text=Simply%20put%2C%20an%20NDC%2C%20or,and%20adapt%20to%20climate%20impacts." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nationally Determined Contribution</a> (NDC). An NDC is an action plan to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts, updated every 5 years. Most of tourism – like accommodation and on-ground transportation – falls within the Paris Agreement and these NDCs and will decarbonise through changes already happening in the legislation of each country. For instance, the transition to electrified forms of travel and accommodation powered by renewable energy. So, as a tourist, I won’t need to change my behaviour there. “But it’s not true for aviation. And the problem is that aviation, in terms of governance, has got an exemption,” says Peeters. Aviation emissions are much harder to reduce. The International Civil Aviation Organization – ICAO – governs international aviation. It has a long-term aspirational goal for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and to achieve these goals is pursuing improvements to <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/science/engineering/hydrogen-fuelled-planes/">aircraft technology</a>, <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/energy/from-refinery-to-biofuel-reactor/">sustainable aviation fuels</a>, and <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/carbon-offsetting-right/">carbon offsets</a>. But Peeters’ modelling says this won’t be enough. “The final technology is low or zero emission aircraft technology,” he says. “But that takes decades to develop and then decades to replace the whole fleet – you are not buying a new aircraft every year like a car. “That technology will come […] much faster actually than 10 years ago, but still it’s at a pace that we will have it by the end of the century fully implemented, not before. “We need an international body that governs the growth of aviation that actually stops it for the next couple of decades, to create a timeframe for the technology we need.” So until sustainable aviation technology can be fully implemented, the key is to slow the rate of growth of aviation. <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Further does not equal better</h2> In 2019, nearly all long-distance travel over 16,000 kms return trip was by air. These trips, equivalent to flying return Shanghai to Sydney or further, made up just 2% of all trips in 2019. But they were the most polluting – accounting for 19% of tourism’s total carbon emissions. My roundtrip from Australia to Europe sits in this bracket. I estimate my seats on those planes probably came with a carbon footprint of about 6.4 tonnes of CO2 altogether. To put that in perspective, the average Australian emits 15 tonnes per year, according to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/australia" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">ourworldindata.org</a>, and I emitted almost half that in just 48 hours. Failing to curb the growth of these longest-haul trips means they will make up 4% of all trips but account for a massive 41% of tourism’s total emissions by 2050. To prevent this, the TDS says we need to cap them at 2019 levels – about 120 million return trips per year. In this scenario, shorter distance trips up to 900km return – that’s roughly equivalent to flying from Rome to Milan in Italy – and those by car, rail, coach, and ferry, would increase to 81% of all trips by 2050. Longer distance trips (return journeys of more than 7,000km, roughly equivalent to return flying Sydney to Perth and further) would also grow less quickly than current rates and account for 3.5% of all trips by 2050 (down from 6.0% in 2019). This could have flow-on benefits, especially for local tourism. “So, you keep the number of trips, and you keep the number of nights – you could even increase that a little bit as a compensation maybe for not being able to travel so far, then you can travel deeper. And that means the total revenues in the sector can grow as we are used to because the number of trips and the number of nights generate most of the revenues,” explains Peeters. <h2 class="wp-block-heading">What curbing the aviation industry could look like</h2> So, what will this mean for my travel habits in the coming years, if further isn’t better? It will likely involve a switch in mindset to consider whether an alternative, less carbon intensive mode of transport exists to reach the destination I have in mind. According to Peeters, even 1 fewer person sitting in an aircraft’s seats can measurably change its emissions. “Aircraft are quite lightweight, half of the weight of an aircraft taking off is not its structure. But it means that if you remove 100 kilograms, even off an Airbus A320, you can measure the difference in fuel consumption. It will save, I calculated it for flights, just a 1,500 km flight, already up to 10 kilograms of CO2,” says Peeters. Compare that to a different mode – adding an additional person to an already incredibly heavy train will add perhaps half a kilogram in emissions at most, probably less. It’s a little embarrassing to admit that I’ve never considered the idea of an interstate road trip, taking the car across the border or opting for a coach or train instead of flying, as a viable option for domestic travel in Australia. But it has for other people. <a href="https://flightfree.net.au/about/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Flight Free Australia</a> encourages us to stop flying, and people have already taken their pledge to swear off air travel – whether for the next 12 months or until it’s ‘climate safe’ to do so again. As for Europe… Well, Peeter’s report predicts that ticket prices will increase, with the cost of flying increasing to 0.18 $/pkm in 2050, from 0.06 $/pkm in 2019, caused mainly by mandates for sustainable aviation e-fuels. Entire families have event attempted to make it from one end of the world to another without setting foot on a plane – a months-long journey ultimately <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-22/british-family-travel-australia-without-flying-carbon-footprint/103256280" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">foiled</a> by cyclones north of Darwin. Whether the changes outlined in the Envisioning Tourism in 2030 and Beyond report are made to the aviation industry, already my perspective on flying is changing. Why would I reduce my carbon footprint in other areas of my life, but turn around and negate those efforts by jumping on a plane? It doesn’t mean that I have to give up travel, just change my perspective on what makes a worthy destination. “You see a growing number of people, particularly young people, that say, ‘I stopped flying, whatever happens, I never go anymore’,” says Peeters. “And it makes your life so much easier. You don’t have to choose every time ‘should I fly?’. No, if you can’t get there by train, car, or whatever, you don’t go. And then you go somewhere else, of course, you’re not sitting at home. And you discover that somewhere else is also beautiful.” <div> </div> <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=294884&title=To+avoid+the+worst+of+climate+change+we+have+to+change+how+we+travel" width="1" height="1" loading="lazy" aria-label="Syndication Tracker" data-spai-target="src" data-spai-orig="" data-spai-exclude="nocdn" /> <div class="share-syndicate-wrapper margin-top-1"> <div class="article-sharing"> Image credits: Getty Images </div> </div> <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/synergy/to-avoid-the-worst-of-climate-change-we-have-to-change-how-we-travel/">This article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/imma-perfetto/">Imma Perfetto</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

Flying home for Christmas? Carbon offsets are important, but they won’t fix plane pollution

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susanne-becken-90437">Susanne Becken</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-mackey-152282">Brendan Mackey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> Australia is an important player in the global tourism business. In 2016, <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/research/research">8.7 million visitors arrived in Australia and 8.8 million Australians went overseas</a>. A further 33.5 million overnight trips were made domestically. But all this travel comes at a cost. According to the <a href="http://tourismdashboard.org/explore-the-data/carbon-emissions/">Global Sustainable Tourism Dashboard</a>, all Australian domestic trips and one-way international journeys (the other half is attributed to the end point of travel) amount to 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide for 2016. That is 2.7% of global aviation emissions, despite a population of only 0.3% of the global total. The peak month of air travel in and out of Australia is December. Christmas is the time where people travel to see friends and family, or to go on holiday. More and more people are <a href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/analysis-of-a-119-country-survey-predicts-global-climate-change-awareness/">aware of the carbon implications of their travel</a> and want to know whether, for example, they should purchase carbon offsets or not. Our <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699716302538">recent study in the Journal of Air Transport Management</a> showed that about one third of airlines globally offer some form of carbon offsetting to their customers. However, the research also concluded that the information provided to customers is often insufficient, dated and possibly misleading. Whilst local airlines <a href="https://www.qantasfutureplanet.com.au/#aboutus">Qantas</a>, <a href="https://www.virginaustralia.com/nz/en/about-us/sustainability/carbon-offset-program/">Virgin Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/sustainability-customer-carbon-offset">Air New Zealand</a> have relatively advanced and well-articulated carbon offset programs, others fail to offer scientifically robust explanations and accredited mechanisms that ensure that the money spent on an offset generates some real climate benefits. The notion of carbon compensation is actually more difficult than people might think. To help explain why carbon offsetting does make an important climate contribution, but at the same time still adds to atmospheric carbon, we created an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsh-erzGlR0">animated video clip</a>. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xsh-erzGlR0?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Jack’s journey.</figcaption></figure> The video features Jack, a concerned business traveller who begins purchasing carbon credits. However, he comes to the realisation that the carbon emissions from his flights are still released into the atmosphere, despite the credit. The concept of “carbon neutral” promoted by airline offsets means that an equal amount of emissions is avoided elsewhere, but it does not mean there is no carbon being emitted at all – just relatively less compared with the scenario of not offsetting (where someone else continues to emit, in addition to the flight). This means that, contrary to many promotional and educational materials (see <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGB2OAg5ffA">here</a> for instance), carbon offsetting will not reduce overall carbon emissions. Trading emissions means that we are merely maintaining status quo. A steep reduction, however, is what’s required by every sector if we were to reach the net-zero emissions goal by 2050, agreed on in the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a>. Carbon offsetting is already an important “<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517714000910">polluter pays</a>” mechanism for travellers who wish to contribute to climate mitigation. But it is also about to be institutionalised at large scale through the new UN-run <a href="https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/market-based-measures.aspx">Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)</a>. CORSIA will come into force in 2021, when participating airlines will have to purchase carbon credits for emissions above 2020 levels on certain routes. The availability of carbon credits and their integrity is of major concern, as well as how they align with national obligations and mechanisms agreed in the Paris Agreement. Of particular interest is <a href="http://www.carbon-mechanisms.de/en/introduction/the-paris-agreement-and-article-6/">Article 6</a>, which allows countries to cooperate in meeting their climate commitments, including by “trading” emissions reductions to count towards a national target. The recent COP23 in Bonn highlighted that CORSIA is widely seen as a potential source of billions of dollars for offset schemes, supporting important climate action. Air travel may provide an important intermediate source of funds, but ultimately the aviation sector, just like anyone else, will have to reduce their own emissions. This will mean major advances in technology – and most likely a contraction in the fast expanding global aviation market. <h2>Travelling right this Christmas</h2> In the meantime, and if you have booked your flights for Christmas travel, you can do the following: <ul> <li> pack light (every kilogram will cost additional fuel) </li> <li> minimise carbon emissions whilst on holiday (for instance by biking or walking once you’re there), and </li> <li> support a <a href="http://www.co2offsetresearch.org/consumer/Standards.html">credible offsetting program</a>. </li> </ul> And it’s worth thinking about what else you can do during the year to minimise emissions – this is your own “carbon budget”.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89148/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susanne-becken-90437">Susanne Becken</a>, Professor of Sustainable Tourism and Director, Griffith Institute for Tourism, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-mackey-152282">Brendan Mackey</a>, Director of the Griffith Climate Change Response Program, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-home-for-christmas-carbon-offsets-are-important-but-they-wont-fix-plane-pollution-89148">original article</a>.

Travel Trouble

It’s time to limit how often we can travel abroad – ‘carbon passports’ may be the answer

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ross-bennett-cook-1301368">Ross Bennett-Cook</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-westminster-916">University of Westminster</a> The summer of 2023 has been very significant for the travel industry. By the end of July, international tourist arrivals globally <a href="https://www.unwto.org/news/international-tourism-swiftly-overcoming-pandemic-downturn">reached 84% of pre-pandemic levels</a>. In <a href="https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/eu-tourism-almost-full-recovery-pre-pandemic-levels-2023-10-23_en">some European countries</a>, such as France, Denmark and Ireland, tourism demand even surpassed its pre-pandemic level. This may be great <a href="https://skift.com/insight/state-of-travel/">news economically</a>, but there’s concern that a return to the status quo is already showing dire environmental and social consequences. The summer saw record-breaking heatwaves across many parts of the world. People were forced to flee <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/24/greece-wildfires-corfu-evia-rhodes-heatwave-northern-hemisphere-extreme-weather-temperatures-europe">wildfires in Greece</a> and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/hawaii-fires-update-biden-b2393188.html">Hawaii</a>, and extreme <a href="https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/world-news/foreign-office-issues-spain-weather-27339111">weather warnings</a> were issued in many popular holiday destinations like Portugal, Spain and Turkey. Experts <a href="https://theconversation.com/european-heatwave-whats-causing-it-and-is-climate-change-to-blame-209653">attributed these extreme conditions</a> to climate change. Tourism is part of the problem. The tourism sector <a href="https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2021/WTTC_Net_Zero_Roadmap.pdf">generates around one-tenth</a> of the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving the climate crisis. The negative impacts of tourism on the environment have become so severe that some are suggesting drastic changes to our travel habits are inevitable. In a <a href="https://www.intrepidtravel.com/sites/intrepid/files/basic_page/files/A%20Sustainable%20Future%20For%20Travel%20From%20Crisis%20To%20Transformation-231016-02.pdf">report</a> from 2023 that analysed the future of sustainable travel, tour operator Intrepid Travel proposed that “carbon passports” will soon become a reality if the tourism industry hopes to survive. <h2>What is a carbon passport?</h2> The idea of a carbon passport centres on each traveller being assigned a yearly carbon allowance that they cannot exceed. These allowances can then “ration” travel. This concept may seem extreme. But the idea of personal carbon allowances is not new. A <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmenvaud/565/565.pdf">similar concept</a> (called “personal carbon trading”) was discussed in the House of Commons in 2008, before being shut down due to its perceived complexity and the possibility of public resistance. The <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/get-involved/how-to-help/carbon-footprint-calculator/#:%7E:text=A%20carbon%20footprint%20is%20the,is%20closer%20to%204%20tons.">average annual carbon footprint</a> for a person in the US is 16 tonnes – one of the highest rates in the world. In the UK this figure sits at 11.7 tonnes, still more than five times the figure recommended by the <a href="https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/the-average-british-carbon-footprint-is-five-times-over-paris-agreement-recommendations/152669/#:%7E:text=Despite%20rising%20environmental%20awareness%20across,equivalent%20(tCO2e)%20per%20year.">Paris Agreement</a> to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C. Globally, the average annual carbon footprint of a person is closer to 4 tonnes. But, to have the best chance of preventing temperature rise from overshooting 2°C, the average global carbon footprint <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/get-involved/how-to-help/carbon-footprint-calculator/#:%7E:text=Globally%2C%20the%20average%20carbon%20footprint,tons%20doesn't%20happen%20overnight!">needs to drop</a> to under 2 tonnes by 2050. This figure equates to around <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/jul/19/carbon-calculator-how-taking-one-flight-emits-as-much-as-many-people-do-in-a-year">two return flights</a> between London and New York. Intrepid Travel’s report predicts that we will see carbon passports in action by 2040. However, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/travel-short-haul-flights-europe-under-fire-climate-change-cop26/">several laws and restrictions</a> have been put in place over the past year that suggest our travel habits may already be on the verge of change. <h2>Targeting air travel</h2> Between 2013 and 2018, the amount of CO₂ emitted by commercial aircrafts worldwide <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_CO2-commercl-aviation-2018_20190918.pdf">increased by 32%</a>. Improvements in fuel efficiency are slowly reducing per passenger emissions. But <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231014004889">research</a> from 2014 found that whatever the industry’s efforts to reduce its carbon emissions, they will be outweighed by the growth in air traffic. For emission reductions to have any meaningful effect, ticket prices would have to rise by 1.4% each year, discouraging some people from flying. However, in reality, <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/news/increase-in-flights-will-outweigh-carbon-cuts-17875">ticket prices are falling</a>. Some European countries are beginning to take measures to reduce air travel. As of April 1 2023, passengers on short-haul flights and older aircraft in Belgium have been <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/12/12/private-jets-and-short-haul-flights-face-pollution-busting-tax-increases-in-belgium">subject to increased taxes</a> to encourage alternative forms of travel. Less than two months later France banned <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65687665">short-haul domestic flights</a> where the same trip can be made by train in two-and-a-half hours or less. <a href="https://businesstravelerusa.com/news/spain-to-follow-frances-lead-plans-to-ban-short-haul-domestic-flights/">Spain</a> is expected to follow suit. A similar scheme could also be on the horizon for Germany. In 2021, a <a href="https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/seventy-percent-germans-favour-banning-short-haul-flights-survey">YouGov poll</a> found that 70% of Germans would support such measures to fight climate change if alternative transport routes like trains or ships were available. <h2>Cruises and carbon</h2> It’s not just air travel that’s being criticised. An <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/The-return-of-the-cruise-June-2023.pdf">investigation</a> by the European Federation for Transport and Environment in 2023 found that cruise ships pump four times as many sulphuric gases (which are proven to cause acid rain and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/04/26/cruise-ship-pollution-is-causing-serious-health-and-environmental-problems/?sh=468ee2f637db">several respiratory conditions</a>) into the atmosphere than all of Europe’s 291 million cars combined. Statistics like these have forced European destinations to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8727387d-590d-43bd-a305-b5ec208a4dfe">take action</a> against the cruise industry. In July, Amsterdam’s council <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66264226">banned cruise ships</a> from docking in the city centre in a bid to reduce tourism and pollution – an initiative that has shown success elsewhere. In 2019 Venice was the most polluted European port, due to large numbers of cruise ship visits. But it dropped to 41st place in 2022 after a ban on large cruise ships entering the city’s waters <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/europes-luxury-cruise-ships-emit-as-much-toxic-sulphur-as-1bn-cars-study/">reduced air pollutants from ships</a> in Venice by 80%. <h2>Changing destinations</h2> Intrepid Travel’s report also highlights that not only how we travel, but <a href="https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/global-warming-reshuffle-europes-tourism-demand-particularly-coastal-areas-2023-07-28_en">where we travel</a> will soon be impacted by climate change. Boiling temperatures will probably diminish the allure of traditional beach destinations, prompting European tourists to search for cooler destinations such as Belgium, Slovenia and Poland for their summer holidays. <a href="https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Tour-Operators/Travelers-seek-cooler-destinations-this-summer">Several travel agencies</a> reported seeing noticeable increases in holiday bookings to cooler European destinations like Scandinavia, Ireland and the UK during 2023’s peak summer travel months. Whatever the solution may be, changes to our travel habits look inevitable. Destinations across the globe, from <a href="https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/barcelonas-war-on-tourism-ada-colau/">Barcelona</a> to the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/italy-tourism-bans-controls-fees-restrictions/a-66453047">Italian riveria</a> and even <a href="https://theconversation.com/death-on-everest-the-boom-in-climbing-tourism-is-dangerous-and-unsustainable-114033">Mount Everest</a> are already calling for limits on tourist numbers as they struggle to cope with crowds and pollution. Holidaymakers should prepare to change their travel habits now, before this change is forced upon them. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ross-bennett-cook-1301368">Ross Bennett-Cook</a>, Visiting Lecturer, School of Architecture + Cities, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-westminster-916">University of Westminster</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-limit-how-often-we-can-travel-abroad-carbon-passports-may-be-the-answer-216503">original article</a>.

International Travel

What to wear for a climate crisis

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachael-wallis-568028">Rachael Wallis</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-southern-queensland-1069">University of Southern Queensland</a> When people move to the country from the city, they need to change their wardrobes, my <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/area.12540">research on tree-changers</a> in Australia found. The new context of their lives means the clothes they wore for the city no longer work for their new lives. This is also true in the climate crisis. Our context has changed. When we decide what clothes to buy, we now need to bring into play a wider range of values than the appearance of a garment, its newness and novelty and whether we like it or not. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">states</a>, if we are to have any hope of avoiding a world that is too hot and unpredictable to live in, we need to do everything we possibly can, right now, to cut greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The fashion industry contributes <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.973102/full">up to 10% of global emissions</a> – more than international aviation and shipping combined. It also contributes to biodiversity loss, pollution, landfill issues, unsafe work practices and more. Australia’s carbon footprint from the consumption and use of fashion is the <a href="https://hotorcool.org/unfit-unfair-unfashionable/">world’s biggest</a>, a dubious distinction in a materialistic world. So this is an area where the choices we make can have big impacts. While individual action will not solve all of the above problems, it will help as we move towards the structural and systemic change needed to live sustainably. If we are concerned about these issues, responding thoughtfully means we will live our lives according to our values. And that’s an <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6326475/">important factor</a> in living well, flourishing and being happy. <iframe id="datawrapper-chart-teOOs" style="border: none;" title="Carbon footprints from fashion consumption in G20 nations" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/teOOs/2/" width="100%" height="589" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Stacked Bars" data-external="1"></iframe> <h2>Lessons from wartime</h2> It’s not the first time people have adapted their clothing in response to the demands of a crisis. During the second world war, <a href="https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/how-clothes-rationing-affected-fashion-in-the-second-world-war">clothing styles changed</a> in the United Kingdom and Australia. To conserve precious resources, shorter skirts, minimal detailing and a focus on utility became the norm. People adapted their personal aesthetics and appearance because the situation was grave and they wanted to “do their bit” to help with the war effort. This was a collective necessity in dire times. This wartime response reflected the priorities and values of society as a whole as well as most people in that society. In other words, buying less (rationing meant this was not just a choice), mending and making do with what was already there was part of a value system that contributed to the Allied victory. In novels and other writing from the era, it is clear that at times it was not easy and it could be frustrating. There was, however, a public consensus that it was necessary. This shared commitment to the war effort became a value that made personal sacrifices worthwhile and satisfying. <h2>So what can we do today?</h2> In our current context, the <a href="https://hotorcool.org/unfit-unfair-unfashionable/">most helpful thing we can do</a> is to buy fewer new clothes and wear them for longer. Australians buy a lot of clothes, about <a href="https://www.cleanup.org.au/fastfashion">56 items per year</a> on average. That makes Australians the <a href="https://hotorcool.org/unfit-unfair-unfashionable/">second highest textiles consumers in the world</a> after <a href="https://www.cleanup.org.au/fastfashion">the USA</a> , and is <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/static/planet4-international-stateless/2017/09/76e05528-fashion-at-the-crossroads.pdf">60% more than we bought even 15 years ago</a>. The <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/textiles-in-europes-circular-economy">price of clothes has dropped significantly</a> over the past couple of decades, and the <a href="https://hotorcool.org/unfit-unfair-unfashionable/">number of clothes</a> people have in their closets has grown. If we begin to shift away from our slavish devotion to newness and novelty – following the dictates of fashion – to a mindset of value-led sufficiency, we can appreciate more fully the feel of lived-in, mended or altered clothes. There is a feeling of comfort in pulling on an old garment that is soft with age and repeated washing. There is <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Loved_Clothes_Last/StfnDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=joy+of+creative+mending&pg=PT7&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q=joy%20of%20creative%20mending&f=false">joy in extending a garment’s life</a> through creative mending, especially when that aligns with our values. The Berlin-based <a href="https://hotorcool.org/unfit-unfair-unfashionable/">Hot or Cool Institute</a> suggests a wardrobe of 74 garments (including shoes but excluding undergarments) is typically sufficient for people who live in a two-season climate (in the tropics) and 85 pieces for those who live in a four-season climate, as most Australians do. If we buy ten to 12 new items a year, we can replace our entire wardrobe in about seven years. Buying second-hand instead of new is even better because it doesn’t add to current production emissions. If we buy second-hand, it still doesn’t mean we should buy more than we need. <h2>Choosing clothes to fit our values</h2> To live authentic lives that are fulfilling and satisfying in deep and meaningful ways, we need to be true to our selves. In the case of clothing, we should evaluate our choices in relation to the values we hold. And if we do care about living sustainably, that means changing those choices we feel are no longer suited to the climate crisis. Clothes need to reflect a person’s situation as well as their identity to <a href="https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q4x53/the-phenomenological-and-discursive-practice-of-place-in-lifestyle-migration-a-case-study-of-stanthorpe-queensland">“work” well</a>. This may mean that what we wear changes as we make different buying decisions, just as people did in the second world war and as tree-changers do. We may start to look different, but that change signifies our values in action. Best of all, clothing choices that align with keeping global warming to less than 1.5 degrees will have a long-term impact as significant as winning the war.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214478/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachael-wallis-568028">Rachael Wallis</a>, Research Assistant, Youth Community Futures, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-southern-queensland-1069">University of Southern Queensland</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-to-wear-for-a-climate-crisis-214478">original article</a>.

Beauty & Style

Southampton to Shanghai by train – one climate change researcher’s quest to avoid flying

Academics travel a lot. Whether for fieldwork or conferences, we’re often <a href="https://theconversation.com/university-sector-must-tackle-air-travel-emissions-118929">encouraged</a> to do it. Often internationally, invariably by aeroplane. But while globetrotting might make us feel important, a recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619311862">study</a> suggests there’s no connection between academic air-miles and career advancement. With the obvious realities of the climate crisis, and with air travel being the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-wake-up-to-the-devastating-impact-flying-has-on-the-environment-70953">single quickest</a> way an average person can contribute to climate change, some academics are trying to stay on the ground whenever possible. Within a broader <a href="https://www.flightfree.co.uk/">campaign</a> to encourage people to go “flight-free”, there’s a community of <a href="https://academicflyingblog.wordpress.com/">academics</a> challenging the reliance on flying that’s typically sat uneasily at the heart of their careers. I’m a member of that community. I pledged not to fly in 2019 and 2020, and then won a fellowship to study Chinese attitudes to sustainability which required me to go to China for fieldwork. Suddenly, the consequences of my pledge became very real. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>Not only do planes release a lot of CO₂ during flight, the white ‘contrails’ they leave behind warm the atmosphere further. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/passenger-airplanes-on-air-busy-traffic-1089042554?src=lgi_phsJCpzeLwXItWfMbw-1-17&studio=1">FotoHelin/Shutterstock</a></figcaption></figure> Life on the rails When I told my managers that I intended to get to China by train, I was met with a mixture of responses. Some thought I was mad, some admired my principles, some thought I was an awkward bugger. Maybe they were all right. In any case, what I was doing had certainly created more work for myself. I began trying to convince senior staff to release funds from my research budget to arrange visas, and thinking through the nitty-gritty of a trip across Europe, Russia and a big chunk of China itself. The cost of the trains was over £2,000, dwarfing the £700 I could pay for a London to Beijing return flight. Time-wise, the train trip took just under two weeks each way. But in terms of carbon emissions my trip was a steal, contributing <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2019">just 10%</a> of the emissions of the equivalent flights. The cost, complexity and discomfort of such a long solo trip did occasionally make me wonder if it wouldn’t just be easier to fly (answer: it would). But I was determined to honour my pledge and show other academics – by my own extreme example – that it is possible to do international work without flights. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>The author meets a train guard in Siberia. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> Considering it involved 21 train connections, my journey went surprisingly smoothly. I took a series of “short” trips from Southampton, changing in London, Brussels, Cologne, Berlin and then onto my first sleeper train from Warsaw to Kiev (avoiding Belarus which would have required another visa). My first experience on the Kiev-bound, Soviet-style sleeper train was something of a shock. Unsure of the etiquette when sharing a tiny cabin with two or three others with limited English, I soon learned that body language, Google translate and sharing food breaks the ice. Luckily, my no-flying trip was a recurring source of conversation, fascination and bafflement for many of my fellow travellers. After one night in Kiev, I took another overnight train to Moscow. Russia was something of a test – on my return journey I travelled 2,600 miles between Irkutsk and Moscow, spending 90 hours on a single train. Had this not been a work trip, I would have gladly stopped more often. Making friends with fellow passengers – mainly Russians on work trips or family visits, or European and Chinese tourists doing the bucket list Trans-Siberian route – certainly helped pass the time. The Siberian scenery – millions of trees on a seemingly endless loop – became somewhat repetitive, but the monotony afforded me time to read, write, plan and contemplate. The most spectacular journey was the Trans-Mongolian section, passing the edge of Lake Baikal, the world’s largest lake rimmed with snow-capped mountains, over the green steppes of northern Mongolia, across the Gobi desert, and finally through the mountainous valleys encircling Beijing. It’s hard not to be awed and inspired that these train lines exist in such remote parts of our planet. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1003%2C1003&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1003%2C1003&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>The track stretches for miles across the Mongolian plains. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> Calling at Beijing China now has more high-speed railways than the rest of the world combined, and they do it in style. Beijing to Shanghai, a trip covering 1,300km, takes less than four and a half hours, with a solid internet connection throughout and the most legroom I enjoyed on any of my trips. The downer is that China’s electrified trains will, <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-wrestles-with-insecure-gas-supplies-but-stays-strong-on-longer-term-plan-for-renewables-117445">like most of their electricity</a>, be powered by coal. But on the upside, these trains are likely to take passengers off domestic flights – a lesson for Europe and the US. I enjoyed using them to visit my other field sites in Hangzhou and Ningbo before finally retracing my steps back, over 6,000 miles to the UK, clutching a load of new data, a heap of memories, and a sore back. The focus group data I collected in China, with members of their urban middle classes, has enforced my view that both ‘bottom-up’ social and cultural pressure, as well as “top-down” infrastructure and fiscal policy will be required in any country facing up the complex challenges of climate change. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>The author at the end of his outward journey in Tiananmen Square. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> I admit that my story is somewhat privileged – not everyone can take the train to China for work, and I doubt I’ll make a habit of it. Much depends on geography too. The UK is relatively well connected by surface transport options like rail, but many still fly - the UK has the <a href="https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2018-10-24-02.aspx">third largest</a> air passenger market, behind only the US and China. The bigger policy goal is to make train tickets less expensive relative to flights. In the meantime, academics can play a leadership role, both individually and <a href="https://theconversation.com/researchers-set-an-example-fly-less-111046">institutionally</a>. Universities could consider publishing records of staff flights, building low-carbon travel modes into grant proposals by default, and making videoconferencing facilities fantastic. Recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619311862">research</a> has shown, unsurprisingly, that climate researchers are taken more seriously if they practise what they preach. If we can lead by example in reducing our own flying carbon footprints while still conducting great research, then others – students, policymakers and other professionals – are far more likely to take notice. Writen by Roger Tyers. Republished with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/southampton-to-shanghai-by-train-one-climate-change-researchers-quest-to-avoid-flying-120015" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Getty Images

International Travel

Building and construction emissions and energy use reaches record levels

Despite improvements in energy efficiency, greenhouse pollution levels from the building and construction sector reached an all-time high in 2021. A new report on the building and construction sector by the United Nations Environment Programme released for COP27 found energy demand in buildings – for heating, cooling, lighting and equipment – increased by 4% from 2020 levels. As a result, the sector’s emissions increased 5% compared to 2020. While the increase partly reflects a re-bound in building and construction activities after the pandemic, energy and emissions levels were also above 2019 levels. This is significant because the sector accounts for around a third of total energy demand, the report says. The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the opening forum of COP27 that the future of the planet is in our hands. “…and the clock is ticking. We are in the fight of our lives. And we are losing. Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing. Global temperatures keep rising. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator. “ With the release of the report, UNEP executive director, Inger Andersen added: “If we do not rapidly cut emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, we will be in deeper trouble.” The UNEP report argues investments in energy efficiency must be sustained in the face of growing crises – such as the war in Ukraine and rising energy and living costs – to help with reducing energy demand, avoiding greenhouse gas pollution and reducing energy cost volatility. “The solution may lie in governments directing relief towards low and zero-carbon building investment activities through financial and non-financial incentives,” Andersen says. Also critical to reducing the sector’s emissions are including buildings in climate pledges under the Paris Agreement – known as Nationally Determined Contributions – and mandatory building energy codes. The report’s recommendations include: building coalitions of stakeholders in support of sustainable buildings, governments introducing mandatory building energy codes and government policies, increasing investment in energy efficiency and commitments from industry. <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=222598&title=Building+and+construction+emissions+and+energy+use+reaches+record+levels" width="1" height="1" /> <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/building-emissions-reach-record-levels/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This article</a> was originally published on Cosmos Magazine and was written by Petra Stock. Image: Getty Images </div>

Real Estate

Climate change: the fairest way to tax carbon is to make air travel more expensive

Despite the fact that poorer people generally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.12">have lower emissions</a>, taxes on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) our activities emit tend to affect people on low incomes <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2cb1">more</a> than richer people. Having less money means you can ill afford a switch to an untaxed alternative, like an electric car, or pay for carbon-saving measures like home insulation. You are also more likely to struggle to use less of an essential good like petrol or gas for heating, even if the price goes up. Carbon taxes on energy that people use in their homes – for heating, cooking or watching TV – charge consumers for the emissions per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity, gas or oil used. Economists would say that these kinds of carbon taxes are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2cb1">regressive</a>, because using energy to heat and power your home is a necessity and poorer people will use a much higher share of their income to pay for these things – and the taxes – than richer people. While total emissions have been <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0419-7">falling</a> in several rich countries over the last few years, emissions from cars and other means of transport are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abee4e">growing</a>. The rise in air travel emissions has been especially rapid: a roughly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834">sevenfold increase</a> between 1960 and 2018 globally. What’s more, the fuels for heating and powering homes or driving cars are taxed, but the fuel airlines use is exempt due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-1940s-treaty-set-airlines-on-a-path-to-high-emissions-and-low-regulation-148818">an international agreement</a> from 1944. And although Europeans generally <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801831238X?via%3Dihub">disapprove</a> of carbon taxes, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09669582.2022.2115050">our study</a> has revealed one type which could prove popular. In the first analysis of its kind to consider the effect on different income bands, we found that carbon taxes on air travel – what we describe as luxury emissions – nearly always affect the rich more. <h2>Tax burdens from air travel</h2> Our research examined how the burden from four different taxes on air travel would fall across income groups in the UK. It shows that all of these taxes are progressive: they burden richer people more than poorer people as a proportion of income. This is because people on higher incomes are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2021.05.008">much more likely to fly</a>, and fly more often. Air travel taxes that apply to passengers could be levied on the emissions of each passenger per flight. People could also be taxed according to the distance they travel, or their seat class. An aeroplane’s economy class occupies the least space per person, while business- and first-class passengers take up more room and so are responsible for more emissions than the average passenger. A person could also be taxed for the number of flights they take. A <a href="https://afreeride.org/">frequent flyer levy</a> would exempt the first return flight a person takes in a year, but would tax subsequent flights at an increasing rate. We found that taxes that take both flight emissions and the number of flights per passenger into account distribute the tax burden fairest. The reason for this is that frequent air travel (all flights after the first return flight) is even more unequally distributed in society: the top 10% of emitters are responsible for 60.8% of flight emissions but for 83.7% of emissions from frequent flights. Who else except the wealthy is likely to be affected by taxes on air travel? We found that, in the UK, university graduates, employed people, young and middle-aged adults, residents of London, as well as first- and second-generation migrants are also more likely to fly than their counterparts, regardless of income. Our results showed that recent migrants with friends and family abroad are relatively likely to fly often, even when on a low income. So allowances or extra support for recent migrants could make the design of such taxes fairer. Overall, taxes on air travel are far more socially just than taxes on necessities such as home energy use and could curb luxury emissions in a way that nurtures broad support for more sweeping decarbonisation measures such as those designed to limit car travel, like <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01057-y">expanding bus and cycling lanes</a>. So why do politicians and others claim, as former UK treasury minister Robert Jenrick did in 2019, that air travel taxes <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8128492/labour-holiday-tax-family-break/">disproportionately hit the poor</a>? It’s possible that they underestimate how little people in low-income groups actually fly, perhaps due to their typically middle- and upper-class backgrounds. A less charitable interpretation is that they have ulterior motives for opposing such taxes. Social scientists claim that exaggerating or misrepresenting the social justice consequences of environmental policy is one of the most common <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-denial-hasnt-gone-away-heres-how-to-spot-arguments-for-delaying-climate-action-141991">arguments </a>used to stall vital action on climate change. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-the-fairest-way-to-tax-carbon-is-to-make-air-travel-more-expensive-191632" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Travel Tips

Warming oceans may force New Zealand’s sperm and blue whales to shift to cooler southern waters

The world’s oceans are absorbing more than <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/ocean-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">90% of the excess heat and energy</a> generated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. But, as the oceans keep warming, rising sea temperatures generate unprecedented cascading effects that include the melting of polar ice, rising seas, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. This in turn has profound impacts on marine biodiversity and the lives and livelihoods of coastal communities, especially in island nations such as New Zealand. In our latest <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007075?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a>, we focused on great whales – sperm and blue whales in particular. They are crucial for maintaining healthy marine ecosystems, but have limited options to respond to climate change: either adapt, die, or move to stay within optimal habitats. We used mathematical models to predict how they are likely to respond to warming seas by the end of the century. Our results show a clear southward shift for both species, mostly driven by rising temperatures at the sea surface. <h2>Computing the fate of whales</h2> Data on the local abundance of both whales species are <a href="https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v690/p201-217/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deficient</a>, but modelling provides a powerful tool to predict how their range is likely to shift. We used a <a href="http://macroecointern.dk/pdf-reprints/AraujoNew2007.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">combination of mathematical models</a> (known as correlative species distribution models) to predict the future range shifts of these whale species as a response to three future climate change scenarios of differing severity, as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC</a>). We applied these models, using the whales’ present distributions, to build a set of environmental “rules” that dictate where each species can live. Using climate-dependent data such as sea-surface temperature and chlorophyll A (a measure of phytoplankton growth), as well as static data such as water depth and distance to shore, we applied these rules to forecast future habitat suitability. We chose a scenario of “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">modest</a>” response to cutting greenhouse gas emissions (the IPCC’s mitigation strategy RCP4.5), which is the most likely given the current policies, and a worst-case scenario (no policy to cut emissions, RCP8.5), assuming the reality will likely be somewhere between the two. Our projections suggest current habitats in the ocean around the North Island may become unsuitable if sea-surface temperatures continue to rise. These range shifts become even stronger with increasing severity of climate change. For sperm whales, which are currently abundant off Kaikōura where they support eco-tourism businesses, the predicted distribution changes are even more evident than for blue whales, depending on the climate change scenario. While our results do not predict an overall reduction in suitable habitat that would lead to local extinctions, the latitudinal range shifts are nevertheless bound to have important ecological consequences for New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them. <h2>How whales maintain ecosystems</h2> Great whales are marine ecosystem engineers. They modify their habitats (or create new ones), to suit their needs. In fact, these activities create conditions that other species rely on to survive. They engineer their environment on several fronts. By feeding in one place and releasing their faeces in another, whales convey minerals and other nutrients such as nitrogen and iron from the deep water to the surface, as well as across regions. This process, known as a “<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0013255" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whale pump</a>”, makes these nutrients available for phytoplankton and other organisms to grow. This is very important because phytoplankton contributes about <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/plankton-revealed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">half of all oxygen to the atmosphere</a> and also captures <a href="https://www.imf.org/Publications/fandd/issues/2019/12/natures-solution-to-climate-change-chami" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 40% of all released carbon dioxide</a>. By helping the growth of phytoplankton, whales indirectly contribute to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tiny-plankton-drive-processes-in-the-ocean-that-capture-twice-as-much-carbon-as-scientists-thought-136599" target="_blank" rel="noopener">natural ocean carbon sink</a>. On top of this, each great whale accumulates about <a href="https://www.arcticwwf.org/the-circle/stories/protecting-the-earth-by-protecting-whales/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">33 tonnes of carbon dioxide in their body</a>, which they take to the ocean floor when they die and their carcass sinks. <figure></figure> Ultimately, the impact of warming oceans on whale distribution is an additional stress factor on ecosystems already under pressure from wider threats, including acidification, pollution and over-exploitation. <h2>A way forward to help whales</h2> Sperm whales are the largest toothed whales (odontocetes) and deep-diving apex predators. They primarily feed on squid and fish that live near the bottom of the sea. Blue whales are baleen whales (mysticetes) and filter small organisms from the water. They feed at the surface on zooplankton, particularly dense krill schools along coastlines where cold water from the deep ocean rises toward the surface (so-called <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upwelling areas</a>). These differences in feeding habits lead to divergent responses to ocean warming. Blue whales show a more distinct southerly shift than sperm whales, particularly in the worst-case scenario, likely because they feed at the surface where ocean warming will be more exacerbated than in the deep sea. Both species have important foraging grounds off New Zealand which may be compromised in the future. Sperm whales are currently occurring regularly off Kaikōura, while blue whales forage in the South Taranaki Bight. Despite these ecological differences, our results show that some future suitable areas around the South Island and offshore islands are common to both species. These regions could be considered sanctuaries for both species to retreat to or expand their habitat in a warming world. This should warrant <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/assets/Publications/Files/Environmental-Report-Card-Marine-Areas-with-Legal-protection_0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased protection of these areas</a>. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/warming-oceans-may-force-new-zealands-sperm-and-blue-whales-to-shift-to-cooler-southern-waters-188522" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Supermarket delivery by robot better for the climate

Along with their <a href="https://twitter.com/historymatt/status/1525776275939418113" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cult following on social media</a>, autonomous delivery robots travelling on footpaths could be the most climate-friendly way to do your grocery shopping. Around the world, <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/will-covid-19-change-our-cities/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">COVID-19 has seen a change</a> in the way people shop for groceries. Instead of driving to the supermarket more people are ordering online for pick-up or home delivery, and even in some places, delivery <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/robotics/drone-delivery-groceries-canberra/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">by drone</a> or robot. In the United States supermarket home delivery services grew 54% between 2019 and 2020. In Australia, Woolworths and Coles experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/coles-and-woolworths-are-moving-to-robot-warehouses-and-on-demand-labour-as-home-deliveries-soar-166556" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">unprecedented demand.</a> The rapid growth in e-commerce has seen an increased focus on the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/sustainability/to-help-the-environment-should-you-shop-in-store-or-online/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">‘last-mile’ delivery</a>. A study by University of Michigan researchers and the Ford Motor Co modelled the emissions associated with the journey of a 36-item grocery basket from shop to home via a number of alternative transport options. Their study is <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.2c02050" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">published</a> in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. “This research lays the groundwork for understanding the impact of e-commerce on greenhouse gas emissions produced by the grocery supply chain,” says the study’s senior author Greg Keoleian<a href="https://seas.umich.edu/research/faculty/greg-keoleian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> director of the Centre for Sustainable Systems at University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability. The researchers modelled 72 different ways the groceries could travel from the warehouse to the customer. Across all options, the results showed ‘last-mile’ transport emissions to be the major source of <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/food-transport-emissions-cost/">supply chain emissions</a>. <div class="newsletter-box"> <div id="wpcf7-f6-p201307-o1" class="wpcf7" dir="ltr" lang="en-US" role="form"> </div> </div> They found the conventional option of driving to the supermarket in a petrol or diesel car to be the most polluting, creating six kilograms of carbon dioxide (CO2). All other choices had lower emissions, with footpath delivery robots the cleanest for the climate, at one kg CO2. A customer who switched to an electric vehicle could halve their emissions. But they could achieve a similar impact on emissions by reducing their shopping frequency. Without buying a new car, households who halved the frequency of supermarket trips reduced emissions by 44%. Keoleian says the study emphasises the “important role consumers can serve in reducing emissions through the use of trip chaining and by making carefully planned grocery orders.” Trip chaining refers to combining grocery shopping with other errands. All home delivery options had lower emissions than in-store shopping – in part due to the efficiencies gained in store operation and transport – with the potential to cut emissions by 22 – 65%. Footpath robots are being trialled in cities across the United States, Europe and China. These four or six wheeled robots carry items like supermarket shopping or retail items over short distances. Most have a delivery range around three kilometres. <figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> <div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"> <div class="entry-content-asset"> <div class="embed-wrapper"> <div class="inner"> <div class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered spai-bg-prepared" style="display: flex; max-width: 500px; width: 100%; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><iframe id="twitter-widget-0" class="spai-bg-prepared" style="display: block; position: static; visibility: visible; width: 500px; height: 612px; flex-grow: 1;" title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=CosmosMagazine&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1525776275939418113&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fcosmosmagazine.com%2Fearth%2Fclimate%2Frobot-delivery-better-for-the-climate%2F&sessionId=84ec360f0f0db6f38136f997db6585736d09d60a&siteScreenName=CosmosMagazine&theme=light&widgetsVersion=b7df0f50e1ec1%3A1659558317797&width=500px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" data-tweet-id="1525776275939418113"></iframe></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </figure> <a>Starship robots</a> is one example. Since launching in 2014, their robots have completed three million autonomous home deliveries in cities across Estonia, the United Kingdom, Finland and the United States. <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=201307&title=Supermarket+delivery+by+robot+better+for+the+climate" width="1" height="1" /> <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/robot-delivery-better-for-the-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/petra-stock" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Petra Stock</a>. Petra Stock has a degree in environmental engineering and a Masters in Journalism from University of Melbourne. She has previously worked as a climate and energy analyst. Image: Getty Images </div>

Technology

Supervolcanoes: deadly for life, deadly for climate

A collaboration of Australian and Swedish scientists has found that current carbon dioxide (CO2) emission rates are 200 times that of even the most catastrophic ancient supervolcano event. Known as the ‘Great Dying’, that event about 252 million years ago wiped out at least 90% of the species on Earth, and 96% of marine animals. But not all supervolcanic events are linked to mass extinctions. Recent research led by Dr Qiang Jiang, then at Curtin University’s School of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Australia, indicates that some past supervolcanic events involved a slower rate of release of CO2 or less CO2 overall, or both, and that this was unrelated to the size of the eruption. To investigate these ideas, Jiang and team looked at the two largest supervolcanic regions of the past 540 million years – approximately the time at which complex life forms emerged on Earth. The largest, the Ontang Java province, is now split into three pieces around New Zealand and the Solomon Islands, explains Dr Hugo Olierook, study co-author and Research Fellow of Geology at Curtin, with most of it underwater or inaccessible. So the team turned its attention to the second-largest volcanic province, known as the Kerguelen large volcanic province – a body of solidified lava that’s three times the size of France in the southern Indian Ocean. The researchers dated samples collected from Kerguelen using Argon-Argon dating, which indicated an age of around 120 million years. “The new age data revealed that the Kerguelen eruptions were, in fact, active right across the global oceanic anoxic event 120 million years ago,” says Professor Fred Jourdan, Director of the Western Australian Argon Isotope Facility at Curtin. “But while they may have rapidly degraded the environment for marine organisms, it did not lead to a deadly mass extinction.” Armed with powerful microscopes and lasers, the team then looked deep inside the basalt samples for tiny (10-micron diameter) frozen magma blobs known as inclusions and measured the pockets of volatiles – molecules that become gasses easily (water, CO2 and hydrogen sulphide, for instance) – released from the magma blob as it solidified and shrank. When compared to similar gas studies of supervolcanoes associated with mass-extinction events, Jiang and team found that the Kerguelen province emitted at least five times less CO2 and at a rate 30 times slower than volcanic eruptions that wiped out entire life forms. Out of the big five extinction events since animals arose, four have been attributable to supervolcanoes, which deplete oceans of oxygen and cause global climate change on time scales too small for evolutionary adaption of many land and marine animals. Earth does have mechanisms through which carbon is drawn down into oceans, rocks and soils, explains Olierook. “Shells incorporate carbon into their structure, and oceans themselves draw down carbon into ocean beds, but this happens on the order of a few hundreds of thousands of years.” When the rates of CO2 emissions far outpace the drawdown cycle – such as during CO2-rich supervolcanic events, then the balance is upset. So, why are some supervolcanoes rich in CO2? There are a few likely reasons. When hot magma rises to the surface, it can interact with the rock layers it cuts through. In the case of CO2-rich supervolcanoes, Olierook says that the magma has intruded through “organic rich sedimentary basins, heating them up and turning to a sort of peat and coal, the kind of material that easily becomes CO2”. In the case of the two largest supervolcanoes, they “sat in the middle of the ocean. So, there was no really big amount of organic-rich material there,” he says. There is also the possibility that the rising magma itself is carbon-rich – something Olierook hopes to research further in the future. Finally, the research team compared the current rates of CO2 emission with those during the supervolcanic events that resulted in catastrophic mass extinctions. “Alarmingly our calculations also show that we are now currently emitting carbon dioxide 200 times faster than those supervolcanic eruptions that caused the most severe mass extinctions,” says Olierook. While this sounds like bad news all around, it also contains a faint glimmer of hope. “If we’re able to slow down our CO2 emissions now, we will actually see the effects of slowing it down now,” says Olierook. “We are certainly not at the point of having the highest ever CO2 in our atmosphere, yet – there was far more CO2 in the atmosphere, say 100 million years ago. “So, if we can focus on slowing the rate of CO2 emissions down, we could get to a level where our planet can cope with the emitted CO2.” This article originally appeared on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/supervolcanoes-deadly-life-and-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Clare Kenyon. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Travelling around the globe might not have to cost the Earth

The last time you booked a flight online, you may have been offered the chance to ‘offset’ the carbon produced by your travel. This is due in part to recognition that the aviation industry is responsible for around 5% of human-made emissions resulting in climate change. The efforts by this sector to respond to its environmental impact can range from switching fuels (from coal to biomass, for instance), more efficient combustion processes (by improving aircraft engines, for example), protecting forests or promoting sustainable development in local communities. Now, in a potentially ground-breaking innovation for long-haul flights, a team of researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürisch (ETH Zurich) have developed an all-in-one solar-powered tower that’s able to use energy from the Sun’s rays to convert water and carbon dioxide into synthetic fuels. Think: water + carbon dioxide = energy. Sound familiar? Well, it should. It’s what many plants do to make energy for themselves. The ETH Zurich process has a lot in common, really, explains Dr Jessica Allen, a chemical engineer and renewable energy technologies expert at the University of Newcastle. Although in this case, “industrial photosynthesis might be a better term as this particular process doesn’t involve any physiological mechanisms like plants and living material”, says Allen. The proof-of-concept solar tower consists of 169 Sun-tracking panels that reflect and concentrate sunlight into a tower-top solar reactor. Here, energy from the Sun’s rays meets a combination of water, carbon dioxide and a special structure made of ceria (cerium oxide), which is porous and “acts like a filter network, undergoing many reduction-oxidation (also known as redox) reactions”, says Allen. These reaction cycles produce syngas (synthesis gas), which is then converted to liquid fuels such as diesel and kerosene (which is used as jet fuel for long-haul flights) via a well-established process known as the Fischer-Tropsch reaction, which typically occurs in the presence of metal catalysts, temperatures of 150–300°C and pressures of several tens of atmospheres. Much work remains to translate the process to industrial scale. Currently, the energy efficiency of the process is only at 4%, meaning that out of 100 parts of energy available, only four parts are captured in the process. This is something the researchers are keen to push up towards around 15%. According to Allen, that’s still at the low end of the energy efficiency of current solar-to-electricity and solar-to-thermal energy generation. She says that efficiency is crucial when it comes to systems that use land area for solar collection (such as solar panels and the ETH Zurich tower’s reflectors): “A low efficiency will mean a large land area to generate the required fuel.” Where the CO2 comes from is also very important. At present, it’s injected into the system, but the next obvious step is to start capturing it directly from the air. At that point the fuel production process might be considered carbon neutral, as the amount of CO2 captured from the air is the same as the amount released during fuel combustion. Direct-from-air carbon dioxide capture comes at a cost, though. “There is a fairly major energy penalty for doing direct air capture, because it’s quite hard to filter out carbon dioxide from the rest of the gasses,” says Allen. Then there’s the carbon footprint related to the manufacture and production of equipment and materials, but Allen urges a long-term outlook: “In the system that we’re in at the moment there will be an emission penalty for the materials, however, in the long term, we’ll eventually be manufacturing these things using zero emission approaches.” This will make the whole process – and not just the fuel itself – carbon neutral. The average fuel consumption of a Boeing 747 (which are still used as long-haul cargo transport today) is around 4L per second. For a flight of 10 hours, this equates to 144,000L of fuel. In the future, EHT Zurich researchers will work to increase the system’s energy efficiency to 15%, capture more heat in the process and improve the ceria structures in the reactor in addition to capturing CO2 directly from the air. Their long-term aim is to scale the process to an industrial size – in which enough fuel can be produced to truly fly us into a carbon-neutral aviation future. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/science/carbon-neutral-travel-wont-cost-earth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Clare Kenyon. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Carbon monoxide: what is it and why is it deadly?

Many of us are familiar with the typical results of burning fuels such as coal, natural gas and oil. The reaction produces heat which we harness to warm our homes, heat water and cook food, power vehicles and generate electricity. Combustion also produces gases, most obviously carbon dioxide. This is produced when the carbon, locked away in the petrol, gas or wood, reacts with oxygen in the air. We can’t see or smell carbon dioxide – it’s non-toxic and is unreactive – so most of the time as it drifts away into the air around us and we don’t give it a moment’s thought. But carbon dioxide isn’t the only gas that results from burning of fuels. Carbon monoxide can also be produced. This too is invisible, tasteless and odourless. Unlike its chemical cousin, though, carbon monoxide is extremely poisonous. The difference between the two gases is small but very significant. Carbon dioxide has a central carbon atom flanked by two oxygens, hence the “di” (meaning two) in the name, and the chemical formula CO₂. It is a very stable molecule because the carbon atom has fully reacted with the oxygens, leaving it with no potential to form bonds with anything else. Carbon monoxide consists of a carbon and a single oxygen (hence the “mono” in the name and the formula CO). As a result the carbon is still able to react with other molecules. This reactivity is the root of its poisonous nature. <h2>Carbon monoxide poisoning</h2> Carbon monoxide poisoning results from the way it interacts with proteins that carry oxygen around your body. Normally haemoglobin in your blood binds oxygen as it passes through your lungs and then releases it where it is needed in the various organs of your body. Carbon monoxide also binds to haemoglobin, and it sticks over 200 times stronger than oxygen. This means it blocks the haemoglobin’s ability to bind oxygen and limits the body’s ability to move oxygen around the body. The early symptoms of carbon monoxide poisoning include headaches or dizziness, breathlessness, nausea, tiredness, chest and stomach pains and visual problems. These are quite general and are easily confused with viral infections, food poisoning or just being tired. So low level poisoning is often overlooked. Higher doses result in loss of consciousness, long term heart and brain damage and death. So how can we avoid being poisoned by this gas? Carbon monoxide is produced at high levels when fuels aren’t burnt correctly. This frequently occurs when wood, coal and charcoal fires are left to smoulder, or petrol, gas and kerosene appliances (such as boilers and space heaters) are not maintained properly. This is especially dangerous if generators, charcoal burners or barbecues are used in confined and poorly ventilated spaces such as tents and bars which allow CO to build up in the space with deadly consequences. Early <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/06/30/carbon-monoxide-may-have-caused-enyobeni-tavern-deaths-paul-o-sullivan">media</a> reports suggest that carbon monoxide caused the deaths of <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/enyobeni-tavern-tragedy-what-we-know-so-far-20220627">21 young people</a> at a tavern (club) in South Africa’s Eastern Cape province in June. However, officials are still investigating and are yet to confirm the cause of these tragic deaths. <h2>Keeping safe</h2> Carbon monoxide poisoning is deadly, but it can also be easily avoided. Maintenance: Make sure your vehicles, boilers, chimneys, generators and space heaters are inspected and maintained by a qualified technician at least once a year. During the rest of the year, check that gas flames are blue and not yellow or orange. And look out for soot around appliances and pilot lights that go out frequently. Ventilation: Never use camp stoves, barbecues or charcoal heaters indoors or in tents. Only ever use petrol and diesel generators outdoors and well away from open windows and doors. Never use gas space heaters while you are sleeping, and only ever use them in well ventilated spaces. Never leave a vehicle running in a garage. Monitoring: Buy carbon monoxide monitors and install them near boilers, fireplaces and anywhere where you might use an indoor space heater. Seek treatment: If you think you or anyone near you is suffering from carbon monoxide poisoning then seek medical treatment. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-monoxide-what-is-it-and-why-is-it-deadly-186949" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Home Hints & Tips

Keen to retrofit your home to lower its carbon footprint and save energy? Consider these 3 things

If you’re anything like me, you’re increasingly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-16/work-from-home-productivity-commission-study/100465258" target="_blank" rel="noopener">working from home</a>, one that was built before energy efficiency measures were introduced in Australia. With temperatures along the east coast plunging and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-gas-prices-go-from-10-a-gigajoule-to-800-a-gigajoule-an-expert-on-the-energy-crisis-engulfing-australia-184304" target="_blank" rel="noopener">power bills skyrocketing</a>, heating (and cooling) our homes is an energy intensive, expensive affair. Almost <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-04/energy-efficiency-carbon-offset-homes-sharehouse-rentals/100590596" target="_blank" rel="noopener">8 million homes</a> across Australia lack sufficient insulation, use sub-par heating and cooling equipment, or are badly designed. Indeed, these 8 million pre-energy rated homes <a href="http://www.powerhousingaustralia.com.au/resources/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">account for 18% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions</a>. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-youre-renting-chances-are-your-home-is-cold-with-power-prices-soaring-heres-what-you-can-do-to-keep-warm-184472" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research finds</a> 26% of Australians across all housing types can’t stay warm at least half of the time during winter. Retrofitting this housing stock to be more energy efficient is essential to successfully meet Australia’s target of cutting emissions 43% by 2030, while finding comfort in our future of intensifying climate extremes. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> A take-away from the current energy supply squeeze: energy efficiency pays. Whether retrofit or new build, do it to high standards and reap the benefits. Also, we need proper minimum standards in buildings and fleet wide emissions standards for vehicles. — Frank Jotzo (@frankjotzo) <a href="https://twitter.com/frankjotzo/status/1536988473495736320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 15, 2022</a></blockquote> My <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/79914" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research into net-zero emissions retrofitting</a> identifies three broad categories that must be considered when retrofitting existing homes to be more climate friendly: <ol> <li> <a href="https://multicomfort.saint-gobain.co.uk/recommended-level-of-light-into-a-building/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">visual comfort</a>: the sufficient quality, quantity and distribution of light </li> <li> <a href="http://www.greeneducationfoundation.org/green-building-program-sub/learn-about-green-building/1239-thermal-comfort.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">thermal comfort</a>: determined by the temperature, humidity, air flow and a person’s physical condition </li> <li> energy consumption: the amount of energy we use, and the <a href="https://www.yourhome.gov.au/materials/embodied-energy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">energy used</a> in manufacturing, transporting, constructing, maintaining, and removal of materials to build our homes. </li> </ol> 1. Visual comfort It’s vital to understand how much sunlight the outside and interior of your home is exposed to. One can, accordingly, re-organise interior functions based on the demand for lighting, heating or cooling needs. During summer, spaces used often during the day, such as your home office, could benefit from being in places that receive less direct sunlight, so are cooler. In winter, consider moving your home office set up to a room with higher levels of direct sunlight, where it’s warmer. This will naturally reduce the amount of energy needed to cool or heat these rooms while allowing for comfortable working conditions. Other ways we can find more visual comfort include modifying the size of windows and skylights to let in more sunlight. To diffuse harsh lighting, consider <a href="https://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/common/public/documents/8d37431053e9065-Imap%202-1%20Sunshading.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">adding screens, sun baffles, overhangs, or pergolas</a> over windows. You can also replace your lights with LEDs equipped with linear controllers and motion sensors in places where lights tend to be left on. <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/households/lighting#:%7E:text=LEDs%20are%20better%20value%20for,bulbs%20ending%20up%20in%20landfill." target="_blank" rel="noopener">LEDs use around 75% less energy than halogen light bulbs</a>. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469149/original/file-20220616-11-lzxmcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469149/original/file-20220616-11-lzxmcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469149/original/file-20220616-11-lzxmcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469149/original/file-20220616-11-lzxmcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469149/original/file-20220616-11-lzxmcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469149/original/file-20220616-11-lzxmcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469149/original/file-20220616-11-lzxmcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469149/original/file-20220616-11-lzxmcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Moving your home office to rooms with more sunshine can help you save energy in winter. Unsplash, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> 2. Thermal comfort Older Australian homes are <a href="https://blog.csiro.au/draught-proof-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">incredibly draughty</a>, and a lot of the energy we spend cooling or heating our homes escapes outside due to poor insulation. Retrofitting to improve your home’s natural ventilation can reduce the number of times you need to switch on the heater or air conditioner. <a href="https://www.greenbuilding.org.au/Articles/Sealing-Building-Envelope.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sealing outside and internal surfaces</a> until they’re airtight is crucial. <a href="https://build.com.au/how-improve-your-homes-insulation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Different surfaces</a> – whether walls, floors or ceilings – require different methods, types and thicknesses of insulation. Walls, for instance, require a “blow-in” method. This can involve installing cellulose foam or <a href="https://build.com.au/glass-wool-insulation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">glasswool</a> (made from fibreglass) into the wall, via a <a href="https://build.com.au/wall-insulation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">small hole through the wall cavities</a> (for cellulose foam) or laying glasswool batts in wall cavities. Floors, on the other hand, can require insulation panels fitted between timber or steel supports or foam boards. <a href="https://zeroenergyproject.org/build/twelve-steps-affordable-zero-energy-home-construction-design/super-insulate-net-zero-building-envelope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Also important</a> is to choose materials and methods that maximise insulation while minimising thermal bridging. A <a href="https://blog.passivehouse-international.org/what-is-a-thermal-bridge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">thermal bridge</a> is a weak point where heat is lost, such as wall intersections, connecting points of mounting brackets, and even penetration points of electric cables. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469147/original/file-20220616-21-adexyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469147/original/file-20220616-21-adexyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469147/original/file-20220616-21-adexyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469147/original/file-20220616-21-adexyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469147/original/file-20220616-21-adexyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469147/original/file-20220616-21-adexyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469147/original/file-20220616-21-adexyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469147/original/file-20220616-21-adexyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Insulating the walls is crucial to stabilise temperatures inside. Shutterstock</figcaption></figure> Between <a href="https://blog.csiro.au/renovating-or-retrofitting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ten and 35%</a> of the energy we spend cooling or heating our homes escapes through single glazed windows and doors. Installing double or triple glazed windows and doors will go a long way to keep temperatures more stable inside. It’s worth noting the <a href="https://build.com.au/window-energy-rating-scheme" target="_blank" rel="noopener">energy performance rating systems</a> on measurement labels, which are often attached to window and door units you can buy in stores. Ultimately, a combination of improved natural ventilation and mechanical ventilation (such as air conditioners as fans) can result in considerable energy savings – <a href="https://thefifthestate.com.au/articles/making-the-building-do-the-work-natural-ventilation-design/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">up to 79%</a> in some instances. 3. Energy consumption While the above strategies will result in significant energy savings, it’s also vital to consider the energy required to produce and manufacture <a href="https://www.pembina.org/pub/embodied-carbon-retrofits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">retrofitting materials</a>. Consider using salvaged or recycled materials where possible, or choosing locally made products which avoid emissions associated with transport. Effectively installing solar panels can offset this “hidden” carbon. Let’s say you’ve done all you can to lower your home’s carbon footprint – you’ve rolled out insulation, installed double glazed windows and made the most of sunshine. You can then calculate the energy you still use to heat or cool your home. This number will determine how many rooftop solar panels you should install to break even, rather than simply installing as many panels that can fit. This will not only save you money, but also minimise waste. Researchers estimate that by 2047, Australia will accumulate <a href="https://theconversation.com/stop-removing-your-solar-panels-early-please-its-creating-a-huge-waste-problem-for-australia-160546" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1 million tonnes</a> of solar panel waste. It’s worth opting for solar panels with micro-inverters, which capture optimal energy performance per panel while allowing you to add more panels in future if needed. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469146/original/file-20220616-11210-4f8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469146/original/file-20220616-11210-4f8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469146/original/file-20220616-11210-4f8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469146/original/file-20220616-11210-4f8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469146/original/file-20220616-11210-4f8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469146/original/file-20220616-11210-4f8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469146/original/file-20220616-11210-4f8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469146/original/file-20220616-11210-4f8kun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Solar panels can offset some of the carbon associated with manufacturing the materials you’ve purchased. Shutterstock</figcaption></figure> Another option is to use <a href="https://www.radiantheatingandcooling.com.au/geothermal-or-air-source-heat-pumps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">air-source heat pumps</a>, which absorb heat from outside and bring it inside (like a reverse air conditioner). These can take the form of mini-split heat pumps for individual rooms, or multi-zone installations. They can sense indoor temperature, and operate at variable speeds and heating or cooling intensity, which means their energy performance is very efficient. My <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/79914" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> finds well-planned use of such systems can reduce the energy used for heating by 69% and cooling by 38%. It’s well worth the effort These retrofitting ideas might seem expensive, or take too much time. However, they’ll often save you money in the long run as energy prices become increasingly uncertain. You can look to <a href="https://www.everybuildingcounts.com.au/?__hstc=213300875.d01baaf20feef1321eed69f68f6b9ce7.1644286749265.1644286749265.1644286749265.1&__hssc=213300875.1.1644286749266&__hsfp=475898586" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Every Building Counts</a>, an initiative by the <a href="https://new.gbca.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Green Building Council</a> and the <a href="https://www.propertycouncil.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Property Council of Australia</a>, which provides practical plans for emission reduction. Australia can also learn from ongoing efforts by the <a href="https://energiesprong.org/?country=the-netherlands" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Energiesprong network</a> in the Netherlands. This network is industrialising energy efficiency with <a href="https://energiesprong.org/this-dutch-construction-innovation-shows-its-possible-to-quickly-retrofit-every-building/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prefabricated retrofitting building elements</a>. Some initiatives include lightweight insulated panels that can simply be placed in front of existing walls of homes. These panels are precisely fitted after carefully laser scanning a facade and robotically cutting openings to match existing homes. Harnessing contemporary technology is vital for a speedy net-zero transition.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175921/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nimish-biloria-772399" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nimish Biloria</a>, Associate Professor of Architecture, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936" target="_blank" rel="noopener">University of Technology Sydney</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/keen-to-retrofit-your-home-to-lower-its-carbon-footprint-and-save-energy-consider-these-3-things-175921" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original article</a>. Image: Getty Images

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Here are the most effective things you can do to fight climate change

Limiting global warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels requires reaching <a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-carbon-neutral-carbon-negative-confused-by-all-the-carbon-jargon-then-read-this-151382">net zero</a> emissions by the middle of this century. This means that, in less than three decades, we need to reverse more than a century of rising emissions and bring annual emissions down to near zero, while balancing out all remaining <a href="https://www.cdp.net/en/articles/climate/how-can-companies-handle-so-called-residual-emissions">unavoidable emissions</a> by actively removing carbon from the atmosphere. To help speed this process as individuals, we’ve got to do everything we can to cut down our use of fossil fuels. But many people <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-perils-perception-climate-change">aren’t aware</a> of the most effective ways to do this. Thankfully, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-key-points-in-the-ipcc-report-on-climate-change-impacts-and-adaptation-178195">latest report</a> by the UN climate change panel <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a> devotes a chapter to all the ways in which changes in people’s behaviour can accelerate the transition to net zero. The chapter includes an analysis of 60 individual actions which can help fight climate change, building on <a href="https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/faculty/news/article/5471/global-study-uncovers-best-ways-to-change-consumption-to-cut-carbon-footprint">research</a> led by Diana Ivanova at the University of Leeds – and to which I contributed. We grouped these actions into three areas: avoiding consumption, shifting consumption and improving consumption (making it more efficient). <h2>What to avoid</h2> By far the most effective things to avoid involve transport. Living <a href="https://theconversation.com/car-ownership-is-likely-to-become-a-thing-of-the-past-and-so-could-public-transport-110550">without a car</a>reduces greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 2 tonnes of CO₂ emissions per person per year, while avoiding a single long distance return flight cuts emissions by an average of 1.9 tonnes. That’s equivalent to driving a <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/co2-performance-of-new-passenger">typical EU car</a> more than 16,000km from <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Hamburg/Ulaanbaatar,+Mongolia/@50.3406451,40.6332697,4z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x47b161837e1813b9:0x4263df27bd63aa0!2m2!1d9.9936819!2d53.5510846!1m5!1m1!1s0x5d96925be2b18aab:0xe606927864a1847f!2m2!1d106.9057439!2d47.8863988!3e0">Hamburg, Germany to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia</a> and back. Since the vast majority of the world’s population do not fly at all – and of those who do, only a <a href="https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2021/03/31/majority-of-flights-taken-by-a-small-percentage-of-flyers/">small percentage</a> fly frequently – fliers can make very substantial reductions to their carbon footprints with each flight they avoid. <h2>What to shift</h2> But living sustainably is not just about giving things up. Large reductions in emissions can be achieved by shifting to a different way of doing things. Because driving is so polluting, for example, shifting to <a href="https://theconversation.com/12-best-ways-to-get-cars-out-of-cities-ranked-by-new-research-180642">public transport</a>, walking or cycling can make an enormous change, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-transformed-a-london-borough-into-a-game-to-get-fewer-people-travelling-by-car-heres-what-happened-171035">added benefits</a> for your personal health and local air pollution levels. Likewise, because of the high emissions associated with <a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-eating-is-a-big-climate-issue-but-isnt-getting-the-attention-it-deserves-170855">meat and dairy</a> – particularly those produced by farming sheep and cows – shifting towards more sustainable diets can substantially reduce your carbon footprint. A <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/veganism-environmental-impact-planet-reduced-plant-based-diet-humans-study-a8378631.html">totally vegan diet</a> is the most effective way to do this, but sizeable savings can be made simply by <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-the-meat-on-your-plate-is-killing-the-planet-76128">switching</a> from beef and lamb to pork and chicken. <h2>What to improve</h2> Finally, the things we do already could be made more efficient by improving <a href="https://theconversation.com/oceans-and-their-largest-inhabitants-could-be-the-key-to-storing-our-carbon-emissions-180901">carbon</a> efficiency at home: for example by using insulation and <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-space-for-a-heat-pump-heres-how-your-whole-street-could-get-off-gas-heating-180005">heat pumps</a>, or producing your own renewable energy by installing <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-panels-on-half-the-worlds-roofs-could-meet-its-entire-electricity-demand-new-research-169302">solar panels</a>. Switching from a combustion car to an electric one – ideally a battery EV, which generates <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2014/03/f9/thomas_fcev_vs_battery_evs.pdf">much larger reductions</a> in emissions than hybrid or fuel cell EVs – will make your car journeys more efficient. Plus, its effect on emissions will increase as time goes by and the amount of electricity generated by renewables grows. In the race to net zero, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-breakdown-even-if-we-miss-the-1-5-c-target-we-must-still-fight-to-prevent-every-single-increment-of-warming-178581">every tonne of CO₂</a> really does count. If more of us take even a few of these suggestions into account, we’re collectively more likely to be able to achieve the ambitious goals set out in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-agreement-is-working-as-intended-but-weve-still-got-a-long-way-to-go-173478">Paris climate agreement</a>. Of course, these changes will need to be backed by major political action on sustainability at the same time. If we’re to use less fossil fuel energy, the use of fossil fuels needs to be either restricted or made more expensive. The social consequences of this need to be carefully managed so that <a href="https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing">carbon pricing schemes</a> can benefit people on lower incomes: which can happen if <a href="https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/policy-briefs/taxreform.html">revenues are redistributed</a> to take the financial burden off poorer households. But there’s a whole lot more that governments could do to help people to live more sustainably, such as providing better, safer public transport and “<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-walking-to-cycling-how-we-get-around-a-city-is-a-gender-equality-issue-new-research-175014">active travel</a>” infrastructure (such as bike lanes and pedestrian zones) so that people have alternatives to driving and flying. There’s no avoiding the fact that if political solutions are to address climate change with the urgency our global situation requires, these solutions will limit the extent to which we can indulge in carbon-intensive behaviours. More than anything, we must vote into power those prepared to make such tough decisions for the sake of our planet’s future. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/here-are-the-most-effective-things-you-can-do-to-fight-climate-change-183555" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

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Global emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020, new analysis shows

Global carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions and are likely to reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2021-386/">our analysis</a> released today has found. The troubling finding comes as world leaders meet at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow in a last-ditch bid to keep dangerous global warming at bay. The analysis was undertaken by the <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget">Global Carbon Project</a>, a consortium of scientists from around the world who produce, collect and analyse global greenhouse gas information. The fast recovery in CO₂ emissions, following last year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-are-down-by-an-unprecedented-7-but-dont-start-celebrating-just-yet-151757">sharp drop</a>, should come as no surprise. The world’s strong economic rebound has created a surge in demand for energy, and the global energy system is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Most concerning is the long-term upward trends of CO₂ emissions from oil and gas, and this year’s growth in coal emissions, which together are far from trending towards net-zero by 2050. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="people seated around U-shaped table" /> The troubling findings come as world leaders meet at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. Evan Vucci/AP <h2>The global emissions picture</h2> Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels dropped by 5.4% in 2020, compared to the previous year. But they are set to increase by about 4.9% above 2020 levels this year, reaching 36.4 billion tonnes. This brings them almost back to 2019 levels. We can expect another 2.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions this year from the net effect of everything we do to the land, including deforestation, degradation and re-vegetation. This brings us to a total of 39.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ to be emitted by the end of this year. The fast growth in emissions matches the corresponding large increase in energy demand as the global economy opens up, with the help of <a href="https://www.f4b-initiative.net/post/majority-of-17-2-trillion-covid-stimulus-packages-doing-more-harm-than-good-to-environment">US$17.2 trillion</a> in economic stimulus packages around the world. CO₂ emissions from all fossil fuel types (coal, oil and natural gas) grew this year, with emissions from coal and natural gas set to grow more in 2021 than they fell in 2020. Emissions from global coal use were declining before the pandemic hit in early 2020 but they surged back this year. Emissions from global gas use have returned to the rising trend seen before the pandemic. CO₂ emissions from global oil use remain well below pre-pandemic levels but are expected to increase in coming years as road transport and aviation recover from COVID-related restrictions. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> Global fossil CO₂ emissions. Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget <h2>Nations leading the emissions charge</h2> Emissions from China have recovered faster than other countries. It’s among the few countries where emissions grew in 2020 (by 1.4%) followed by a projected growth of 4% this year. Taking these two years together, CO₂ emissions from China in 2021 are projected to be 5.5% above 2019 levels, reaching 11.1 billion tonnes. China accounted for 31% of global emissions in 2020. Coal emissions in China are estimated to grow by 2.4% this year. If realised, it would match what was thought to be China’s peak coal emissions in 2013. India’s CO₂ emissions are projected to grow even faster than China’s this year at 12.6%, after a 7.3% fall last year. Emissions this year are set to be 4.4% above 2019 levels – reaching 2.7 billion tonnes. India accounted for 7% of global emissions in 2020. Emissions from both the US and European Union are projected to rise 7.6% this year. It would lead to emissions that are, respectively, 3.7% and 4.2% below 2019 levels. US and EU, respectively, accounted for 14% and 7% of global emissions in 2020. Emissions in the rest of the world (including all international transport, particularly aviation) are projected to rise 2.9% this year, but remain 4.2% below 2019 levels. Together, these countries represent 59% of global emissions. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> Regional fossil CO₂ emissions 2019-2021. Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget <h2>The remaining carbon budget</h2> The relatively large changes in annual emissions over the past two years have had no discernible effect in the speed at which CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere. CO₂ concentrations, and associated global warming, are driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases – particularly CO₂ – since the beginning of the industrial era. This accumulation has accelerated in recent decades. To stop further global warming, global CO₂ emissions must stop or reach net-zero – the latter meaning that any remaining CO₂ emissions would have to be compensated for by removing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere. Carbon budgets are a useful way of measuring how much CO₂ can be emitted for a given level of global warming. In our latest analysis, we updated the carbon budget outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://templatelab.com/climate-change-report-2021/">IPCC</a>) in August this year. From the beginning of 2022, the world can emit an additional 420 billion tonnes of CO₂ to limit global warming to 1.5℃, or 11 years of emissions at this year’s rate. To limit global warming to 2℃, the world can emit an additional 1,270 billion tonnes of CO₂ – or 32 years of emissions at the current rate. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> The remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.5℃ and 2℃. Updated from IPCC 2021. Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget These budgets are the compass to net-zero emissions. Consistent with the pledge by <a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">many countries</a> to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, CO₂ emissions need to decline by 1.4 billion tonnes each year, on average. This is an amount comparable to the drop during 2020, of 1.9 billion tonnes. This fact highlights the extraordinary challenge ahead and the need to increase short- and long-term commitments to drive down global emissions.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170866/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pep-canadell-16541">Pep Canadell</a>, Chief research scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/corinne-le-quere-315624">Corinne Le Quéré</a>, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-east-anglia-1268">University of East Anglia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/glen-peters-114835">Glen Peters</a>, Research Director, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/center-for-international-climate-and-environment-research-oslo-707">Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pierre-friedlingstein-903247">Pierre Friedlingstein</a>, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-exeter-1190">University of Exeter</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robbie-andrew-422668">Robbie Andrew</a>, Senior Researcher, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/center-for-international-climate-and-environment-research-oslo-707">Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rob-jackson-213135">Rob Jackson</a>, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/stanford-university-890">Stanford University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-almost-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-after-unprecedented-drop-in-2020-new-analysis-shows-170866">original article</a>. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

It's in the trees: Climate change could hamper carbon absorption

From rainforests to savannas, ecosystems on land absorb <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/21/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">almost 30%</a> of the carbon dioxide human activities release into the atmosphere. These ecosystems are critical to stop the planet warming beyond 1.5℃ this century – but climate change may be weakening their capacity to offset global emissions. This is a key issue that <a href="https://www.ozflux.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OzFlux</a>, a research network from Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, has been investigating for the past 20 years. Over this time, we’ve identified which ecosystems absorb the most carbon, and have been learning how they respond to extreme weather and climate events such as drought, floods and bushfires. The biggest absorbers of atmospheric carbon dioxide in Australia are savannas and temperate forests. But as the effects of climate change intensify, ecosystems such as these are at risk of reaching tipping points of <a href="https://theconversation.com/existential-threat-to-our-survival-see-the-19-australian-ecosystems-already-collapsing-154077" target="_blank" rel="noopener">collapse</a>. In our latest <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.16141" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research paper</a>, we look back at the two decades of OzFlux’s findings. So far, the ecosystems we studied are showing resilience by rapidly pivoting back to being carbon sinks after a disturbance. This can be seen, for example, in leaves growing back on trees soon after bushfire. But how long will this resilience remain? As climate change pressures intensify, evidence suggests carbon sinks may lose their ability to bounce back from climate-related disasters. This reveals vital gaps in our knowledge. Australian ecosystems absorb 150 million tonnes of carbon each year Between 2011 and 2020, land-based ecosystems sequestered <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/21/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">11.2 billion tonnes</a> (29%) of global CO₂ emissions. To put this into perspective, that’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/global-co2-emissions-rebounded-to-their-highest-level-in-history-in-2021" target="_blank" rel="noopener">roughly similar</a> to the amount China emitted in 2021. OzFlux has enabled the first comprehensive assessment of <a href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/851/2013/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Australia’s carbon budget</a> from 1990 to 2011. This found Australia’s land-based ecosystems accumulate some 150 million tonnes of CO₂ each year on average – helping to offset national fossil fuel emissions by around one third. For example, every hectare of Australia’s temperate forests absorbs 3.9 tonnes of carbon in a year, <a href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/5895/2016/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to OzFlux data</a>. Likewise, every hectare of Australia’s savanna absorbs 3.4 tonnes of carbon. This is about 100 times larger than a hectare of Mediterranean woodland or shrubland. <hr /> <iframe class="flourish-embed-iframe" style="width: 786.354px; height: 600px;" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/9129848/embed" width="100%" height="400" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe> <div style="width: 100%!; margin-top: 4px!important; text-align: right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/9129848/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/9129848" target="_top"><img src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg" alt="Made with Flourish" /></a></div> <hr /> But it’s important to note that the amount of carbon Australian ecosystems can sequester fluctuates widely from one year to the next. This is due to, for instance, the natural climate variability (such as in La Niña or El Niño years), and disturbances (such as fire and land use changes). In any case, it’s clear these ecosystems will play an important role in Australia reaching its target of net-zero emissions by 2050. But how effective will they continue to be as the climate changes? How climate change weakens these carbon sinks Extreme climate variability – <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-of-the-most-extreme-disasters-in-colonial-australian-history-climate-scientists-on-the-floods-and-our-future-risk-178153" target="_blank" rel="noopener">flooding rains</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-can-dry-out-soil-in-weeks-new-research-shows-what-they-look-like-in-australia-161286" target="_blank" rel="noopener">droughts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-angry-more-often-march-heatwave-signals-a-new-normal-13068" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heatwaves</a> – along with bushfires and land clearing, can weaken these carbon sinks. While many Australian ecosystems show resilience to these stresses, we found their recovery time may be shortening due to more frequent and extreme events, potentially compromising their long-term contribution towards offsetting emissions. Take bushfire as an example. When it burns a forest, the carbon stored in the plants is released back into the atmosphere as smoke - so the ecosystem becomes a carbon source. Likewise, under drought or heatwave conditions, water available to the roots becomes depleted and limits photosynthesis, which can tip a forest’s carbon budget from being a sink to a carbon source. If that drought or heatwave endures for a long time, or a bushfire returns before the forest has recovered, its ability to regain its carbon sink status is at risk. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454278/original/file-20220325-17-1u3m5n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454278/original/file-20220325-17-1u3m5n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454278/original/file-20220325-17-1u3m5n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454278/original/file-20220325-17-1u3m5n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454278/original/file-20220325-17-1u3m5n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454278/original/file-20220325-17-1u3m5n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454278/original/file-20220325-17-1u3m5n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454278/original/file-20220325-17-1u3m5n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Regrowth after bushfires return forests from carbon source to carbon sink. Shutterstock</figcaption></figure> Learning how carbon sinks may shift in Australia and New Zealand can have a global impact. Both countries are home to a broad range of climates – from the wet tropics, to the Mediterranean climate of southwest Australia, to the temperate climate in the southeast. Our unique ecosystems have evolved to suit these diverse climates, which are underrepresented in the global network. This means long-term ecosystem observatories – <a href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/5895/2016/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OzFlux</a>, along with the <a href="https://www.tern.org.au" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network</a> – provide a vital natural laboratory for understanding ecosystems in this era of accelerating climate change. Over its 20 years, OzFlux has made crucial contributions to the international understanding of climate change. A few of its major findings include: <ul> <li> the 2011 La Niña event led to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/droughts-and-flooding-rains-it-takes-three-oceans-to-explain-australias-wild-21st-century-weather-56264" target="_blank" rel="noopener">greening of interior Australia</a>, with ecosystems flourishing from increased water availability </li> <li> <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-heatwave-conditions-tasmanias-tall-eucalypt-forests-no-longer-absorb-carbon-176979" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heatwaves</a> can negate the carbon sink strength of our ecosystems, and even lead to carbon emissions from plants </li> <li> <a href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/6285/2016/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">land clearing</a> and the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720369412?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" rel="noopener">draining of peatland</a> systems add to Australia’s and New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions </li> </ul> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454281/original/file-20220325-22-sef4kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454281/original/file-20220325-22-sef4kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454281/original/file-20220325-22-sef4kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454281/original/file-20220325-22-sef4kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454281/original/file-20220325-22-sef4kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454281/original/file-20220325-22-sef4kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454281/original/file-20220325-22-sef4kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454281/original/file-20220325-22-sef4kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Each hectare of Australia’s savanna’s sequesters, on average, 3.4 tonnes of carbon every year. Bryn Pinzgauer/Wikimedia, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CC BY-SA</a></figcaption></figure> Critical questions remain Plans in Australia and New Zealand to reach net zero emissions by 2050 strongly depend on the ongoing ability for ecosystems to sequester emissions from industry, agriculture, transport and the electricity sectors. While some management and technological innovations are underway to address this, such as in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agricultural sector</a>, we need long-term measurements of carbon cycling to truly understand the <a href="https://theconversation.com/forests-cant-handle-all-the-net-zero-emissions-plans-companies-and-countries-expect-nature-to-offset-too-much-carbon-170336" target="_blank" rel="noopener">limits of ecosystems</a> and their <a href="https://theconversation.com/existential-threat-to-our-survival-see-the-19-australian-ecosystems-already-collapsing-154077" target="_blank" rel="noopener">risk of collapse</a>. Indeed, we’re already in uncharted territory under climate change. Weather extremes from <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-heatwave-conditions-tasmanias-tall-eucalypt-forests-no-longer-absorb-carbon-176979" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heatwaves</a> to heavy rainfall are becoming more frequent and intense. And CO₂ levels are more than <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/documents/State-of-the-Climate-2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">50% higher</a> than they were 200 years ago. So while our ecosystems have remained a net sink over the <a href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/18/5639/2021/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last 20 years</a>, it’s worth asking: <ul> <li> will they continue to do the heavy-lifting required to keep both countries on track to meet their climate targets? </li> <li> how do we protect, restore and sustain the most vital, yet vulnerable, ecosystems, such as “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12176-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">coastal blue carbon</a>” (including seagrasses and mangroves)? These are critical to nature-based solutions to climate change </li> <li> how do we monitor and verify national carbon accounting schemes, such as Australia’s <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/About-the-Emissions-Reduction-Fund#:%7E:text=The%20Emissions%20Reduction%20Fund%20is,technologies%20to%20reduce%20their%20emissions." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>? </li> </ul> Critical questions remain about how well Australia’s and New Zealand’s ecosystems can continue storing CO₂.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179554/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/caitlin-moore-1186446" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Caitlin Moore</a>, Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The University of Western Australia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-campbell-1328524" target="_blank" rel="noopener">David Campbell</a>, Associate Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-waikato-781" target="_blank" rel="noopener">University of Waikato</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/helen-cleugh-155096" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Helen Cleugh</a>, Honorary Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jamie-cleverly-238170" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jamie Cleverly</a>, Snr research fellow in environmental sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/james-cook-university-1167" target="_blank" rel="noopener">James Cook University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jason-beringer-1327013" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jason Beringer</a>, Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The University of Western Australia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lindsay-hutley-157810" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lindsay Hutley</a>, Professor of Environmental Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-darwin-university-1066" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Charles Darwin University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-grant-1195593" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mark Grant</a>, Science Communication and Engagement Manager; Program Coordinator, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The University of Queensland</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-20-years-of-studying-how-ecosystems-absorb-carbon-heres-why-were-worried-about-a-tipping-point-of-collapse-179554" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original article</a>. Image: Getty Images

Domestic Travel

Reducing air travel by small amounts each year could level off the climate impact

Just before the pandemic, aircraft engines were burning <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/industry-statistics/">one billion litres</a> of fuel a day. But then the number of daily civil aviation flights fell from <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/industry-statistics/">110,000</a> to less than 50,000 during 2020, on average. With the easing of travel restrictions, air traffic is increasing back towards its pre-pandemic peak. Most world leaders and delegates will have flown to Glasgow to attend COP26 – the 26th annual UN climate change summit – in person. But as they haggle over emissions targets to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and not <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-what-would-the-world-be-like-at-3-c-of-warming-and-how-would-it-be-different-from-1-5-c-171030">3°C or more</a>, aviation is unlikely to be included in them, given the lack of low-carbon alternatives to long-haul flights. But it should be. <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac286e">In new research</a>, my colleagues and I calculated that if the aviation sector continues to grow on its present trajectory, its jet fuel consumption will have added 0.1˚C to global warming by 2050 – half of it to date, the other half in the next three decades. Aviation is responsible for 4% of the 1.2°C rise in the global mean temperature we have already experienced since the industrial revolution. Without action to reduce flights, the sector will account for 17% of the remaining 0.3°C left in the 1.5°C temperature target, and 6% of the 0.8°C left to stay within 2°C. Airlines effectively add more to global warming <a href="http://globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions">than most countries.</a> <h2>Warming footprints</h2> At the current rate, the world will have warmed by 2°C <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf">within three decades</a>. To quantify how different activities contribute to warming, scientists measure carbon emissions. This is because how much the Earth warms is proportional to cumulative carbon emissions in the atmosphere. This is a very good approximation in many cases, but it is inaccurate for emissions caused by aeroplanes travelling at altitudes of up to 12 kilometres. As well as CO₂, aircraft engines emit nitrogen oxides, water vapour, sulphur and soot, causing <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04068-0">contrail cirrus clouds</a> and other complicated chemical reactions in the atmosphere. The sum of these so-called non-CO₂ effects adds more warming on top of the CO₂ emissions. So the total warming footprint of aviation is between two and three times higher than a conventional carbon footprint. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430221/original/file-20211104-21-xa7pet.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="An aeroplane's trail viewed from between two tall buildings" /> Condensation trails produced by aircraft engines contribute to global warming. <a href="https://pixabay.com/photos/architecture-skyscraper-skyline-3984725/" class="source">MichaelGaida/Pixabay</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" class="license">CC BY</a> While a large share of a flight’s CO₂ emissions remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years, the non-CO₂ effects diminish over time, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834">vanishing within about ten years</a>. So any growth in aviation, measured in global jet fuel consumption, has an amplified impact as both CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects add up. But a decline in aviation can partly reverse some warming, as the non-CO₂ effects disappear over time until only the CO₂ effects remain. Think of the non-CO₂ effects like a bathtub – it fills up when the taps are turned further and further, despite a slow outflow down the plughole. But the same bathtub will eventually empty if the taps are gradually turned down. The non-CO₂ effects of flights on the atmosphere will slowly disappear if fewer and fewer flights are taken, so that aviation’s contribution to warming eventually levels off. In that situation, the increase from continued CO₂ emissions would balance the fall in non-CO₂ effects, and although aviation would still contribute to climate change, the total warming from both would remain constant over time. How much would aviation need to shrink to level off its influence on global warming? Our calculations show that flying does not need to stop immediately to prevent aviation’s contribution to global warming expanding. Flying has already caused 0.04°C of warming to date. But with a yearly decrease of 2.5% in jet fuel consumption, currently only achievable with cuts in air traffic, this warming will level off at a constant level over the coming decades. <h2>When do we really need to fly?</h2> COVID-19 had a huge impact on the aviation sector. Air traffic is still approximately 10-20% below pre-pandemic levels, but is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac286e">rebounding quickly</a>. Politicians should shift subsidies from flying to more sustainable modes of transport, such as train journeys. And there is much more that can be done. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430217/original/file-20211104-25-1v0sxdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="An aeroplane parked at an airport" /> Forced changes in flying habits due to the pandemic have led some to permanently cut back on flights. <a href="https://pixabay.com/photos/airplane-aircraft-airport-travel-4885803/" class="source">Dmncwndrlch/Pixabay</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" class="license">CC BY</a> Lockdowns and the shift to remote working made many people rethink the necessity of flying. People resolving to fly less can contribute considerably to reducing the number of unnecessary flights. Combining in-person and virtual attendance in hybrid meetings wherever possible is a great way to support that shift. Reducing the space that business classes take on aeroplanes is another way to cut the number of flights, as it allows more passengers to travel on one flight. Not allowing airport expansions could also have a big impact. The UK’s Climate Change Committee, an expert body which advises the UK government, has recommended <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Sector-summary-Aviation.pdf">not expanding airports</a> to align the sector with climate targets. Yet the expansion of Heathrow airport is currently <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51646562">planned to go ahead</a>. Sustainable aviation fuels, and hydrogen or electric planes, are being developed, but none of these technologies are currently available at the necessary scale. At the moment, there is little chance of the aviation industry meeting any climate targets if it aims for a return to its pre-pandemic rate of growth. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/milan-klower-879339">Milan Klöwer</a>, Postdoctoral Researcher in Weather and Climate Modelling, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-oxford-1260">University of Oxford</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-air-travel-by-small-amounts-each-year-could-level-off-the-climate-impact-171184">original article</a>. Image: Free-Photos/Pixabay

International Travel

Convenience, comfort, cost and carbon: what’s the best way to travel, save money and cut emissions?

As New Zealanders plan their summer holiday trips, it’s worth considering different travel options and their respective cost, both to the budget and the environment. I’ve <a href="https://www.massey.ac.nz/massey/fms/Research/Transport_article_Conversation_3.pdf">compared several travel modes (with all assumptions made found here)</a> — a small diesel car, electric car, bus, train or plane — for a door-to-door 300km return journey. The process has identified limitations for each mode, which may help policymakers better understand the challenges involved in developing a low-carbon transport system. New Zealand’s annual transport emissions have <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/media/Climate%20Change/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990-2018-vol-1.pdf">nearly doubled</a> since 1990 and account for more than a fifth of total greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from cars, utes and vans have continued to increase even though the <a href="https://www.motu.nz/our-research/environment-and-resources/emission-mitigation/shaping-new-zealands-low-emissions-future/a-timeline-of-the-nz-emissions-trading-scheme/">NZ Emissions Trading Scheme</a> has been in place for 14 years and has added a “carbon levy” of around 10-15 cents per litre to petrol and diesel. The Climate Change Commission has <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-aotearoa/">recommended</a> the government should: <ul> <li> reduce the reliance on cars (or light vehicles) and support people to walk, cycle and use public transport </li> <li> rapidly adopt electric vehicles </li> <li> and enable local government to play an important role in changing how people travel. </li> </ul> But is it realistic to expect governments to change how people travel? Providing information is perhaps the key. <h2>Transport comparisons</h2> A person’s choice of transport mode is based on a mixture of cost, comfort and convenience as well as speed and safety. But most New Zealanders choose their car out of habit rather than from any analytical reasoning. Carbon dioxide emissions are rarely a factor in their choice. Although more people now agree that climate change is a major issue, few have been willing or able to take steps to significantly reduce their transport-related carbon footprint. This analysis is based on my personal experiences travelling between my house on the outskirts of the city of Palmerston North to attend a meeting in the centre of Wellington. It relates to any other similar journey with a choice of transport modes, although the details will vary depending on the specific circumstances. I compared a 1500cc diesel car I owned for ten years with an electric car which has a 220km range and is mainly charged at home, using rooftop solar. The airport is 8km away from the house, the railway station 7km and the bus station 5km. I included “first and last mile” options when comparing total journey time, cost, carbon emissions, comfort and convenience. <iframe id="ph0I4" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ph0I4/8/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none;" frameborder="0"></iframe> <h2>Things to consider before a trip</h2> Travelling by car for one person is relatively costly but has good door-to-door convenience and can be quicker than the bus, train or plane, except during times of traffic congestion. Comfort is reasonable but the driver cannot read, work or relax as they can on a train. Car drivers usually consider the cost of fuel when planning a journey, but few consider the costs of depreciation, tyre wear, repairs and maintenance as included here. Should more than one person travel in the car, the costs and carbon emissions will be lower per passenger. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437335/original/file-20211213-17-446b2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="Woman taking picture from small plane" /> A short plane journey, if nearly full, can have lower emissions per passenger than one person going by road in a diesel car. Shutterstock/Peter Gudella Taking a short-haul flight over this distance is relatively costly and the journey is no quicker since there is considerable inconvenience getting to and from the airports. The carbon dioxide emissions per passenger can be lower than for a diesel car (with just the driver), assuming the plane has around 80% occupancy. For one person, taking a bus or train can be significantly cheaper than taking a car and also offers lower emissions. However, the longer overall journey time and the hassles getting to and from the stations are deterrents. Infrequent bus and train services, often at inconvenient times, can also be disincentives to choosing these modes. <h2>Going electric</h2> <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437334/original/file-20211213-25-4k5xtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" alt="Car park reserved for electric cars to recharge" /> Electric cars offer convenience and low emissions. Shutterstock/Ed Goodacre The electric car has low carbon emissions, especially if charged from a domestic solar system. Coupled with reasonable comfort and convenience and the lowest journey cost per person when carrying two or more passengers, this supports the government’s policy to encourage the deployment of EVs. Travelling by train is perhaps the best option overall for one person making this journey. The total cost is less than half that of taking a car. Emissions are around a third of the diesel car. Comfort is good, with the opportunity to work or relax. Making the whole journey more convenient will help encourage more people to travel by train and help reduce transport emissions. But this will require national and local governments to: <ul> <li> encourage Kiwirail to provide more frequent services </li> <li> electrify all lines </li> <li> provide cheap and efficient “first-and-last-mile” services to railway stations </li> <li> undertake a major education campaign to illustrate the full cost, carbon emissions and convenience benefits resulting from leaving the car at home.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165526/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> </li> </ul> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ralph-sims-204224">Ralph Sims</a>, Emeritus Professor, Energy and Climate Mitigation, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/massey-university-806">Massey University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/convenience-comfort-cost-and-carbon-whats-the-best-way-to-travel-save-money-and-cut-emissions-165526">original article</a>. Image: Shutterstock/Matej Kastelic

Travel Trouble

Australian forests will store less carbon as climate change worsens and severe fires become more common

Eucalypt forests are well known for bouncing back after fire, and the green shoots that emerge from eucalypts stems as they begin their first steps to recovery provide some of the most iconic images of the Australian bush. Resprouting allows trees to survive and quickly start photosynthesising again, which keeps carbon “alive” and stored in the tree. On the other hand, if a tree dies and slowly rots, <a href="https://theconversation.com/decaying-forest-wood-releases-a-whopping-10-9-billion-tonnes-of-carbon-each-year-this-will-increase-under-climate-change-164406">the carbon stored in the tree is released into the atmosphere</a> as a source of greenhouse gas emissions. But <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112721010100">our new research</a> finds more frequent, severe bushfires and a hotter, drier climate may limit eucalypt forests’ ability to resprout and reliably lock up carbon. This could seriously undermine our efforts to mitigate climate change. Our findings paint a cautionary tale of a little known challenge posed by climate change, and gives us yet another reason to urgently and drastically cut global emissions. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435821/original/file-20211206-25-9ok01m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /> Eucalypt forest recovery up to four years after severe bushfire north of Heyfield. T Fairman <h2>We need forests to fight climate change</h2> At the international climate summit in Glasgow last month, more than 100 nations pledged to end and reverse deforestation. This put a much-needed spotlight on the importance of the world’s forests in <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/what-cop26-means-forests-climate">storing carbon to mitigate climate change</a>. Victoria’s national parks alone store almost <a href="https://www.delwp.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0023/416408/8-Carbon-factsheet-FINAL.pdf">1 billion tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide equivalent. For perspective, that’s roughly a decade’s worth of Victoria’s net CO₂ emissions in 2019 (<a href="https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/victorias-greenhouse-gas-emissions">91.3 million tonnes</a>). Australia’s forests have forged a tight relationship with bushfire. But climate change is already changing – and will continue to change – <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">the size, severity and frequency of bushfires</a>. In Victoria, for example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.13292">over 250,000 hectares have been burned</a> by at least two severe fires in just 20 years. This unprecendented frequency has led to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ash-to-ashes-what-could-the-2013-fires-mean-for-the-future-of-our-forests-12346">decline</a> of <a href="https://www.3cr.org.au/lostinscience/episode-202110140830/reseeding-victorian-forests-after-bushfire-and-nobel-prizes">fire sensitive forests</a>, such as the iconic alpine ash. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435826/original/file-20211206-15-152s50j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /> Extensive wildfires that have burned in Victoria between 2000 and 2020 have overlapped, resulting in large areas of forest being burned by multiple severe fires in that period. Geary et al, 2021 While resprouting eucalypts can be <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1365-2745.13227">resilient to periodic fires</a>, we know surprisingly little about how they’ll <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-testing-the-resilience-of-native-plants-to-fire-from-ash-forests-to-gymea-lilies-167367">respond to</a> increasingly common severe fires, particularly when combined with factors like drought. Early evidence shows <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718311496">resprouting can fail when fire is too frequent</a>, as seen in <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/recurring-fires-are-threatening-the-iconic-snow-gum">snow gum forests</a> in the Victorian alps. Understanding why is an <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pce.14176">area of active research</a>, but reasons could include damaged resprouting buds (as their protective bark is thinned by successive fires), or the depletion of the trees’ energy reserves. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436259/original/file-20211208-27-k7kmvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /> Snow gum forest killed and burned by three successive severe fires in ten years in the Alpine National Park. T Fairman <h2>Forests burned by two fires stored half the carbon</h2> If resprouting after fire begins to fail, what might this mean for carbon stores in widespread fire-tolerant eucalypt forests? <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112721010100">In our new paper</a>, we tackled this question by measuring carbon stored in Victoria’s dry eucalypt forests. We targeted areas that had been burned once or twice by severe bushfire within just six years. In these places, severe fires usually occur decades apart. In general, we found climate change impacts resprouting forests on two fronts: <ol> <li> as conditions get warmer and drier, these forests will store less carbon due to reduced growth </li> <li> as severe fires become more frequent, forests will store less carbon, with more trees dying and becoming dead wood. </li> </ol> <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435823/original/file-20211206-15-qhxm3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /> Our study forest type in West Gippsland, and the effects of one and two severe fires within six years. In the frequently burned site, nearly all trees had their epicormic buds killed and all resprouting occurred from the base of the trees. T Fairman First, we found carbon stores were lower in the drier and hotter parts of the landscape than the cooler and wetter parts. This makes sense - as any gardener knows, plants grow much better where water is plentiful and it’s not too hot. When frequent fire was added to the mix, forest carbon storage reduced even further. At warmer and drier sites, a forest burned by two severe fires had about half as much carbon as a forest burned by a single severe fire. More trees were killed with more frequent fire, which means what was once “living carbon” becomes “dead carbon” - which will rot and be a source of emissions. In fact, after two fires, less than half of the forest carbon was stored in living trees. The carbon stored in large living trees is an important stock and is usually considered stable, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.2383">given larger trees are generally more resilient to disturbance</a>. But we found their carbon stocks, too, significantly declined with more frequent fire. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436256/original/file-20211208-27-1jcp4sn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /> Victoria’s high country, recovering from multiple fires in the last 20 years. T Fairman <h2>What do we do about it?</h2> Given how widespread this forest type is in southern Australia, we need a better understanding of how it responds to frequent fires to accurately account for changes in their carbon stocks. We also must begin exploring new ways to manage our forests. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/4/3/61">Reinstating Indigenous fire management</a>, including traditional burning practices, and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00049158.2021.1894383">active forest management</a> may mitigate some of the impacts we’ve detected. We could also learn from and adapt <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/fee.2218">management approaches</a> in the dry forests of North America, where the new concept of “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/jof/article/119/5/520/6279705">pyro-silviculture</a>” is being explored. Pyro-silviculture can include <a href="https://theconversation.com/forest-thinning-is-controversial-but-it-shouldnt-be-ruled-out-for-managing-bushfires-130124">targeted thinning</a> to reduce the density of trees in forests, which can lower their susceptibility to drought, and encourage the growth of large trees. It can also involve controlled burns to reduce the severity of future fires. With the next, inevitable fire season on Australia’s horizon, such approaches are essential tools in our management kit, ensuring we can build better resilience in forest ecosystems and stabilise these crucial stocks of carbon.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173233/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-fairman-13940">Tom Fairman</a>, Future Fire Risk Analyst, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/craig-nitschke-1111728">Craig Nitschke</a>, Associate Professor - Forest and Landscape Dynamics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lauren-bennett-131892">Lauren Bennett</a>, Associate Professor - Ecosystem Sciences and Forest Carbon, The University of Melbourne This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-forests-will-store-less-carbon-as-climate-change-worsens-and-severe-fires-become-more-common-173233">original article</a>. Image: T Fairman

Travel Trouble

Electric cars are better for the environment

<div> <div class="copy"> A global analysis has verified that electric cars and heat pumps generate less greenhouse gas over their life cycle than their archaic petrol and fossil boiler counterparts, which together account for a quarter of the world’s emissions. Considering several different climate policy scenarios over the next three decades, European researchers <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7" target="_blank" aria-label=" (opens in a new tab)">report</a> in the journal Nature that electric vehicles and heaters are the better options in all cases, dispelling claims they <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/25/are-electric-vehicles-really-so-climate-friendly" target="_blank" aria-label=" (opens in a new tab)">aren’t any greener</a>. “Fears that electric cars could actually increase carbon emissions are unfounded in almost all parts of the world,” says lead author Florian Knobloch, from Radboud University in The Netherlands. “Electric cars and heat pumps lead to lower carbon emissions overall, even if electricity generation still involves substantial amounts of fossil fuel.” The researchers simulated 59 regions, including the US, China and most of Europe, which together account for 95% of the global demand for heating and transport. In 53 of these, emissions from electric cars were found to already be lower than fossil fuel alternatives. The few exceptions included places like Poland, which still rely mostly on coal to generate electricity. “However,” says Knobloch, “with energy production decarbonising worldwide, the last few debatable cases will soon disappear.” Countries did vary considerably according to the amount of electricity generated from alternative and renewable sources. In Sweden and France, for instance, average lifetime carbon dioxide emissions from electric cars are 70% lower than petrol cars, while in the UK they are 30% lower. The researchers estimate that by 2050 half of the cars on the road could be electric, which would drop global emissions by up to 1.5 gigatonnes per year – equating to those currently generated by the whole of Russia. For each of the regions in the analysis, Knobloch and colleagues conducted a life-cycle assessment of emissions generated from cars and heating systems, including the production chain and waste processing. Building on previous research, which has only considered the present situation, they also accounted for the vast range of cars and heating systems available. The comprehensive analysis simulated three future scenarios. The first two involve continuing with current climate policies or enacting feasible policies in line with the two-degree target set by the Paris Agreement. The third, a worst-case scenario that the authors say is unlikely, considers what would happen if ambitious targets are implemented for electric cars and heating while overall emissions continue on their current trajectory. The empirical model includes future consumer technology choices, based on detailed consumer market databases, and the resulting emissions from power generation, transport and household heating using historical observations. “We combined the resulting scenario projections with bottom-up estimates of life-cycle emissions from producing different technologies and their fuels,” Knobloch explains. At the study’s inception in 2015, electric cars and heaters both emitted a third less harmful gases than their air-polluting alternatives. Looking ahead, all three tested scenarios looked positive. Staying on current trajectories would lead to 10% lower emissions globally on average by 2030 and 16% by 2050. If Paris Agreement targets are met, that drops to 44% and 74% lower emissions, respectively. This also holds true for low-efficiency electric vehicles and heat pumps, which performed better than high efficiency petrol cars and fossil boilers, leaving no doubt about the best way forward. “Taking into account emissions from manufacturing and ongoing energy use, it’s clear that we should encourage the switch to electric cars and household heat pumps without any regrets,” says Knobloch. “Even in our worst-case scenario, there would be a reduction in emissions in almost all cases. This insight should be very useful for policy-makers.” Image credits: Shutterstock </div> <div id="contributors"> This article was originally published on <a rel="noopener" href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/yes-electric-cars-are-better-for-the-environment/" target="_blank">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Natalie Parletta. </div> </div>

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Australian forests will store less carbon as climate change worsens and severe fires become more common

Electric cars are better for the environment