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Floods, cyclones, thunderstorms: is climate change to blame for New Zealand’s summer of extreme weather?

The final months of New Zealand’s summer carried a massive sting, bringing “unprecedented” rainfalls several times over, from widespread flooding in Auckland at the end of January to ex-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle dumping record rains and causing devastating floods across the east coast of the North Island. After all that, New Zealand experienced spells of thunderstorms, bringing repeat floods to parts of Auckland and then Gisborne. The obvious question is what role climate change plays in these record-breaking rainfalls. Some answers come from the international <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/">World Weather Attribution</a> team, which today released a <a href="https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/102624/10/Scientific%20report%20New%20Zealand%20Floods.pdf">rapid assessment</a> which shows very heavy rain, like that associated with Cyclone Gabrielle, has become about four times more common in the region and extreme downpours now drop 30% more rain. The team analysed weather data from several stations, which show the observed increase in heavy rain. It then used computer models to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2℃ of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past. The small size of the analysed region meant the team could not quantify the extent to which human-caused warming is responsible for the observed increase in heavy rain in this part of New Zealand, but concluded it was the likely cause. <h2>More energy in the atmosphere and ocean</h2> Many factors add to the strength of a storm and the intensity of rainfall, especially for short bursts. A crucial factor is always the amount of energy available. Climate change is increasing that amount of energy in two main ways. First, everything is getting warmer. Rising sea surface temperatures provide <a href="https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/reviews/ScienceBrief_Review_CYCLONES_Mar2021.pdf">extra fuel for the development of tropical cyclones</a> because they grow by heating from below. Warmer seas mean potentially faster development of tropical cyclones, and stronger, more vigorous storms overall. Sea temperatures must be at least 26.5℃ to support the build-up of a tropical cyclone. So, as the oceans warm, these storms can reach farther from the equator. Second, warmer air can hold more water vapour. Every degree of warming increases the maximum amount of water vapour by around 7%. That extra water vapour tends to fall out as extra rain, but it also provides extra energy to a storm. <h2>Driving waves further inland</h2> The energy it takes to evaporate the water from the ocean surface and turn it into vapour is released again when the vapour condenses back into liquid water. A moister airmass heats the atmosphere more when clouds and rain form, making the air more buoyant and able to rise up more. This creates deeper, more vigorous clouds with stronger updrafts, and again more rain. Stronger updrafts in a storm mean more air will have to be drawn into the storm near the Earth’s surface, ensuring more “convergence” of air and moisture (water vapour). That’s why, even though a degree of warming translates to 7% more water vapour in the air, we can get 20% increases, or larger, in extreme rainfalls. All of this extra energy can contribute to making the storm stronger overall, with stronger winds and lower air pressures in its centre. This seems to have happened with Cyclone Gabrielle. Record low pressures were recorded at a few North Island locations as the storm passed. The low pressures act like a vacuum cleaner, sucking the sea surface up above normal sea level. The strong winds can then drive waves much further inland. Add in a bit of sea-level rise, and coastal inundation can get a lot worse a lot quicker. As the climate continues to change, storm intensity is likely to increase on average, as sea levels continue to rise. Those effects together are bound to lead to more dramatic coastal erosion and inundation. <h2>Thunderstorms riding warming seas</h2> These processes work for thunderstorms as well. A thunder cloud often starts as a buoyant mass of air over a warm surface. As the air rises (or convects), it cools and forces water vapour to condense back to liquid water, releasing heat and increasing the buoyancy and speed of the rising air. Again, that allows more moist air to be drawn into the cloud, and that convergence of moist air can increase rainfall amounts well above the 7% per degree of warming, for short bursts of very intense convection. The more intense the convection, the stronger the convergence of moisture and the heavier the resulting rainfall. Tropical cyclones have rings of thunderstorms around their eye during the time when they are truly tropical storms. As they transition out of the tropics into our neighbourhood, they change their structure but retain a lot of the moisture and buoyancy of the air. An ex-tropical cyclone like Gabrielle, moving over very warm water, can pack a devastating punch. Why has New Zealand had so much of this very heavy rain during the weeks from late January? Partly it’s the very warm ocean waters around Aotearoa (up to marine heatwave conditions) and farther north into the Coral Sea. That itself is partly related to the ongoing La Niña event in the tropical Pacific, which tends to pile up warm water (and tropical cyclones) in the west. But it is also related to ongoing global warming. As sea temperatures increase, it becomes easier to reach heatwave conditions. Warmer seas load the atmosphere with water vapour. Partly, too, the air over the North Island has been unusually “unstable” lately, very warm near ground level but cooler than normal higher up. That makes the buoyance in thunderstorms work even better and more strongly, encouraging very heavy rainfall. These conditions seem to have eased now, but severe thunderstorms continue to develop. As we move from summer into autumn, as the warmest seas move eastwards away from us and as La Niña fades in the tropics, the chances of a repeat event are diminishing. For now at least. But if we continue to warm the climate with more greenhouse gas emissions, we will continue to load the dice towards more very heavy rain over Aotearoa. Let us hope those regions and communities so badly affected by recent events have a chance to dry out, rebuild and recover before the next extreme weather. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-cyclones-thunderstorms-is-climate-change-to-blame-for-new-zealands-summer-of-extreme-weather-201161" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Images: Getty

Travel Trouble

What Australia learned from recent devastating floods – and how New Zealand can apply those lessons now

Australia and New Zealand have both faced a series of devastating floods triggered by climate change and the return of the <a href="https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/historic-3rd-la-nina-is-back-but-it-barely-left-us-in-the-first-place">La Niña weather pattern</a>. So it makes sense that Australia has now <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-17/australia-sends-disaster-crew-to-nz-death-toll-rises/101989822">sent disaster crews</a> to help with the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle. With <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2343938-eastern-australia-is-battling-fifth-major-wave-of-floods-in-19-months/">five serious floods</a> in the space of 19 months in 2021-2022, Australia’s experiences – and how people responded – offer New Zealand a guide for recovering and rebuilding after an extreme weather event. The flooding events in both countries share two key common elements. First, the floods broke previous records and were the largest in recent history. Second, there were also repeat flood events. In Auckland, there were <a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/residents-evacuated-homes-roads-flooded-again">two massive floods within five days</a>, while Cyclone Gabrielle became the Coromandel’s <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/484167/cyclone-gabrielle-thames-coromandel-already-facing-fifth-severe-weather-event-of-year">fifth severe weather event</a> for 2023 and devastated other parts of the North Island. The other common factor is urbanisation. <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/auckland-population-may-hit-2-million-in-early-2030s">Auckland’s population has been growing</a>, resulting in the increasing development of the built environment. Intensifying urban development places pressure on existing drainage systems – parts of which are no longer fit for purpose. Extensive built-up and paved areas with hard, impermeable surfaces can also cause rapid run-off during heavy rain, with the water unable to be absorbed into the ground as it would be in <a href="https://theconversation.com/auckland-floods-even-stormwater-reform-wont-be-enough-we-need-a-sponge-city-to-avoid-future-disasters-198736">soft, vegetated areas</a>. <h2>Working with the community</h2> Our <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7En6dA-N3MA">recent research</a> in the Hunter Valley in Australia – one of the areas affected by those five successive floods – identified similar factors contributing to the flooding events, including a <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/Hunter%20REDS.pdf">rapidly growing regional population</a>. Two of our research sites – the Cessnock and Singleton local government areas – had growing urban centres that reflected a similar development trajectory to Auckland, albeit in a smaller scale. Our research in the Hunter Valley established the importance of identifying existing community resilience and gaps. We also observed the need to involve the community at all levels. This included having early warning systems and evacuation protocols in place to improve community access to information and warnings. The State Emergency Services (SES) is the main agency in New South Wales responsible for flood response and management. Supported by community volunteers, the SES has a clear focus at the local level. This community focus is evident with its “door-knocking kit”, which is based on a community-level vulnerability assessment. The SES has a list of those in the community who are most at risk, such as the elderly and people with disabilities. When a flood risk becomes evident, SES volunteers go knocking on doors to check their preparedness and provide evacuation support. The equivalent of SES in New Zealand, Auckland Emergency Management, could learn from this community-based approach and include it within its <a href="https://getready.govt.nz/en/involved/community/">Community Group Support</a> initiative, so that future disaster responses can be more closely tailored to the community. In the recent floods in Auckland, communication was an issue. Relaying directives and information through multiple institutional layers <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/some-incorrect-decisions-auckland-mayor-under-fire-over-deadly-floods-20230130-p5cggt.html">led to confusion</a>, which could have been avoided through a closer community-based approach. <h2>Building a volunteer army</h2> Another key factor in Australia is the large cadre of SES volunteers – around <a href="https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/about-us/">9,000 in New South Wales</a>, a state with a population of just over eight million. This is a significant form of social capital, without which the current approach to flood response and management would not be possible. While there are initiatives in New Zealand to <a href="https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/get-ready/volunteering/">attract and engage volunteers</a>, more needs to be done. Civil defence needs to conduct a structural review of the existing volunteer organisations that work in the disaster and emergency response field to identify ways to improve the recruitment and retention. We also found evidence of volunteer “burn-out”, meaning there’s a need to support volunteers emotionally and financially during extended periods of disaster response and recovery. While there is a large number of SES volunteers in Australia, more are needed as climate change drives more frequent, extensive and intense disasters. Given the similar nature of repeat climate-related disaster events in New Zealand, provisions for a large cadre of well-supported and well-trained volunteers is necessary. A review of existing volunteer agencies and community organisations should be undertaken to identify ways they can be harmonised to avoid competing pressures for resources. As well, there’s a need to nurture collaboration between agencies to help with sharing skills, training, data and resource management. <h2>The need for resilience</h2> Perhaps the key lesson for New Zealand, and also Australia, is the need to think beyond emergency management to building long-term resilience within agencies and communities. As climate-related disasters become more common, we need to think about how our cities grow and how we can incorporate flood resilience by retaining green areas and vegetation, improved drainage and transportation links. But both countries also need to focus on being ready for a disaster, instead of managing it after it happens. In doing so, the pressures of managing the disaster when it arrives would be less – and so would the long-term impacts on people and the economy. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-australia-learned-from-recent-devastating-floods-and-how-new-zealand-can-apply-those-lessons-now-200078" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Travel Trouble

Historic flooding submerges third of Pakistan

A third of Pakistan is underwater as a result of historic flooding, the country’s climate minister has confirmed. Flash flooding has seen roads, homes and crops get washed away across Pakistan, which Sherry Rehman has called a “crisis of unimaginable proportions”. “It’s all one big ocean, there’s no dry land to pump the water out,” Ms Rehman said. According to officials, at least 1136 people have died since the start of the monsoon season in June, with the summer rain being the heaviest recorded in a decade. The Pakistani government has declared a state of emergency and is blaming climate change for the record-breaking downpour. “Literally, one-third of Pakistan is underwater right now, which has exceeded every boundary, every norm we’ve seen in the past,” Ms Rehman told the AFP news agency. “We’ve never seen anything like this.” Of those who have died, officials said on Monday that 75 people were killed in the previous 24 hours alone and that they expect the death toll to continue rising. Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, told the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62712301" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BBC</a> that a third of those who have died are believed to be children. “We are still coming to grips with the extent of the damage,” he said. It’s estimated that 33 million - or one in seven - Pakistanis have been affected by the floods, with entire villages in the country’s northern Swat Valley being cut off after bridges and roads were swept away. Thousands of people in the area have been ordered to evacuate, but authorities are still struggling to reach residents even with the help of helicopters. “Village after village has been wiped out. Millions of houses have been destroyed,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Sunday after flying over the area. For those who have escaped to safer areas, they have been crowded into makeshift camps across the country. Fazal Malik, a flood victim currently staying in a school that was being used to house 2500 evacuees in the north-western Kyber Pakhtunkhwa province, said the living conditions were “miserable”. “Our self-respect is at stake,” Malik said. This year’s flooding has been compared to the floods that devastated Pakistan in 2010, which were the deadliest in the country’s history and killed more than 2000 people. With growing concerns about the cost of rebuilding following the disaster, Pakistan’s government has appealed for financial assistance from aid agencies, friendly countries and international donors. "A very early, preliminary estimate is that it is big, it is higher than $10 billion ($NZD 16.18 billion)," Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal told Reuters. Mr Iqbal added that almost half of the country’s cotton crops had been washed away, while fields growing vegetables, fruit and rice had been significantly damaged. “Our crop spanned over 5,000 acres on which the best quality rice what sown and is eaten by you and us,” 70-year-old rice farmer Khalil Ahmed, whose fields in the south-eastern city of Sukkur were devastated by the floods, told the AFP. “All that is finished.” Image: Getty Images

International Travel

What happened in the Mediterranean during a megaflood

Research coming out of the Australian National University (ANU) delves deeper into what happened in the Mediterranean during a megaflood five million years ago. The event, called the Zanclean megaflood, was the greatest flooding event known to science. It turned the Mediterranean basin from a barren, salty brine pool into the bustling marine ecosystem we know today. The ANU study sheds light on how this transformation took place. Published in Nature Geoscience, the research indicates that it took 26,000 years for the salt accumulated in the eastern Mediterranean to wash out into the Atlantic Ocean, making the sea suitable for abundant marine life. Being from Cyprus myself, I grew up with the knowledge that you can find seashells on the island’s largest mountain range, the Troodos Mountains. The Mediterranean has had a tumultuous history filled with tectonic activity, sinking and rising islands, and floods. Lead author and ANU PhD researcher in palaeoenvironments, Udara Amarathunga, says the Zanclean flood was one of the most abrupt global environmental shift since the mass extinction which saw the disappearance of the non-avian dinosaurs. Amarathunga says it was “the rebirth of the Mediterranean.” “Our study fills a gap in the story. “The megaflood triggered the end of the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) when the Mediterranean basin partially dried up as the Atlantic-Mediterranean gateway was closed, leaving behind huge bodies of salt and killing most life forms.” Amarathunga told Cosmos that the MSC began six million years ago as the European and African continental plates pushed against each other, cutting the Mediterranean off from the Atlantic at the point where Gibraltar lies today. This “gate,” says Amarathunga “was not fully closed and allowed a small amount of inflow to the Mediterranean. But it closed entirely by 5.6 million years, and this is the peak of the Salinity Crisis.” Though the scientists are not sure of the exact extent of the Mediterranean’s drying, Amarathunga says they believe its levels reduced by 1-2 kilometres, creating an eastern and western basin separated by what is now Sicily. But the Mediterranean is no longer an inhospitable brine, so what changed? Slowly, but surely, Amarathunga explains, erosion saw small amounts of water trickling from the Atlantic back into the Mediterranean. The megaflood hypothesis was first elaborated in 2009 by Spanish scientist Daniel Garcia-Castellanos who suggested that, after this initial slow flow, the “dam wall” would have broken and seen a massive volume of water enter the Mediterranean Sea. The energy produced by the mass movement of water in a single day at the peak of the flood would have been equivalent to 500 times the energy produced by Niagara Falls in a whole year. It’s estimated that the Mediterranean Sea would have risen more than 10 metres per day at the peak of the flood. “This is termed the most abrupt flood in recorded history,” says Amarathunga. “And, as the Mediterranean was filled, the global sea level was lowered by about nine metres!” Immediately after the flooding surface in the eastern Mediterranean, there is an “organic-rich layer” which shows low oxygen levels in the water, since oxygen leads to oxidation of this organic matter. This layer doesn’t appear in the western basin. So, these anoxic dead zones in the eastern Mediterranean indicates that the eastern basin was anoxic after the flood. The megaflood and the organic-rich layer deposition happened in stages. The western basin of the Mediterranean fills up first. Then, once the land barrier to the eastern basin is broken, there is a waterfall into the east. But this waterfall, Amarathunga’s work shows, would have carried with it large amounts of salt into the eastern basin. “Our interpretation is that, towards the end of the flood, both basins are mixed. But because of the floodwater’s energy, all the salt is transferred from this waterfall to the eastern basin,” Amarathunga says. “Now this salt needs to transfer that salt to the Atlantic. We used another model to estimate the time it will take to remove the salt that to the Atlantic.” “Our work indicates it took another 26,000 years to remove all the excess salt to the Atlantic Ocean and return the Mediterranean to a normal marine basin.” This lengthy transition period was unknown to scientists until now. The megaflood hypothesis is subject to some controversy, however. Some scientists suggest that the Mediterranean never dried up in large scale. This new ANU study provides evidence which strengthens the megaflood hypothesis. Amarathunga said such rapid and large transformation are rare, making the Zanclean flood a unique example of how quickly entire ecosystems can shift. But there is more work to be done to fully understand the impact of the megaflood. “It’s unclear how such a transformation would have changed the regional climate,” Amarathunga says. “Also, further studies could tell us more about how organisms evolved as the Mediterranean was reborn.” To do this, Amarathunga says that they will look for “biomarkers” in the sediment laid down millions of years ago. “Biomarkers are a very good way of telling stories like this. The techniques we will use for future research will be geochemical measurements. That includes X-ray fluorescence and X-ray diffraction. We will look at biomarkers and will also quantify the amount of organic matter in the sediment.” Amarathunga says that there are 11 sites across the Mediterranean with sedimentary records from the period – seven in the western basin and four in the east. While his research is based on one of these sites in the east, he says “we cannot just look at one site and tell a story about the whole basin.” This article originally appeared on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/mediterranean-megaflood-anu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Evrim Yazgin. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

‘Patently ridiculous’: State government failures have exacerbated Sydney’s flood disaster

For the fourth time in 18 months, floodwaters have inundated homes and businesses in Western Sydney’s Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley. Recent torrential rain is obviously the immediate cause. But poor decisions by successive New South Wales governments have exacerbated the damage. The town of Windsor, in the Hawkesbury region, has suffered a particularly high toll, with dramatic flood heights of 9.3 metres in February 2020, 12.9m in March 2021 and 13.7m in March this year. As I write, flood heights at Windsor have reached nearly 14m. This is still considerably lower than the monster flood of 1867, which reached almost 20m. It’s clear that standard flood risk reduction measures, such as raising building floor levels, are not safe enough in this valley. We’ve known about the risk of floods to the region for a long time. Yet successive state governments have failed to properly mitigate its impact. Indeed, recent urban development policies by the current NSW government will multiply the risk. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> BBC weather putting Sydney’s downpour into context. More rain there in 4 days than London gets in a year. <a href="https://t.co/FDkBCYGlK7">pic.twitter.com/FDkBCYGlK7</a> — Brett Mcleod (@Brett_McLeod) <a href="https://twitter.com/Brett_McLeod/status/1544071890431623169?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 4, 2022</a></blockquote> We knew this was coming A 22,000 square kilometre catchment covering the Blue Mountains and Western Sydney drains into the Hawkesbury-Nepean river system. The system faces an <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydneys-disastrous-flood-wasnt-unprecedented-were-about-to-enter-a-50-year-period-of-frequent-major-floods-158427" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extreme flood risk</a> because gorges restrict the river’s seaward flow, often causing water to rapidly fill up the valley after heavy rain. Governments have known about the flood risks in the valley for more than two centuries. Traditional Owners have known about them for millennia. In 1817, Governor Macquarie lamented: <blockquote> it is impossible not to feel extremely displeased and Indignant at [colonists] Infatuated Obstinacy in persisting to Continue to reside with their Families, Flocks, Herds, and Grain on those Spots Subject to the Floods, and from whence they have often had their prosperity swept away. </blockquote> Macquarie’s was the first in a long line of governments to do nothing effective to reduce the risk. The latest in this undistinguished chain is the NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts. In March, Roberts <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-planning-minister-scraps-order-to-consider-flood-fire-risks-before-building-20220321-p5a6kc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly revoked</a> his predecessor’s directive to better consider flood and other climate risks in planning decisions, to instead favour housing development. Roberts’ predecessor, Rob Stokes, had required that the Department of Planning, local governments and developers consult Traditional Owners, manage risks from climate change, and make information public on the risks of natural disasters. This could have helped limit development on floodplains. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Michael Greenway knows that as soon as he sees floodwater, it’s time to get the three boxes of family photos and move to higher ground. He’s lived in his Richards home for years and has experienced six floods - three of which have been this year <a href="https://t.co/t8Tgckc5lx">https://t.co/t8Tgckc5lx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NSWFloods?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NSWFloods</a> <a href="https://t.co/ErN6sf6hBn">pic.twitter.com/ErN6sf6hBn</a> — Laura Chung (@Laura_R_Chung) <a href="https://twitter.com/Laura_R_Chung/status/1543890156675276800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 4, 2022</a></blockquote> Why are we still building there? The Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley is currently home to 134,000 people, a population <a href="https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/expert-advice/hawkesbury-nepean-flood-risk-management-strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">projected to</a> double by 2050. The potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-stop-risky-developments-in-floodplains-we-have-to-tackle-the-profit-motive-and-our-false-sense-of-security-184062?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic returns</a> from property development are a key driver of the <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/26393302" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lack of effective action</a> to reduce flood risk. In the valley, for example, billionaire Kerry Stokes’ company Seven Group is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-raising-the-warragamba-dam-wall-could-be-a-win-for-billionaire-kerry-stokes-20220222-p59yke.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly a part owner</a> of almost 2,000 hectares at Penrith Lakes by the Nepean River, where a 5,000-home development has been mooted. Planning in Australia often uses the 1-in-100-year flood return interval as a safety standard. <a href="https://nccarf.edu.au/living-floods-key-lessons-australia-and-abroad/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This is not appropriate</a>. Flood risk in the valley is increasing with climate change, and development in the catchment increases the speed of runoff from paved surfaces. The historical 1-in-100 year safety standard is particularly inappropriate in the valley, because of the extreme risk of rising water cutting off low-lying roads and completely submerging residents cut-off in extreme floods. What’s more, a “medium” climate change scenario will see a <a href="https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/expert-advice/hawkesbury-nepean-flood-risk-management-strategy/resources/publications-and-resources/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">14.6% increase</a> in rainfall by 2090 west of Sydney. This is projected to increase the 1-in-100 year flood height at Windsor from 17.3m to 18.4m. The NSW government should impose a much higher standard of flood safety before approving new residential development. In my view, it would be prudent to only allow development that could withstand the 20m height of the 1867 flood. No dam can control the biggest floods The NSW government’s primary proposal to reduce flood risk is to <a href="https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/expert-advice/hawkesbury-nepean-flood-risk-management-strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raise Warragamba Dam</a> by 14m. There are many reasons this <a href="https://www.giveadam.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal should be questioned</a>. They include the potential inundation not just of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/traditional-owners-launch-federal-bid-to-stop-raising-of-warragamba-dam-wall-20210128-p56xkt.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cultural sites</a> of the Gundungarra nation, but threatened species populations, and part of the Blue Mountains World Heritage Area. The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/media/2855/infrastructure-nsw-resilient-valley-resilient-communities-2017-jan.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cost-benefit analysis</a> used to justify the proposal <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-submission-details.aspx?pk=65507" target="_blank" rel="noopener">did not count</a> these costs, nor the benefits of alternative measures such as upgrading escape roads. Perversely, flood control dams and levee banks often result in higher flood risks. That’s because none of these structures stop the biggest floods, and they provide an illusion of safety that justifies more risky floodplain development. The current NSW transport minister <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/emergency-minister-says-raising-dam-wall-could-lead-to-more-development-on-floodplain-20210329-p57evo.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suggested such development</a> in the valley last year. Similar development occurred with the construction of the Wivenhoe Dam in 1984, which hasn’t prevented extensive flooding in <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/26393302" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brisbane</a> in 2011 and 2022. These are among the reasons the NSW Parliament Select Committee on the Proposal to Raise the Warragamba Dam Wall <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/listofcommittees/Pages/committee-details.aspx?pk=262#tab-reportsandgovernmentresponses" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recommended</a> last October that the state government: <blockquote> not proceed with the Warragamba Dam wall raising project [and] pursue alternative floodplain management strategies instead. </blockquote> What the government should do instead The NSW government now has an opportunity to overcome two centuries of failed governance. It could take substantial measures to keep homes off the floodplain and out of harm’s way. We need major <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-submission-details.aspx?pk=65507" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new measures</a> including: <ul> <li>preventing new development</li> <li>relocating flood prone residents</li> <li>building better evacuation roads</li> <li>lowering the water storage level behind Warragamba Dam.</li> </ul> The NSW government should help residents to relocate from the most flood-prone places and restore floodplains. This has been undertaken for many Australian towns and cities, such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grantham</a>, Brisbane, and <a href="https://nccarf.edu.au/living-floods-key-lessons-australia-and-abroad" target="_blank" rel="noopener">along major rivers worldwide</a>. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/5/4/1580/htm#B10-water-05-01580" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Relocating residents isn’t easy</a>, and any current Australian buyback and relocation programs are voluntary. I think it’s in the public interest to go further and, for example, compulsorily acquire or relocate those with destroyed homes, rather than allowing them to rebuild in harm’s way. This approach offers certainty for flood-hit people and lowers community impacts in the longer term. It is patently ridiculous to rebuild on sites that have been flooded multiple times in two years. In the case of the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, there are at least <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-government-insurers-stop-housing-in-floodrisk-zones/news-story/cba71269eff2b0ea00d93445ff0e9f73" target="_blank" rel="noopener">5,000 homes</a> below the 1-in-100-year flood return interval. This includes roughly <a href="https://www.hawkesburygazette.com.au/story/7657492/near-1000-flood-related-home-insurance-claims-already-in-hawkesbury/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1,000 homes flooded</a> in March. The NSW government says a buyback program would be <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/farcical-minister-shoots-down-flood-relocation-says-residents-know-the-risks-20220308-p5a2qg.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">too expensive</a>. Yet, the cost would be comparable to the roughly $2 billion needed to raise Warragamba Dam, or the government’s $5 billion WestInvest fund. An alternative measure to raising the dam is to lower the water storage level in Warragamba Dam by 12m. This would reduce the amount of drinking water stored to supply Sydney, and would provide some flood control space. The city’s water supply would then need to rely more on the existing desalination plant, a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116001817" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strategy assessed as cost effective</a> and with the added benefit of bolstering drought resilience. The flood damage seen in NSW this week was entirely predictable. Measures that could significantly lower flood risk are expensive and politically hard. But as flood risks worsen with climate change, they’re well worth it.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186304/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jamie-pittock-7562" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jamie Pittock</a>, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Australian National University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/patently-ridiculous-state-government-failures-have-exacerbated-sydneys-flood-disaster-186304" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original article</a>.

Legal

Teenager donates newly-bought car to flood victim

A generous teenager has helped change the life of one of NSW's flood victims by giving him a car. Harry Ledger, a 17-year-old from Kiama, had recently travelled to the flood-affected area of Lismore to help in the mammoth clean up effort from devastating floods. After doing everything he could to help the clean up, Harry decided he wanted to do more than just get his hands dirty. With the help of his family, Harry took the car he recently bought (after saving up for more than two years) and gave it to Dylan: a local who had lost everything in the flood. Natasha Shearer, who helped coordinate Harry’s generous donation, posted about the moment Harry handed over the keys at the weekend. <iframe style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fnshearerlambert%2Fposts%2F10159694343075926&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="809" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe> “Dylan was at work at the time and had no idea Harry was about to hand him a car,” Natasha wrote. <div id="ad-slot_out-of-page-mobile_section-index-1_pos-2" data-section-index="1"></div> “Dylan was in shock and really couldn’t believe that someone especially a beautiful young 17-year-old would come and hand over a car like that.” Harry had been saving over the last few years to buy the champagne-coloured Nissan, and decided to give it to the man who had lost his own home and car, and was couch-surfing for a place to stay and getting around on a pushbike. “We brought him out to the car,” Natasha told the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-12/teenager-donates-car-to-northern-nsw-flood-victim/100982504" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABC</a>. “We told him we had a few things for him in the car and, the next thing, Harry handed him the keys." “He cried, he couldn’t believe it. He was very, very appreciative and in shock.” While the clean-up efforts are continuing in Northern NSW, one local's life is now a little easier. Image credits: Facebook

Caring

Buddhist monks travel from Sydney to Lismore with huge gift

A group of Buddhist monks have donated $100,000 to people in Lismore affected by the recent floods - but simply donating the funds wasn’t enough. The group of monks made the trip from Sydney to Lismore to deliver their cheque in person and posed with Steve Krieg, the Mayor of Lismore, to mark the moment. <iframe style="overflow: hidden; border: initial none initial;" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSteve4Lismore%2Fposts%2F167754238933364&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="475" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe> “A wonderful group of Vietnamese Buddhist monks from Sydney came to visit last Wednesday, March 30 with a cheque for the flood appeal,” Mr Krieg shared on Facebook. “They donated $100,000 dollars! Thank you so much for your generosity.” “You never know who you are going to meet and what absolute blessings that you will get,” Mr Krieg told the ABC. “We went up to the evacuation centre and they met with evacuees and gave them all a small cash donation as well.” The group of monks aren’t the first to commit such an act of kindness either. A Sikh group from Melbourne made the trek to Lismore in early March with plenty of food to feed flood victims for eight days. <iframe style="overflow: hidden; border: initial none initial;" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fsikhvolunteers.australia%2Fposts%2F5625818044113965&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="544" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe> “Volunteering is a part of Sikh culture. It gives us a higher purpose and meaning. It doesn’t matter if I don’t sleep for a few days, the feeling I get from helping others is pure peace and calmness,” Jaswinder Singh, one of the volunteers involved, told the ABC. Sikh Volunteers Australia shared plenty of updates about their good work, including details of where locals could find them, and words of thanks to the local volunteers and others who helped them - which were reciprocated by many, including MPs and the NSW Greens. “We cannot thank you enough for the incredible generosity, selfless (sic) and dedication to always help communities in crisis. The amount of compassion is unmeasurable. Thank you SVA,” the Greens NSW commented on one <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sikhvolunteers.australia/posts/5630966706932432" target="_blank" rel="noopener">post</a>. Image: Steve Krieg (Facebook)

Domestic Travel

Queen Elizabeth praises Aussies’ spirit in face of floods

Queen Elizabeth II has sent a message thanking emergency service workers and support for those impacted in flood-affected communities. The message, posted to the royal’s official Instagram page on Wednesday morning, comes as residents in northern NSW prepare for even more heavy rain and flash flooding. “I have been following the news of the recent floods in Queensland and New South Wales closely and have been saddened to hear of the loss of life and the scale of devastation,” the post read. “In the immediate response, Australians’ resolute spirit and community mindedness has once again shone through. My thanks go out to the emergency services and many volunteers who have tirelessly assisted those in need. “My thoughts continue to be with those who have been impacted as the focus now turns to the long recovery phase ahead.” <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/Cb-9XomsEeT/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Cb-9XomsEeT/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by The Royal Family (@theroyalfamily)</a> </div> </blockquote> Queensland and NSW have been ravaged by repeated flooding over the past few months, but ongoing wild weather will continue to hamper the recovery and clean-up efforts. Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) meteorologist Sarah Scully said the central and south coasts of NSW could expect heavy rainfall for the rest of the week, as reported by the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/queens-message-to-flood-victims-as-nsw-coast-warned-to-prepare-for-heavy-rain-flash-flooding/rep7d96xn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SBS</a>. “We’re forecasting six hourly rainfall totals between 60 and 100mm, with up to 140mm about coastal areas,” Ms Scully said on Wednesday. Image: Getty Images

Caring

Lismore flood victims dump ruined belongings outside PM’s house

Lismore residents have taken their flood-affected belongings to Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Sydney residence, calling on him to act on climate change. Nine residents of the area, which has been devastated by recent flooding, brought a truck to Kirribilli House and dumped a number of items, including flood-ruined carpet, toys and furniture, outside the front gate earlier this week. Kate Stroud, who lost her home in the floods, said the group felt compelled to demonstrate after Mr Morrison visited the town earlier in the month but failed to speak to some residents. Ms Stroud lost her home in the floods, having been rescued by another resident on a jet ski after sheltering on her roof for six hours, and has said she wasn’t the only one looking to speak to the PM. “Everybody that I know has lost their homes, they’ve lost their businesses. We have basically lost our entire town,” she said on Monday morning. “We tried to have this conversation with him face to face in Lismore, but he slipped through the back door of our council chambers. If our leaders can’t come at least sit at a table with us and chat to us at times of devastation, what are they doing?” <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> At the Prime Minister’s residence, Kirribilli House, standing in solidarity with Lismore flood survivors. Calling on <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottyFromMktg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ScottyFromMktg</a> to stop funding the climate crisis. <a href="https://t.co/lHYSwZLZ7i">pic.twitter.com/lHYSwZLZ7i</a> — Naomi Hodgson (@CrystalNomes) <a href="https://twitter.com/CrystalNomes/status/1505653019718737921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2022</a></blockquote> Several residents held a ruined, mud-covered door with a message spray-painted on it in red. “Morrison, your climate megaflood destroyed our homes,” it read. Other signs read, ‘Lismore now, where next?’ and ‘Your climate inaction killed my neighbour’. Ms Stroud said residents were calling on the government to take action against climate change. “We are so sick of the bottomless promises when there is a bigger picture to look at,” she said. “We need to fund the climate crisis [response], this is climate change and this will happen to somebody you love, someone you know, or it could happen to you personally.” Although 9News reported that his car was seen leaving shortly before protestors arrived, Mr Morrison was in Queensland during Monday’s protest, according to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/flood-hit-lismore-residents-dump-debris-outside-kirribilli-house-20220321-p5a6dy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Sydney Morning Herald</a>. He responded to questions about the demonstration by referring to the $1.7 billion already committed to flood response and recovery, and that the bulk of the funds were already “out the door supporting people”. “These floods [across NSW and south-east Queensland] are the worst we’ve ever seen,” Mr Morrison said. “I can understand the frustration. But what I can assure you is the commitments [we’ve made] .. means we’ll be there with them to build back. “I think the politicisation of natural disasters is very unfortunate. Everyone’s just doing the best they can.” <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Lismore residents protest at Kirribilli House <a href="https://t.co/d5ciaZPaBd">pic.twitter.com/d5ciaZPaBd</a> — Carol Connolly (@carolcarcos) <a href="https://twitter.com/carolcarcos/status/1505682999505219586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2022</a></blockquote> Despite his absence, Lismore resident Kudra Ricketts told <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/lismore-flood-survivors-dump-debris-outside-pms-house/58b54741-e566-4bec-a667-7433b0753c18" target="_blank" rel="noopener">9News</a> she hoped the message she and the other demonstrators were sending would still reach Mr Morrison. “I hope that he’s able to listen to the media,” she said. “He’s done the same thing as he did when he was in Lismore. He didn’t want to talk to us. He doesn’t want to speak to us again. I can see that. It’s time he starts to listen to us. “I don’t want this to happen to anyone else. It’s been so traumatic for me and everyone that I love. Climate change is here now.” Image: Twitter

Domestic Travel

After the floods, the distressing but necessary case for managed retreat

From Brisbane to Sydney, many thousands of Australians have been reliving a devastating experience they hoped – in 2021, 2020, 2017, 2015, 2013, 2012 or 2010/11 – would never happen to them again. For some suburbs built on the flood plains of the Nepean River in western Sydney, for example, these floods are their <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydney-homeowners-devastated-by-three-floods-in-two-years-20220304-p5a1y0.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">third in two years</a>. Flooding is a part of life in parts of Australia. But as climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of floods, fires and other disasters, and recovery costs soar, two big questions arise. As a society, should we be setting up individuals and families for ruin by allowing them to build back in areas where they can’t afford insurance? And is it fair for taxpayers to carry the huge burden of paying for future rescue and relief costs? Considering ‘managed retreat’ Doing something about escalating disaster risks require multiple responses. One is making insurance as cheap as possible. Another is investing in mitigation infrastructure, such as flood levees. Yet another is about making buildings more disaster-resistant. The most controversial response is the policy of “managed retreat” – abandoning buildings in high-risk areas. In Australia this policy has been mostly discussed as something to consider some time in the future, and mostly for coastal communities, for homes that can’t be saved from rising sea levels and storm surges. It’s a sensitive subject because it uproots families, potentially hollows outs communities and also affects house prices – an unsettling prospect when economic security is tied to home ownership. But managed retreat may also be better than the chaotic consequences of letting the market alone try to work out the risks to individuals and communities. Grand Forks: a case study The strategy is already being implemented in parts of western Europe and North America. An example from Canada is the town of Grand Forks, a community of about 4,000 people 300 kilometres east of Vancouver. The town is located where two rivers meet. In May 2018 it experienced its worst flooding in seven decades, after days of extreme rain <a href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/impacts/an-old-growth-forest-in-b-c-was-cut-down-then-a-nearby-town-flooded" target="_blank" rel="noopener">attributed to</a> higher than normal winter snowfall melting quickly in hotter spring temperatures. Deforestation has been blamed for exacerbating the flood. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450871/original/file-20220309-22-v2begh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450871/original/file-20220309-22-v2begh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450871/original/file-20220309-22-v2begh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450871/original/file-20220309-22-v2begh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450871/original/file-20220309-22-v2begh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450871/original/file-20220309-22-v2begh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450871/original/file-20220309-22-v2begh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>Flooding in Grand Forks, British Columbia. Shutterstock</figcaption></figure> The flood damaged about 500 buildings in Grand Forks, with <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/climate-change/adaptation/resources/social_impacts_grand_forks_flood.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lowest-income neighbourhoods</a> in low-lying areas the worst-affected. In the aftermath the local council received C$53 million from the federal and provincial governments for flood mitigation. This included work to reinforce river banks and build dikes. About a <a href="https://www.rosslandnews.com/news/grand-forks-flood-affected-properties-to-be-bought-at-post-flood-value/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quarter of the money</a> was allocated to acquire about 80 homes in the most flood-prone areas. The decision to demolish these homes – <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=POPC&Code1=0333&Geo2=PR&Code2=59&SearchText=Grand%20Forks&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&GeoLevel=PR&GeoCode=0333&TABID=1&type=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 5%</a> of the town’s housing – and return the area to flood plain has been contentious. Some residents simply didn’t <a href="https://building.ca/flood-victims-in-grand-forks-b-c-in-limbo-more-than-one-year-after-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">want to sell</a>. Adding to the pain was owners being paid the post-flood market value of their homes (saving the council <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/grand-forks-houses-assessed-post-flood-value-buyout-1.5197831" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about C$6 million</a>). There were also long delays, with residents stuck in limbo <a href="https://building.ca/flood-victims-in-grand-forks-b-c-in-limbo-more-than-one-year-after-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">for more than year</a> while authorities finalised transactions. A sensitive subject Grand Forks shares similarities to Lismore, the epicentre of the disaster affecting northern NSW and southern Queensland. Lismore is also built on a flood plain where two rivers meet. Floods are a regular occurrence, with the last major disaster being in 2017. Insuring properties in town’s most flood-prone areas was already <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/02/lismore-businesses-that-couldnt-afford-insurance-premiums-face-huge-flood-damage-bills" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unaffordable for some</a>. In the future it may be impossible. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451512/original/file-20220311-17-yd0jtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451512/original/file-20220311-17-yd0jtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451512/original/file-20220311-17-yd0jtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451512/original/file-20220311-17-yd0jtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451512/original/file-20220311-17-yd0jtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451512/original/file-20220311-17-yd0jtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451512/original/file-20220311-17-yd0jtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451512/original/file-20220311-17-yd0jtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Lismore resident Robert Bialowas cleans out his home on March 3 2022." /></a><figcaption>Lismore resident Robert Bialowas cleans out his home on March 3 2022. Jason O'Brien/AAP, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> Last week NSW premier Dominic Perrottet said about 2,000 of the town’s 19,000 homes would need to be demolished and rebuilt, a statement the local council general manager downplayed, saying in the majority of cases “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/thousands-of-flooded-buildings-in-north-nsw-may-not-be-condemned/100889230" target="_blank" rel="noopener">people will not have to worry</a>”. For a community traumatised by loss, overwhelmed by the recovery effort and angry at the perceived tardiness of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-11/morrison-lismore-community-calls-for-action-on-flood-disaster/100900496" target="_blank" rel="noopener">government relief efforts</a>, discussing any form of managed retreat is naturally emotionally charged. But there’s never an ideal time to talk about bulldozing homes and relocating households. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451510/original/file-20220311-13-64nek3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451510/original/file-20220311-13-64nek3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451510/original/file-20220311-13-64nek3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451510/original/file-20220311-13-64nek3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451510/original/file-20220311-13-64nek3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451510/original/file-20220311-13-64nek3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451510/original/file-20220311-13-64nek3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451510/original/file-20220311-13-64nek3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Lismore residents Tim Fry and Zara Coronakes and son Ezekiel outside their home on March 11 2022." /></a><figcaption>Lismore residents Tim Fry and Zara Coronakes and son Ezekiel outside their home on March 11 2022. Jason O'Brien/AAP, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> Uprooting communities Managed retreat has far-reaching financial ramifications. As in Grand Forks, the first questions are what homes are targeted, who pays, and how much. Some residents may be grateful to sell up and move to safe ground. Others may not, disputing the valuation offered or being reluctant to leave at any price. Managed retreat policies also affect many more than just those whose homes are being acquired. Demolishing a block or suburb can push down values in neighbouring areas, due to fears these homes may be next. Those households are also customers for local businesses. Their loss can potentially send a town economy into decline. No wonder many people want no mention of managed retreat in their communities. Pricing in climate change Markets, however, are already starting to “price in” rising climate risks. Insurance premiums are going up. The value of homes in high-risk areas will drop as buyers look elsewhere, particularly in the wake of increasingly frequent disasters. The economic fallout, both for individual households and local communities, could be disastrous. The Reserve Bank of Australia <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2021/sep/climate-change-risks-to-australian-banks.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warned</a> in September 2021 that climate-related disasters could rapidly drive house prices down, particularly in areas that have previously experienced rapid house price growth. These disasters are also amplifying inequality, with poorer households more likely to live in high-risk locations and also to be uninsured. In Lismore, for example, more than 80% of households flooded in 2017 were in the lowest <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-020-03887-z" target="_blank" rel="noopener">20% of incomes</a>. These trends will intensify as growing climate risks translate into higher insurance premiums and lower house prices. A deliberate strategy of managed retreat, though distressing and difficult, can help to minimise the upheaval in housing markets as climate risks become increasingly apparent. We can do better than leaving the most socially and economically vulnerable households to live in high-risk areas, while those with enough money can move away to better, safer futures. Managed retreat can play a key role.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178641/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/antonia-settle-1019551" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Antonia Settle</a>, Academic (McKenzie Postdoctoral Research Fellow), <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The University of Melbourne</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-floods-the-distressing-but-necessary-case-for-managed-retreat-178641" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original article</a>. Image: Getty Images

Domestic Travel

Scammers target flood victims in new low

In the aftermath of the floods that have devastated much of northern NSW and Queensland, those affected have something else to worry about - scammers. As Aussies begin to rebuild their homes and businesses, many are filing insurance claims. But, reports have begun to emerge of scammers trying to take advantage of flood victims by posing as insurance providers. <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/CavpKLzhHqI/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CavpKLzhHqI/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Ali King MP (@aliforpumicestone)</a> </div> </blockquote> Ali King, the MP of Pumicestone in Queensland, said she received a text from an alleged scammer who claimed they would help with her insurance claim after the floods. The only problem was that she didn’t make a claim. “I got a text today from someone assigned to help me with my insurance claim. I don’t have an insurance claim,” she said on Instagram. Stephen Jones, the MP for Whitlam, also took to social media, using King’s tweet to warn those who may become victims of scammers on top of the floods. “We’ve seen the best of Australia in the huge outpouring of support for those affected by these devastating floods,” he wrote. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Thanks <a href="https://twitter.com/StephenJonesMP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@StephenJonesMP</a> - we need better laws to deal with these grubs. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/auspol?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#auspol</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/QLDFloods2022?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#QLDFloods2022</a> <a href="https://t.co/FD2vjI9pxg">https://t.co/FD2vjI9pxg</a> — Ali King MP (@AliKingLabor) <a href="https://twitter.com/AliKingLabor/status/1501017186537975813?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 8, 2022</a></blockquote> “But scammers posing as insurance agents are looking to exploit people trying to pick up the pieces of their lives. “Look out for suspicious messages and phone calls. Share information with your communities so they know what to watch out for. “Working together we can stop these scammers from taking advantage of yet another tragedy.” A spokesperson for the ACC told <a href="https://7news.com.au/technology/scammers-posing-as-insurance-providers-target-flood-victims--c-5961535" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7News</a> that they were yet to see reports of the scams, but still urged Aussies to remain cautious. According to the ACCC, here are several things people can do to protect themselves from scams: <ul> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> Don’t click on hyperlinks in texts, social media messages or emails, even if it appears to come from a trusted source </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> Never reply to unsolicited messages asking for personal or financial details </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> To determine if a contact is legitimate, look them up through an independent source such as a phone book or online search </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> Never send money or personal information, such as credit card details, to anyone you don’t know or trust </li> </ul> If you believe you have fallen victim to a scam, contact your bank and consider lodging a complaint with the <a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afca.org.au%2F&data=04%7C01%7CSuWoolley%40seven.com.au%7Cc6008f2b54f04dd1bfb008d9df928a4c%7Cb359291241554399b790752c894d2935%7C0%7C0%7C637786642752505908%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0&sdata=34rdRdW3WEJ0j6pj0PBqVm4Ixxy91pCjrwwk7LQSoME%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Australian Financial Complaints Authority</a> if you’re not satisfied with the bank’s response. Image: Getty Images

Technology

Midnight cyclist charged with looting

A man <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-qld/man-charged-with-looting-claimed-he-found-a-bicycle-on-a-footpath-in-flooded-area/news-story/8046b2827f46de7d1098fc49bb118d98" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has been charged</a> with looting after being stopped by police in the middle of the night in one of Brisbane’s flood-affected suburbs. Police officers were patrolling the suburbs of Milton and Auchenflower on the lookout for looting when they questioned Michael Peter Rose, who was riding a bicycle at 12.20am on Saturday. Mr Rose allegedly told police he found the bike on a footpath along with other discarded items. However, the police allege the bicycle looked brand new - and undamaged by the floods - with a defence lawyer telling the court that police didn’t accept his explanation before charging him with stealing by looting in a natural disaster. The 36-year-old appeared in Brisbane Magistrates Court on Saturday facing several additional charges he was meant to appear in court for in February. The previous charges included committing an indecent act in a public place, failure to appear on a bail undertaking and entering premises and committing an indictable offence. Police prosecutor Sergeant Wade Domagala opposed awarding Mr Rose bail, saying the risk he would fail to appear in court or commit other offences was unacceptable. Mr Rose claimed his earlier failure to appear in court was due to a text he received from the court saying he wasn’t required to attend, while his lawyer said the phone the text was on had been lost. Magistrate Tracy Mossop said Mr Rose failed to appear in court, contravened a probation order and was in breach of a suspended sentence. She said Mr Rose hadn’t shown any cause for why he should be granted bail and remanded him in custody. He is due to appear via video link in early April. Image: Getty Images

Legal

‘One of the most extreme disasters in colonial Australian history’

The deluge dumped on southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales this week has been catastrophic. Floodwaters peaked at around 14.4 metres high in Lismore – two metres higher than the city’s previous record. So how does this compare to Australia’s previous floods, such as in 2011? And can we expect more frequent floods at this scale under climate change? The answers to questions like these aren’t straightforward. Climate change doesn’t tell the whole story, as extreme rainfall can occur for a <a href="https://theconversation.com/like-rivers-in-the-sky-the-weather-system-bringing-floods-to-queensland-will-become-more-likely-under-climate-change-176711">variety of reasons</a>. What’s more, it’s too soon to officially state whether this event is directly linked to climate change, as this would require a formal event attribution study. This can take months or years to produce. In any case, we do know extreme events like this will occur more frequently in a warmer world. And the rising death toll, ongoing evacuations and destroyed homes make this one of the most extreme natural disasters in colonial Australian history. How this compares to floods in our past The east coast is a common place for heavy rainfall and flooding. The Yugara and Yugarabul people have <a href="https://www.oxleycreekcatchment.org.au/history/">traditional stories about great floods</a> in the Brisbane river region long before European colonisation, and sediments from floodplains indicate floods as severe as those in 2010–2011 have occurred <a href="https://theconversation.com/old-floods-show-brisbanes-next-big-wet-might-be-closer-than-we-think-70392">at least seven times in the past 1,000 years</a>. Instrumental records and <a href="https://www.slq.qld.gov.au/blog/overview-brisbane-river-floods">documentary accounts</a> show severe floods have inundated southern Queensland’s cities and towns in the 1820s, early 1840s and 1890s, 1931, 1974 and, of course, in 2010–2011. Each of these events have been devastating, and record-breaking, depending on which records you’re interested in. The floods in 1841 and 1893 are considered highest in terms of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-16/brisbane-flood-history-should-not-take-people-by-surprise/13051826">water levels recorded in Brisbane city</a>, reaching over 8m. Australia’s wettest day on record was also recorded in 1893, when Crohamhurst in the Glasshouse Mountains measured 907 millimetres in one day. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449172/original/file-20220301-4202-1lwf5fm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449172/original/file-20220301-4202-1lwf5fm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449172/original/file-20220301-4202-1lwf5fm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449172/original/file-20220301-4202-1lwf5fm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449172/original/file-20220301-4202-1lwf5fm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449172/original/file-20220301-4202-1lwf5fm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449172/original/file-20220301-4202-1lwf5fm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Black and white image of men in a small boat in front of a tall brick building that is half submerged in flood water. The building had 'West End Brewery' written on it" /><figcaption>The West End Brewery in Brisbane in 1890. The Brewery building was damaged even further in the 1893 flood, when the Brisbane River rose 10 feet above the 1890 record. John Oxley Library, State Library of Queensland</figcaption></figure> The 1974 event was associated with extreme rainfall totals in many coastal areas, including 314mm in one day in Brisbane, and more than a metre of rainfall was recorded over three days in places such as Mount Tamborine and the northwest of Surfers Paradise. The 2010–11 flood, while not as severe in terms of extreme rainfall totals, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs24b.pdf">was notable for its inland extent</a>, and was the final act of Australia’s wettest July to December on record. The current flood has peaked at 3.85m in Brisbane, below the 2010–2011 levels of 4.46m. But it’s breaking records in other areas such as Lismore in northern NSW. The rainfall statistics associated with this event are also nearing the highest on record for many places, possibly due to the slow-moving nature of the associated weather system. Four of the top six highest rainfall totals in NSW were <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/second-heaviest-daily-rainfall-ever-observed-in-nsw/536322">recorded on 28 February</a>, and Brisbane has just experienced three days of over 200mm. These aren’t the highest daily totals ever recorded in the city, but the first time three days of such intense falls have been documented, in data that go back to 1841. Disentangling the role of climate change When it comes to understanding the role of human-induced climate change in extreme events, there is the temptation to ask the wrong question: “did climate change cause this event?” Since any extreme event is always a manifestation of climate variability, large weather systems, local-scale weather and climate change, it’s impossible to categorically answer this question with a simple “yes” or “no”. Instead, the question we should be asking is “did climate change contribute to this event?” Well, firstly, there has actually been a slight decrease in summer rainfall in southeast Queensland and northeast NSW since the mid-20th century. But, there’s very high variability in rainfall for this region, and La Niña – a natural climate phenonenon associated with wetter weather – often brings flooding to this area, as we saw in 2010/2011 and in the 1970s. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449171/original/file-20220301-15-1h65whn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449171/original/file-20220301-15-1h65whn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449171/original/file-20220301-15-1h65whn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449171/original/file-20220301-15-1h65whn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449171/original/file-20220301-15-1h65whn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449171/original/file-20220301-15-1h65whn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449171/original/file-20220301-15-1h65whn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449171/original/file-20220301-15-1h65whn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Trends in maximum 3-day rainfall in summer (December-February) from 1959/1960 to 2019/2020 show mixed trends in the flood-affected region. White areas are where station coverage is sparse or the dataset fails a quality control test. Author provided</figcaption></figure> Indeed, the effect of La Niña (and its counterpart El Niño, associated with drier weather) makes identifying a climate change-related trend more difficult. In other words, while a human-induced climate change signal may be present, the naturally high variability makes it hard to spot. The atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more moisture for every degree Celsius of global warming. However, we also need the right weather systems in place to trigger the release of moisture from the air and cause extreme rainfall. The climate change effect on these systems is uncertain. Climate change and weather systems The severity of the flooding in southeast Queensland is partly due to a weather system called an “<a href="https://theconversation.com/like-rivers-in-the-sky-the-weather-system-bringing-floods-to-queensland-will-become-more-likely-under-climate-change-176711">atmospheric river</a>” sitting over the region for days. To make matters worse, the rain fell on an already sodden ground due to both the higher-than-average rainfall from the current La Niña, and the La Niña in the 2020-2021 summer. This made a huge difference to the scale of the floods. We don’t fully understand how the persistence of these natural systems will change in future, but recent work shows climate change will cause long-lasting atmospheric rivers over Sydney to occur <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021GL095335">almost twice as often</a> by the end of the 21st century. We don’t know yet if that’s also true further north of Sydney. To complicate things further, there’s <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/expect-twice-as-many-extreme-la-nina-events-under-climate-change-study-warns">evidence</a> to suggest climate change may be influencing the frequency, intensity and impacts of El Niño and La Niña events. <a href="https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/regional-information#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">Climate change projections</a> also suggest we may see small increases in the number of extreme one-day rainfall events which typically lead to flash flooding, in eastern Australia. But there’s a lot of uncertainty. And worldwide, <a href="https://theconversation.com/mass-starvation-extinctions-disasters-the-new-ipcc-reports-grim-predictions-and-why-adaptation-efforts-are-falling-behind-176693">Monday’s report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected that global warming of 2℃ this century will bring twice as much flood damage compared to 1.5℃ warming. This jumps to 3.9 times more flood damage at 3℃ warming. While the role of climate change is hard to pin down in Australia’s biggest floods, we know flooding often strikes our east coast. Building greater resilience to severe flooding would help lessen their impact. Taking steps like concentrating new housing and infrastructure projects in areas above flood plains would help make us less vulnerable to these events. <img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178153/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/linden-ashcroft-152419">Linden Ashcroft</a>, Lecturer in climate science and science communication, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sarah-perkins-kirkpatrick-58472">Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick</a>, Chief Investigator on the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes; ARC Future Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-of-the-most-extreme-disasters-in-colonial-australian-history-climate-scientists-on-the-floods-and-our-future-risk-178153">original article</a>.

Domestic Travel

"We’ve got a pandemic baby and a flood baby": Mum’s twin miracles

A woman trapped by flood waters was rescued by a heroic neighbour in his kayak just in time for her to give birth. Krystle Henry was stranded in her home in Taringa, Brisbane, after flood waters surged up the driveway - preventing her from leaving to go to the hospital. But her quick-thinking neighbour Rob came to the rescue, kayaking Ms Henry to dry land on Sunday afternoon. She and her partner Matt Bridges welcomed their newborn son, Angus, into the world at Mater Mothers’ Hospital Brisbane on Tuesday morning. Mr Bridges said he would be forever grateful to his neighbour for helping their son arrive safely. “We didn’t know Bob, but he was more than happy to help us out and I’m so thankful Angus arrived safely,” he <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/parenting/mum-gives-birth-to-baby-boy-after-she-was-rescued-in-a-kayak-from-flood-waters-in-brisbane-c-5911798" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>. <img src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/2022/03/krystle.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="720" /> Krystle Henry and Matt Bridges with their newborn son, Angus. Image: Krystle Henry “I’m so glad I got to the delivery room in time. Angus is the couple’s second child, after Ms Henry gave birth to their daughter Olive in 2020. “We’ve got a pandemic baby… and now we have a flood baby,” Mr Bridges said. Mater obstetrician Dr Paul Conaghen said he had never delivered a baby in such a chaotic situation, and praised the couple for their calm attitude. “Considering the situation, Krystle and Matt remained very calm,” he said. “I couldn’t imagine being 39 weeks pregnant stuck in flood waters.” But Angus isn’t the only flood baby to be born in such circumstances, after another couple were rescued by kayak, this time by the SES. <img src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/2022/03/felicity-jacques.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="720" /> Felicity and Alex were rescued by SES volunteers before going on to welcome their newborn son into the world. Image: Felicity Jacques Sherwood couple Felicity and Alex Jacques called the SES for help when their cars flooded in the underground carpark of Alex’s parents home, where they were staying. The couple stayed in a hotel near the hospital overnight, before Ms Jacques went into labour early on Monday morning. Their baby son, Andrew Jacques, was also born on Tuesday, weighing 3.35 kg. “I hate to think what would have happened if we weren’t close to the hospital,” Ms Jacques said. “I’m so relieved our little one is here. He is definitely a little miracle.” Paula Foley, the chief operating officer at Mater Mothers’ Hospital, said the past week had seen many mums and families going to extraordinary lengths to get to the hospital to give birth. “It’s been an incredibly stressful time for many of our new mums and dads,” she said. “But we’ve had 188 babies born at Mater Mothers’ South Brisbane in the past week, despite the flooding.” Image: Krystle Henry

News

"You are the real heroes": Chris Hemworth’s wife thanks flood heroes

Chris Hemworth’s wife Elsa Pataky has <a href="https://celebrity.nine.com.au/latest/elsa-pataky-chris-hemsworth-instagram-message-floods-northern-nsw-praising-heroes/541f1150-eff4-4616-925d-3d094510c4f7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shared</a> a tribute to some real-life heroes as the floods continue to devastate northern NSW and Queensland. The 45-year-old model, who lives in Byron Bay with her actor husband, took to Instagram to thank the heroes who were out saving lives. “Northern Rivers and beyond had been hit by the worst floods in history. People have spent hours waiting on rooftops to be rescued,” she wrote in a post accompanying several images depicting the devastation. <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/Caj6nGov5la/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Caj6nGov5la/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Elsa Pataky (@elsapatakyconfidential)</a> </div> </blockquote> “Thanks to all those who are able to help save people and animals stranded by the floodwaters, you are the real heroes. “So amazing to watch how everyone pulls together in a disaster and helps the community. Our hearts go out to those affected by the floods. Stay safe!” Days earlier, Pataky shared her own experience with the flood crisis, revealing how the floodwaters had stopped her from taking her daughter to school. In a video she shared online, Pataky can be seen abandoning the car and heading to school on foot. “I don’t think [we] will make it to school today,” she captioned the clip. Her message comes as approximately 400,000 people from Lismore, Brisbane and Ballina have been forced to evacuate. On Wednesday, the national death toll from the floods stood at 10, after bodies were recovered in Lismore and Glen Esk, Queensland. Images: @elsapatakyconfidential (Instagram)

News

Pro surfer Mick Fanning’s heroic act

Surfing legend Mick Fanning braved dangerous floodwaters to assist a pharmacist to open her shop and provide residents with their much-needed medication. Forty-year-old Fanning didn’t think twice when Skye Swift – one half of local pharmacy outfit Varella and Swift – put a call out on Facebook for a ride from Tweed into Murwillumbah, in northern NSW, to help hand out medicine to members of the community. Fanning jumped onto his jet ski and made his way to Swift and was met with others ready to help. “In a collective effort she arrived at her pharmacy with the assistance of two men in a tinny, several 4WDs and also on the back of world champion Mick Fanning’s jet ski,’ Swift’s brother Anthony told <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/nsw-flood-update-mick-fanning-jet-ski-rescue-pharmacy-murwillumbah/133f1b3d-f560-42fc-9f42-cc098dd2655f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nine News</a>. “That’s community spirit for you.” Swift took to Facebook and thanked the local community for their help. “I made it to Varela & Swift Pharmacy thanks to the fb community. Open til 5 pm for urgent supplies,” she wrote. “There may be a wait so thanks for your patience. If your scripts are at another pharmacy, that’s no problem. We can help.” Image: Facebook

Caring

Why are homes still being built along rivers? Flooded residents disagree on the solution

Like many residents living near Calgary’s rivers, Irene’s house flooded in June 2013 when heavy rainfall melted the snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, inundating much of southern Alberta in what was, at the time, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/2810070/top-10-most-costly-disasters-in-canadian-history-for-insurers/">the costliest disaster in Canadian history</a>. Irene watched as her belongings floated down the street. Everything in her basement and the first level of her home had to be discarded into a trash pile in her front yard. Reflecting on this trauma and her home’s devastation, she said: “Developers get away with a lot of shit they shouldn’t get away with.” She recalled arguing years earlier with the developer about how close to the river it planned to build the houses, and wondered if it might have been worse had her home been built as close to the river as initially planned. I was part of a team <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/15356841211046265">studying housing, environmental views and hazards</a> who interviewed residents of Calgary’s flood-affected neighbourhoods. Remarks like Irene’s were common. Calgary and many other cities, including <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/housing-development-in-ste-marthe-sur-le-lac-was-mainly-in-flood-zone">Montréal</a>, <a href="https://www.mapleridgenews.com/news/maple-ridge-council-proceeds-with-riverfront-subdivision/">Vancouver</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2019-10-08/commentary-the-danger-of-development-in-flood-prone-areas">Myrtle Beach</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Even-after-Harvey-Houston-keeps-adding-new-homes-13285865.php">Houston</a>, continue to build houses in areas that hydrologists and engineers have designated as being high-risk for flooding. In most jurisdictions, home-builders are not financially liable for flooding for very long. In <a href="https://www.qp.alberta.ca/documents/Acts/n03p2.pdf">Alberta, the window of liability is one year</a>, at which point the risk is transferred to homeowners. Following floods and other disasters, research shows that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/sof.0.0047">development of new housing does not slow</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sox054">but intensifies</a>, as flooded properties lose value, are bought by developers and, as memory of flooding fades, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/calgary-home-built-after-alberta-floods-11604521775">become lucrative investments</a>. <h2>The residents’ point of view</h2> The residents I spoke with viewed developers as myopic capitalists who choose profit over safety. Scott told me that while developers are responsible for driving the hazard risk, “You can’t blame the developers, they are … there to make bucks, right? And if the city says you can build there then, bingo!… They make a pile.” Surprisingly, even though their homes had been flooded, residents were not angry at developers for situating the houses close to a hazard. Rather, they were resigned to it. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434534/original/file-20211129-19-1bqnj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="A man wearing a mask and work gloves throws muddy debris into a pile next to a house." /> Yahya Abougoush helps clean up his parents’ house in High River, Alta., on July 3, 2013. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh When asked what they thought should be done to keep people safe from floods, residents had two very different suggestions. <h2>Better regulations</h2> A sizeable group of Calgarians favoured new government regulations limiting development in flood-prone areas to rein in developers. Rachel said, “They can’t build where the city says they can’t…. It has to be government who says it can’t be done.” Gary said he believes Calgary’s municipal government “lacks the balls” to stand up to developers and regulate floodplain development. When asked why that was, he said, “It’s about money” and the political influence that developers wield over city council. Residents viewed the municipal government as weak, ineffectual and unwilling to stand up to developers. Quite often, the same people who argued for better government regulations on floodplain development also insisted that government should provide home buyers with a disclosure of a home’s location in a flood-prone area, a move that the real estate industry has dubbed “idiotic” and one that would “<a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/jeff-goodell/the-water-will-come/9780316260206/">kill the market</a>.” <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431443/original/file-20211111-27-1w1jkn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="A gravel path and some strips of grass separate a row of homes from a river." /> New homes in Riverstone, with Bow River visible on the left. (Timothy Haney), Author provided Tasha wished she had been informed of the risk prior to buying her home, and told us, “I have lived here for 42 years and I have never heard of ‘flood fringe’ … maybe realtors should be more upfront about that.” The flood fringe is the area adjacent to the river with measurable flood risk — usually greater than one per cent annual probability of flooding. Angela said any declaration must go beyond a simple disclosure and “explain what it means.” Many preferred this type of new regulation. <h2>Buyer beware</h2> As one might expect in Alberta, a place known for <a href="https://press.ucalgary.ca/books/9781773850252/">right-wing populism</a>, other participants pushed back against new regulations and said individuals must bear responsibility. They deferred to the sanctity of private property rights and their distaste for government overreach. They felt that buyers must beware, often mentioning the need for “common sense.” Caleb said, “I think people can live wherever they want, but I think they have to carry that risk.” Others called it “instinctual.” Sociologists, like me, are often critical of “common sense,” looking at how such taken-for-granted knowledge is a culturally dependent and contextually specific <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/678271">product of socialization</a>. Still, many Calgarians did not see it this way and did not believe that the government should infringe on private property rights. <h2>Precaution over profits</h2> Calgary, like many cities, continues to develop <a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/development-dispute-chaparral-residents-say-proposed-community-would-put-their-homes-at-risk-1.5326215">new housing close to rivers</a>. New neighbourhoods like Riverstone and Quarry Park offer housing marketed for their picturesque living and river access. In other areas, older homes near the river are being <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/life/homes/condos/white-the-evolution-of-calgarys-infill-housing">razed to make room for infills</a> — usually two or more homes on an existing lot. These infill developments increase the density in river-adjacent communities, putting more residents at risk. The lack of consensus among the study participants was also noteworthy. Citizen activism tends to get mixed results in influencing government decision-making on development <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13604813.2019.1690337">even when</a> there is <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295748696/pushed-out/">relative consensus</a>. But in the case of restricting development near rivers, there is no such consensus, which may make it difficult for residents to mobilize. My own view is that municipal governments must stand up to moneyed development and home-building interests by restricting growth near rivers, which should instead be preserved as green space. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434535/original/file-20211129-59784-d6hlez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="aerial view of a bend in a river with some elongated islands, several bridges and homes and business developments on each bank." /> After floods in 1993 and 1995, and facing future flooding due to climate change, the Dutch city of Nijmegen gave more room to the Waal River during periods of high water by relocating a dike and dredging a new channel. (DaMatriX/Wikimedia), <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" class="license">CC BY-SA</a> This approach is often called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2020.1723604">room for the river</a>,” and is particularly popular in northern and western Europe. With this approach, areas immediately adjacent to waterways are preserved, providing esthetic and recreational value, and people are moved away via buyouts when necessary. New development is restricted. It has been imported and applied in North American cities such as <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/cities-around-globe-eagerly-importing-dutch-speciality-flood-prevention-180973679/">Norfolk, Va.</a>, though with varying degrees of consistency and success. The more volatile climate we are experiencing as a result of climate change will undoubtedly bring new flood events near rivers and mounting flood losses. Society must work harder to keep people and property away from the water, starting with halting new developments near these hazards. The first step in getting out of a hole, of course, is to stop digging.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171660/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/timothy-j-haney-1032153">Timothy J. Haney</a>, Professor of Sociology and Board of Governors Research Chair in Resilience & Sustainability, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/mount-royal-university-966">Mount Royal University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-homes-still-being-built-along-rivers-flooded-residents-disagree-on-the-solution-171660">original article</a>. Image: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

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Viral Christmas photo prompts flood of donations and gifts

A 12-year-old boy and his family have received a flood of donations, after a photo of him pulling a Christmas tree out of a pile of rubbish went viral. Gabriel Silva lives with his mother and two older brothers in a mud hut in Pinheiro, a town in northeastern Brazil, and spends most days after school digging through mountains of rubbish at the nearby dump. On November 8, he uncovered a discarded plastic bag containing a small artificial Christmas tree. “I had never had a Christmas tree before,” he <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/christmas-tree-turns-symbol-of-hope-at-brazil-dump/JMPG6HOAF5XRBIDDEB2PWMXGPI/" target="_blank">said</a>. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"> || <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/fotojornalismo?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#fotojornalismo</a> 📷 O poder da fotografia. Um registro feito pelo fotógrafo João Paulo Guimarães no município de Pinheiro, a 333 km de São Luís, tem chamado atenção nos últimos dias. Uma foto tirada em um lixão da cidade mostra Gabriel, de 12 anos, que acompanhava a mãe <a href="https://t.co/eHt2BL1j2T">pic.twitter.com/eHt2BL1j2T</a> — Biólogo Henrique, o Biólogo das Cobras (@BiologoHenrique) <a href="https://twitter.com/BiologoHenrique/status/1468026523785613316?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2021</a></blockquote> The image of Silva with his find, taken by photographer Joao Paulo Guimaraes, quickly went viral. Instead of the small tree, Silva’s home now has a giant Christmas tree inside, gifted by a benefactor who was moved by the photograph, as well as a flood of other donations. “We’ve gotten clothes, mattresses, baskets of food. Thank God, we’ll be able to get by fine for Christmas this year,” Silva’s mother, Maria Francisca Silva, said. The family has also received money through online collections - coming as a significant jump from the approximately 600 reais ($NZD 157) Maria Francisca makes selling recyclable materials from the dump each month. After an initial donation of 500 reais, the family has fulfilled a longtime wish and installed a hydraulic pump, replacing the rope and bucket they use to retrieve water from their well. They also hope to fulfill another wish of building an actual house. But Silva’s favourite gift was a bicycle he received from a teacher at school. He spends most of his free time at the dump with his mother, who says he always helps her. “I prefer to bring him with me. If I let him run around in the street, he could get into drugs, do things he’s not supposed to do,” Maria Francisca said. “He’s a good boy. He always helps me.” Along with a flood of gifts, the viral photo has turned Silva into a local celebrity. “Every day, people want to take my picture, ask me things,” he said. Guimaraes, who lives in the neighbouring state of Para, said he got the idea to shoot photos at the dump after seeing a video captured by Pinheiro’s public defender Eurico Arruda. In the clip, residents are chasing a garbage truck carrying rubbish from a supermarket. “It was just crazy. There were probably 50 people chasing it,” Arruda said. “That dump is like something out of the apocalypse. There are fires and smoke everywhere, vultures, dogs. It’s the bottom rung of destitute poverty.” Arruda hopes Silva’s photo will raise awareness of people like him and his family, and has set up a cooperative to help trash-pickers defend their rights. The local government has also promised that trash-pickers would receive monthly welfare payments of 100 reais ($24), and has vowed to build a legal dump that complies with sanitation regulations next year. Images: Joao Paulo Guimaraes / Getty Images

Caring

Mapping floods on every street in the world

<div class="copy"> Accurate, street-level data on flooding risk is tremendously useful when preparing for natural disasters. But this data can be very hard to come by, especially in poorer nations. Enter the <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://floodmapping.inweh.unu.edu/" target="_blank">World Flood Mapping Tool</a>, a new site developed by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH). The tool contains detailed 3D maps of all the world’s floods since 1985. “As temperatures continue to rise, the number of flood events will increase along with their severity,” says Hamid Mehmood, a GIS and remote sensing specialist at UNU-INWEH, who was lead developer on the tool. “No place is immune. And yet remarkably few regions, even in wealthy countries, have useful, up-to-date flood maps because of the cost and difficulty of creating them.” The free mapping tool, which is available on UNU’s <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://inweh.unu.edu/" target="_blank">website</a>, is designed to be simple to use. Users can select an area of the world map in which they’re interested, enter a time frame, and the tool generates a map showing which parts of the area were inundated. They can also view population density, land type and 3D images of building structures. “We need to prepare now for more intense and more frequent floods due to climate change,” says Vladimir Smakhtin, director of UNU-INWEH. “This tool will help developing nations in particular to see and mitigate the risks more clearly.” The tool uses satellite data from the Google Earth Engine to discern flooded land. The researchers tested the satellite-generated data against eight well-documented flooding events (including the February 2008 <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/flood-mackay-queensland/" target="_blank">Queensland floods</a>), finding the tool to be 82% accurate. The researchers say their tool will be particularly helpful for urban planning and development, as it can pinpoint precise areas that are at risk of flooding. “Painting a detailed picture of the historical and potential flood-risk areas will be invaluable for any urban and regional planning department,” says collaborator Duminda Perera. Image credits: Getty Images</div> <div id="contributors"> This article was originally published on <a rel="noopener" href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/water/mapping-floods-on-every-street-in-the-world/" target="_blank">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Ellen Phiddian. </div>

Technology

100-year-old man receives a flood of birthday wishes

A man about to celebrate his 101st birthday has received a flood of cards and gifts, following an appeal from staff at the care home where he lives. Jack Annall, from West Yorkshire in the UK, was disappointed to find out that his daughter Mary was unable to visit him from Australia for his upcoming birthday. To help the centenarian celebrate his birthday, care home manager Vicky Gudgin appealed for cards to be sent to Mr Annall. To everyone’s surprise, over 500 people answered the call from around the world. <img style="width: 500px; height:281.25px;" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7843201/101-birthday2.jpg" alt="" data-udi="umb://media/6c77e757f5a84bb5a0f84c4c8bc16c79" /> Cards have begun piling up at the aged care home. Image: BBC “I knew he was feeling a little bit down about not being able to see his daughter and I thought, what can we do to lift his spirits?” Mrs Gudgin said. “I thought, let’s get the community involved and the extent it has is incredible.” Initially, Mrs Gudgin asked other care homes in the area to send cards, but her request soon saw hundreds more send their well wishes after it was shared on social media. <img style="width: 500px; height:281.25px;" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7843200/101-birthday3.jpg" alt="" data-udi="umb://media/592f34b874ea48e38e92312653090052" /> Up to 500 people have sent Mr Connell birthday messages. Image: BBC Mr Annall, who worked as a joiner and served in the RAF during World War Two, will be treated to a brass band concert and receive a visit from the RAF on his birthday. He has video calls with his daughter twice a week and is visited by his niece once a week. Image: BBC

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Viral Christmas photo prompts flood of donations and gifts

Mapping floods on every street in the world

100-year-old man receives a flood of birthday wishes