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MH370 disappearance 10 years on: can we still find it

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/charitha-pattiaratchi-110101">Charitha Pattiaratchi</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067">The University of Western Australia</a> It has been ten years since Malaysia Airlines passenger flight MH370 <a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-to-learn-despite-another-report-on-missing-flight-mh370-and-still-no-explanation-100764">disappeared on March 8 2014</a>. To this day it remains one of the biggest aviation mysteries globally. It’s unthinkable that a modern Boeing 777-200ER jetliner with 239 people on board can simply vanish without any explanation. Yet multiple searches in the past decade have still not yielded the main wreckage or the bodies of the victims. At a remembrance event held earlier this week, the Malaysian transport minister announced <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysia-says-mh370-search-must-go-10-years-after-plane-vanished-2024-03-03/">a renewed push for another search</a>. If approved by the Malaysian government, the survey will be conducted by United States seabed exploration firm Ocean Infinity, whose efforts were unsuccessful in 2018. <h2>What happened to MH370?</h2> The flight was scheduled to fly from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Air traffic control lost contact with the aircraft within 60 minutes into the flight over the South China Sea. Subsequently, it was tracked by military radar crossing the Malay Peninsula and was last located by radar over the Andaman Sea in the northeastern Indian Ocean. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579774/original/file-20240305-18-vdbysn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579774/original/file-20240305-18-vdbysn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579774/original/file-20240305-18-vdbysn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579774/original/file-20240305-18-vdbysn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579774/original/file-20240305-18-vdbysn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579774/original/file-20240305-18-vdbysn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579774/original/file-20240305-18-vdbysn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579774/original/file-20240305-18-vdbysn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="A map of the region showing the initial search areas on 8-16 March." /></a><figcaption>The planned route, final route and initial search area for MH370 in Southeast Asia. <a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370#/media/File:MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg">Andrew Heenen/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> Later, automated satellite communications between the aircraft and British firm’s Inmarsat telecommunications satellite indicated that the plane ended up in the southeast Indian Ocean <a href="https://hub.arcgis.com/datasets/4c94d33cfc144f7d8b78943dee56e29b/explore">along the 7th arc</a> (an arc is a series of coordinates). This became the basis for defining the initial search areas by the Australian Air Transport Safety Bureau. Initial air searches were conducted in the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea. To date, we still don’t know what caused the aircraft’s change of course and disappearance. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579749/original/file-20240305-25-p456o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579749/original/file-20240305-25-p456o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579749/original/file-20240305-25-p456o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579749/original/file-20240305-25-p456o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579749/original/file-20240305-25-p456o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579749/original/file-20240305-25-p456o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579749/original/file-20240305-25-p456o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579749/original/file-20240305-25-p456o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Location of the 7th arc and the origin of debris locations for simulations undertaken by the University of Western Australia. Google Earth/Author provided</figcaption></figure> <h2>What have searches for MH370 found so far?</h2> On March 18 2014, ten days after the disappearance of MH370, a search in the southern Indian Ocean <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/2014/considerations-on-defining-the-search-area-mh370">was led by Australia</a>, with participation of aircraft from several countries. This search continued until April 28 and covered an area of 4,500,000 square kilometres of ocean. No debris was found. Two underwater searches of the Indian Ocean, 2,800km off the coast of Western Australia, have also failed to find any evidence of the main crash site. The initial seabed search, led by Australia, covered 120,000 square kilometres and extended 50 nautical miles across the 7th arc. It took 1,046 days and was suspended on January 17 2017. A second search by Ocean Infinity in 2018 <a href="https://oceaninfinity.com/conclusion-of-current-search-for-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh370/">covered over 112,000 square kilometres</a>. It was completed in just over three months but also didn’t locate the wreckage. <h2>What about debris?</h2> While the main crash site still hasn’t been found, several pieces of debris have washed up in the years since the flight’s disappearance. In fact, in June 2015 officials from the Australian Air Transport Safety Bureau determined that debris might arrive in Sumatra, contrary to the ocean currents in the region. The strongest current in the Indian Ocean is the South Equatorial Current. It flows east to west between northern Australia and Madagascar, and debris would be able to cross it. Indeed, on July 30 2015 a large piece of debris – a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flaperon">flaperon</a> (moving part of a plane wing) – washed up on Reunion Island in the western Indian Ocean. It was later confirmed to belong to MH370. Twelve months earlier, using an oceanographic drift model, our University of Western Australia (UWA) modelling team had predicted that any debris originating from the 7th arc would end up in the western Indian Ocean. In subsequent months, additional aircraft debris was found in the western Indian Ocean in Mauritius, Tanzania, Rodrigues, Madagascar, Mozambique and South Africa. The UWA drift analysis accurately predicted where floating debris from MH370 would beach in the western Indian Ocean. It also guided American adventurer Blaine Gibson and others to directly recover several dozen pieces of debris, three of which <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/where-blaine-gibson-now-malaysia-airlines-mh370-debris-hunter-1787369">have been confirmed</a> to be from MH370, while several others <a href="https://www.airlineratings.com/news/mh370-debris-now-for-the-facts/">are deemed likely</a>. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579756/original/file-20240305-22-q62h9n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579756/original/file-20240305-22-q62h9n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579756/original/file-20240305-22-q62h9n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579756/original/file-20240305-22-q62h9n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579756/original/file-20240305-22-q62h9n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579756/original/file-20240305-22-q62h9n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579756/original/file-20240305-22-q62h9n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579756/original/file-20240305-22-q62h9n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="A detailed satellite map showing locations of debris found on the shores of Africa and Madagascar." /></a><figcaption>Predicted locations of landfall from results of University of Western Australia drift modelling. The white dots indicate predicted landfall of the debris. The aggregation of many dots, particularly close to land, is an indication of the density of particles – higher probability of debris making landfall. These are highlighted by red circles. Charitha Pattiaratchi/UWA, Author provided</figcaption></figure> To date, these debris finds in the western Indian ocean are the only physical evidence found related to MH370. It is also independent verification that the crash occurred close to the 7th arc, as any debris would initially flow northwards and then to the west, transported by the prevailing ocean currents. These results are consistent with other drift studies undertaken by independent researchers globally. <h2>Why a new search for MH370 now?</h2> Unfortunately, the ocean is a chaotic place, and even oceanographic drift models cannot pinpoint the exact location of the crash site. The proposed new search by Ocean Infinity has significantly narrowed down the target area within latitudes 36°S and 33°S. This is approximately 50km to the south of the locations where UWA modelling indicated the release of debris along the 7th arc. If the search does not locate the wreckage, it could be extended north. Since the initial underwater searches, technology has tremendously improved. Ocean Infinity is using a fleet of autonomous underwater vehicles with improved resolution. The proposed search will also use remotely controlled surface vessels. In the area where the search is to take place, the ocean is around 4,000 metres deep. The water temperatures are 1–2°C, with low currents. This means that even after ten years, the debris field would be relatively intact. Therefore, there is a high probability that the wreckage can still be found. If a future search is successful, this would bring closure not just to the families of those who perished, but also the thousands of people who have been involved in the search efforts.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224954/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/charitha-pattiaratchi-110101">Charitha Pattiaratchi</a>, Professor of Coastal Oceanography, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067">The University of Western Australia</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mh370-disappearance-10-years-on-can-we-still-find-it-224954">original article</a>.

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Aviation expert's new theory on missing flight MH370

A noted aviation expert has said he has found the likely location of flight MH370. If he’s right it would solve the eight-year-old mystery of the whereabouts of the aircraft and its 239 passengers and crew, all of whom are presumed to have died. The findings have also reinforced a “horrifying” theory according to the senior officer in charge of the initial search of the missing plane’s final hours. Authorities are yet to be persuaded to tackle a new search mission. Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared on March the 8th, 2014 several hours after leaving Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital, bound for Beijing, China. The plane headed north-east towards China but not long after take off it abruptly changed direction in the Gulf of Thailand and headed back across the Malaysian peninsula. It then plotted a course south-west into the remote depths of the Indian Ocean. It’s thought to have crashed 2000 kilometres off the coast of Western Australia, the search for MH370 has covered 120,000 square kilometres. British aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey has conducted an examination of the anomalies in radio signals from that fateful night. He has said that’s enabled him to zero in on a new crash zone. “In my view there’s no reason why we shouldn’t be planning for a new search,” Mr Godfrey told Channel 9’s 60 Minutes on Sunday. The breakthrough discovery claim came after an analysis using Weak Signal Propagation Reporter (WSPR) technology – this is effectively an invisible radio wave similar to trip-wires that record anything disturbing or passing through the waves. However, experts have expressed serious doubts as to whether historical WSPR data can be used to track MH370. Mr Godfrey said 160 signals were disturbed over the Indian Ocean that night, disturbances likely caused by an aeroplane. Only one other aircraft was anywhere near MH370 over the ocean and Mr Godfrey said that plane was at least an hour away. That meant the disturbances were most likely caused by the Malaysian jet allowing its flight to be tracked as well as its probable final resting place. He has said he can narrow a search area down to just 300 square kilometres which could be looked at in just a few weeks. That includes some areas already searched and others that were never looked at during the initial rescue effort. “With this very difficult terrain it is possible to miss wreckage,” he said. “When you’re going through 120,000 square kilometres you get one chance, one pass of each point. With 300 square kilometres you can have several passes and from different angles, so it’s possible.” Findings put focus on pilot Mr Godfrey told 60 Minutes that his research has uncovered another aspect to the flight and its captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah. Far from heading in a straight line into the Indian Ocean, Mr Godfrey has claimed MH370 did a number of 360 degree turns over the sea – almost like holding patterns before an aircraft lands at a busy airport. That would mean the “ghost flight” theory – that the plane was on autopilot and the passengers and crew were incapacitated may not be accurate. “This is strange to me. When you’re in the remotest part of the Indian Ocean trying to lose an aircraft why would you enter a holding pattern for 20 minutes? “The captain may have been communicating with the Malaysian government, he may have been checking whether he was being followed, he may have simply wanted time to make up his mind,” said Mr Godfrey. If correct, the curious course of the Boeing 777 over the Indian Ocean gives credence to the theory that the captain deliberately flew the plane into oblivion. Peter Foley was the Australian Transport Safety Bureau’s (ATSB) director of operations for the MH370 search. Asked on the program by 60 Minutes’ reporter Sarah Abo if the most likely scenario was that the captain was behind a mass murder incident, Mr Foley said “Yes, by a wide margin. It’s horrifying”. But nonetheless, Mr Foley said some of Mr Godfrey’s conclusions needed more scrutiny. “There’s certainly merit in exploring new avenues. The ATSB described Mr Godfrey as “credible” but has not launched a new investigation. “The Australian Transport Safety Bureau has not had a formal involvement in any search for the missing aircraft MH370 since the conclusion of the first underwater search in 2017, has not recommenced a search for the aircraft, and notes that any decision to conduct further searches would be a matter for the Government of Malaysia,” ATSB Chief Commissioner Angus Mitchell said in a statement. “The ATSB does acknowledge that Mr Godfrey’s work recommends a search zone for MH370, a significant portion of which covers an area searched during the ATSB-led underwater search. “When the ATSB was made aware that Mr Godfrey’s zone incorporates an area of ocean surveyed during the ATSB-led search, out of due diligence the ATSB requested Geoscience Australia review the data it held from the search to re-validate that no items of interest were detected in that area.” “The ATSB expects that review to be finalised in coming weeks, the results from which will be made public on the ATSB’s website. “The ATSB remains an interested observer in all efforts to find the missing aircraft.” Mr Mitchell reiterated that any decision to conduct further searches for MH370 would be a matter for the Government of Malaysia. Image: news.com.au

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New theory in disappearance of flight MH370

A retired British aerospace engineer believes he has solved the mystery of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. In 2014, the plane, piloted by Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, disappeared with 239 people on board while flying from Beijing to Kuala Lumpur. No trace of the aircraft has ever been found. Talking to The Times, Richard Godfrey revealed that he’s been working on unraveling the mystery for a long time. “I’ve been plodding away for eight hours a day for seven years,” he said. “In that sort of time you can get a lot done.” In that time, he has accumulated a wealth of data on satellite communications, long-range radio signals, oceanic drift, underwater search technology, and flight simulations. Godfrey believes he has pinpointed the location of the wreckage: on the seabed 1900km west of Perth, in the complete opposite direction of where its flight path would place it. He believes the pilot had a political motive for his actions, suggesting that Zaharie was reacting to the sentencing of Malaysia’s opposition leader to five years in prison. The day before the plane took off, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was sentenced to five years in prison on sodomy charges. Godfrey believes that as a supporter of Ibrahim’s, the sentencing may have been enough to drive Zaharie to take passengers hostage. "My current view is that the captain hijacked and diverted his own plane,” he added. However, he admits that he has no evidence for these claims, describing his views as “speculation”. The key, for Godfrey, appears to be the 22-minute holding pattern which the plane entered off the coast of Sumatra. He believes that these 22 minutes were spent by the pilot attempting to negotiate Ibrahim’s release. He said, "Maybe somehow that negotiation went wrong and he ends up flying to the remotest part of the southern Indian Ocean.” The situation is made worse by the Malaysian military’s refusal to release radar date, allowing armchair theorists to attempt to fill in the gaps. Godfrey told The Times, "To me, it is clear there is still certain information being withheld, principally by the Malaysian government." It is known that Zaharie pre-planned his unusual route on a flight simulator at home, fuelling the theory that the vanishing was premeditated. Godfrey has used radio signals that act like ‘trip-wires’ to help him locate the wreckage, which he says lies 3900m below the surface of the ocean, at the base of what is known as the Broken Ridge, an underwater plateau with a volcano and ravines in the southeastern Indian Ocean. He described the tracking system known as Weak Signal Propagation Reporter (WSPR) as like having a "bunch of trip-wires that work in every direction over the horizon to the other side of the globe." Godfrey combined this new technology with satellite communications system data from the plane, explaining that, “Together the two systems can be used to detect, identify and localise MH370 during its flight path into the Southern Indian Ocean." The retired engineer says he is “very confident” he has found the missing plane. "We have quite a lot of data from the satellite, we have oceanography, drift analysis, we have the performance data from Boeing, and now this new technology," he explained. "All four align with one particular point in the Indian Ocean." Image: Adli Ghazali/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

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MH370 widow Danica Weeks' fight to find answers for missing husband

Danica Weeks will spend the fifth anniversary of her Kiwi husband’s disappearance, with their two young sons, Jack and Lincoln, still in the dark about what exactly happened in 2014. It’s been five years – and answers are still left unanswered regarding the whereabouts of the 239 passengers and crew who went missing on Malaysian Airlines' MH370 flight between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing on March 8, 2014. On the flight was the husband of Danica, 38-year-old Kiwi man Paul Weeks, heading to work at a Mongolian mine site. <img style="width: 500px; height: 281.25px;" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7824271/danika-weeks-3.jpg" alt="" data-udi="umb://media/6d15b6540bb94c938b040c34d921a1d6" /> Paul Week went missing five years ago on the MH370. Image: Channel Nine 60 Minutes Last night on Channel 9’s 60 Minutes, Danica told Sarah Abo she would push for investigators to not stop trying to figure out “why” the plane went down. “This isn’t just about 239 people on a Boeing 777, this is about eight million people every day that get on a flight: wives, husbands, family members that get on a plane,” she explained. Despite an international search effort costing an overwhelming $200 million, $60 million of which has been given by the Australian government – only a few small pieces of debris from the MH370 has been found. These small pieces are what was discovered after washing ashore in the Western Indian Ocean. Danika’s determination to find answers led her all the way to the door of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad in efforts to reopen the search for the missing plane. The episode featuring the Prime Minister is the first time he has ever spoken to a relative of one of the missing 239 before. During the interview, Dr Mahathir vowed to continue the search for the missing MH370. “We intend to continue,” he told the program. “And nowadays, with electronic detection, it may be possible for us to find where the plane had come down.” <img style="width: 500px; height: 281.25px;" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7824272/danike-weeks-2.jpg" alt="" data-udi="umb://media/0221e2a79dd8442da50b344a052ebe54" /> Danica Weeks meeting Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad to plea for the MH370 case to be reopened. Image: Channel Nine 60 Minutes Cameras took viewers behind the scenes to a “secret vault” which held the only known debris form the plane. Ms Weeks, who moved from Perth to Cooroy on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, has her own theories for what she thinks might have happened on the flight. "I've always believed the fault was with the plane, which is why I put a court case out against Boeing in the US — to prove that the Boeing 777s that are still flying are safe," she told <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-12/mh370-grief-stricken-wife-legal-action-against-boeing-crash/9324838">ABC</a> last year. Her belief then, was that the fault did not lie in the pilot’s hands like many theories assume. The speculation that has grown around Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah downing his own plane and committing mass murder has neither been confirmed nor denied by Malaysian investigators. Crisis manager, Fuad Sharuji, told 60 Minutes, he like many others also does not believe the pilot could have committed such a senseless crime. “His final words (were), ‘Goodnight MH370’. His voice was relatively calm. There was no signs of anxiety at all. There was nothing abnormal with his last words,” he told Abo when asked if there was anything peculiar about the captain’s last words. “For a person to actually take the lives of 289 passengers and crew on board, including his own life, must be a completely deranged person. “Madman, crazy. None of that is the character of Captain Zaharie.” Sharuji reveals the night the MH370 lost contact, everything went wrong. “It was on the morning of 8th of March at 2.30 in the morning when I received the first phone call that we have lost contact with MH370,” he told the program. “And I knew that there was something wrong, seriously wrong. So, we immediately activated our code red.” <img id="__mcenew" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7824273/danika-weeks1.jpg" alt="" data-udi="umb://media/003201d0ff2d489f89ae6b218b723f6f" /> Danica Weeks with her two sons, Jack, (left) and Lincoln (right). Image: Channel Nine 60 Minutes Danica has no plans to hold a memorial service for her missing husband, she told the ABC last year. “I think I would be kidding myself if I had one,” she explained. We are still without a death certificate — I don't want one — I want him to be found. “I am dealing with the emotion and the physical reality he is not here — it is really tough,” she said. “It doesn't get easier, it actually gets worse — we are getting tired, we want the answers, we have been through so many searches, such hope with no fruition, it weights down on me. “I'm lucky Paul gifted me with two beautiful boys — that keeps me going.”

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MH370 disappearance 10 years on: can we still find it

Aviation expert's new theory on missing flight MH370

New theory in disappearance of flight MH370

MH370 widow Danica Weeks' fight to find answers for missing husband