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Five tips for developing and managing your budget – even in tough economic times

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/oluwabunmi-adejumo-1370664">Oluwabunmi Adejumo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/obafemi-awolowo-university-2843">Obafemi Awolowo University</a> There’s nothing quite like a new year to prompt us to take stock of our lives, our health, our goals – and our finances. Many people will start a new year by contemplating how best to budget, plan and save. This is always a good set of aims, but it’s especially important in the inflation-prone and unpredictable economies we’re seeing <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/268225/countries-with-the-highest-inflation-rate/">all over Africa and the world</a>. Budgeting is especially key. It is the most effective method to <a href="https://www.thebalancemoney.com/how-to-make-a-budget-1289587">monitor income and expenditure</a>. <a href="https://www.uslendingcompany.com/blog/key-differences-in-writing-a-household-budget-vs-a-personal-budget/">Personal budgets</a> can help you to monitor your resources in pursuit of larger financial goals. Budgeting also offers <a href="https://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/v46/acr_vol46_2411998.pdf">more opportunities</a> to save money, reduce your debts and live a comfortable life. It can even <a href="https://prucomm.ac.uk/assets/uploads/blog/2013/04/Personal-Budgets-review-of-evidence_FINAL-REPORT.pdf">improve your mental health</a>. But where should you start? What questions do you need to answer in creating a budget? Here are some tips that I’ve learned – not just as an economist, but as a research cost analyst and someone who keeps a budget too. <h2>1. Understand the broader economic conditions</h2> It is imperative that individuals keep themselves aware and up-to-date on the realities of their country’s economic landscape. You don’t have to be a professional economist, but keep an eye on new developments like free business registration, small business development funds and printing of new money notes. What is the current exchange rate? What’s the political landscape and what international factors, like the price of crude oil, are at play? You should also watch the inflation rate and have a sense of unemployment trends. This economic awareness will prepare you to draft your own budget and you’ll have a sense of when external factors mean it’s time to revisit your plans. <h2>2. Review your income sources</h2> The ability to earn income is critical to sustaining livelihoods. Having a definite source of income is the bedrock of budgeting. Some important questions you should ask about your income – and how you might budget with it – include: <ul> <li>What is my current income?</li> <li>What do I use my income for?</li> <li>Am I able to save, given my current income?</li> <li>What proportion of my income do I save and what proportion do I spend?</li> <li>Do I have the capacity to earn more than this?</li> <li>How can I improve my income?</li> </ul> Your answers can help you to identify gaps or untapped potential. Those with irregular or unpredictable income should factor in the element of time-gap in their income, for effective budgeting. Time gap is when they are not earning income. And everyone should make allowance in their budgets for uncertainties like health issues, social engagements, inflation, unemployment, recession and price shocks. <h2>3. Appraise your expenses</h2> Expenses can be broadly categorised into “variable” and “fixed”. Fixed expenses recur within a short period: housing, food, transport, medical costs, electricity, utilities, toiletries and clothing. Variable expenses are more long-term and irregular, such as investment in property or interest-yielding assets, and the purchase of machinery. The main essence of revising our expenses is to analyse and possibly improve our spending habits. In reviewing our expenses, we can consider issues such as: <ul> <li>What is the proportion of consumption-savings ratio from my income? This is how much do I spend compared to how much I save.</li> <li>What are my regular expenses?</li> <li>What are my fixed, capital or investment expenses?</li> <li>What are my extraordinary expenses that need modification?</li> <li>Have there been emergency or extraordinary expenses?</li> </ul> A careful response to the issues raised above offers an occasion to re-evaluate the pattern and direction of our expenses. For instance, overspending, unplanned or extraordinary expenses can be identified. This can lead to an optimal, efficient reallocation of available resources. <h2>4. Stabilise your finances through savings</h2> Savings have been <a href="https://klinglercpa.com/bedrock-principles-for-saving-money/">described</a> as a financial stabiliser, given their potential to cater for urgent needs and create opportunities for investments. Of course, savings have more value when they grow faster than the rate of inflation. Inflation erodes the value of savings. For instance, an amount of 300,000 naira (US$676) saved to purchase an autorickshaw today may be impossible in two months’ time with an inflation rate of 10% when the tricycle price rises to 330,000 naira (US$744). The reverse is the case when there is deflation. Therefore, it is advisable to improve the value of savings through investments in interest-yielding assets such as stocks, shares, bonds, microfinance and production. That’s not to say it’s always easy to save. Many income earners spend as they go, not seeing savings as part of their budgets. Harsh economic realities can also make it difficult – sometimes seemingly impossible – to save. But it’s not impossible: savings can be made in small amounts, through a daily, weekly or monthly contribution to collections, cooperative schemes or microfinance affiliations. For instance, a point of sale business in Nigeria can permit a daily contribution of 500 naira (US$1.13) over 25 work days, giving an average saving of 12,500 naira (US$28.18) per month. The Point-of-Sale business started in Nigeria in 2013 when the Central Bank of Nigeria introduced the agent banking system. A POS agent operates and processes transactions through a POS service provider. Providers of such services include banks, microfinance banks and fintech companies. <h2>5. Run a flexible budget</h2> Once your budget is created, remember that it’s not set in stone. It should be flexible if anything changes in your life. For instance, an amount saved to buy a car can be invested in a promising venture buying shares through public offerings or private placements in multinational organisations like Nestle or Unilever. Also, health emergencies or career advancement programmes can require taking some money out of our savings. In all, budgeting should be flexible enough to incorporate exigencies, especially when catering for the current situation will culminate into a greater good.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195590/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/oluwabunmi-adejumo-1370664">Oluwabunmi Adejumo</a>, Lecturer/Researcher, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/obafemi-awolowo-university-2843">Obafemi Awolowo University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-tips-for-developing-and-managing-your-budget-even-in-tough-economic-times-195590">original article</a>.

Money & Banking

Is Valentine’s Day worth the romantic investment? Here’s what we can learn from economics

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/selma-wather-1510222">Selma Wather</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sussex-1218">University of Sussex</a> Expressing affection can be expensive. Spending on heart-shaped gifts, romantic cards, chocolates and flowers (other gifts are available) to celebrate Valentine’s Day has reached <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/510981/valentines-day-total-spending-great-britain/#:%7E:text=In%20the%20United%20Kingdom%20%28UK%29%20alone%2C%20Valentine%E2%80%99s%20Day,increased%20by%20just%20over%20300%20million%20British%20pounds.">close to £1 billion</a> in the UK. So the value of Valentine’s to retailers seems clear enough. But just how valuable is the annual ritual to consumers? What return can you expect for the money you invest in that bouquet of roses or candle lit meal? Broadly speaking, and depending on your relationship status, buying into Valentine’s Day traditions suggests two possible scenarios. You might be sending a card or gift to a potential partner to inform them of your interest; or you might be giving something to your current partner to remind them of your continuing love. Research suggests that both options have intrinsic economic value. For those seeking to express interest, sending a card is like dipping your toe into what economists might refer to as the “marriage market” – the search for someone you like, who likes what you have to offer in return. This search can happen smoothly, with plenty of information about your potential match, or it can be paved with obstacles, where you may not know much about who is available, and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1703310">learning about potential partners</a> takes time. So suppose you are searching for a partner, and comprehensive information about potential matches is not freely available. What do you do? One option might be to put all your hopes into meeting someone on your daily journey to work. You pray that one day, just like in the movies, you will simply bump into “the one”. A second option might be to focus your search on single work colleagues, or people you know socially, and send Valentine’s Day cards to those you are attracted to. The option with the highest chance of success is the second one. You are using reliable information – knowledge of who is single. And sending a card to them can provide them with important information about you – that you’re also single, and that you’re interested. This is why research suggests that sending a Valentine’s Day card can be a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938374?origin=crossref">logical investment</a> of time and money. <h2>‘Match quality’</h2> Fast forward five years or so and imagine you are happily married to the recipient of one of those cards. Is it worth repeating the gesture now that you’re settled down together? Economists think of marriages or partnerships as having an inherent “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2006.00385.x">match quality</a>”, which reflects how good (or bad) your relationship is – and the likelihood of you breaking up. If match quality falls below the level of happiness you might expect to have if you were to leave, a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2759255">separation may well follow</a>. But many studies also show that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2535409">match quality is malleable</a> – that it can change, for better and indeed for worse, over time. You can invest in trying to improve match quality in various ways. It might be starting a family, sharing hobbies and interests, or gestures such as cooking a special meal or exchanging gifts on the 14th day of February. Improving your match quality <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228431914_How_Does_the_Change_of_Marriage_Quality_Affect_Divorce_Decisions">directly reduces the probability</a> of a separation. Then there’s the question of commitment – the willingness to stay in a relationship rather than walking away. And again, gestures can make a difference. Imagine you have just started a new job, and your employer asks you to complete an intensive training session in your free time, for a skill that would only be useful for that particular role. If you expect to hold the job for a long period, you might happily invest your time. But if your employer is struggling financially and redundancy is on the cards, you are much less likely to agree to perform the task. Relationships work in a similar way. People are more prepared to invest in things like having children or buying a house together if they expect the relationship to last. Given that commitment is not guaranteed by a marriage certificate, people <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=950688">need to find other ways</a> to signal their continued devotion. Celebrating Valentine’s Day is one way of making such a signal. It can show faith in your shared commitment, signify that you wish to continue investing in the relationship and improve match quality, further stabilising the partnership. So even if deep down you think that Valentine’s Day has become over commercialised and meaningless, research suggests it makes good economic sense to send that card.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223128/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/selma-wather-1510222">Selma Wather</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sussex-1218">University of Sussex</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-valentines-day-worth-the-romantic-investment-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-economics-223128">original article</a>.

Money & Banking

Nobel economics prize: insights into financial contagion changed how central banks react during a crisis

This year’s <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2022/prize-announcement/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nobel prize in economics</a>, known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, has gone to Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig and former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke for their work on banks and how they relate to financial crises. To explain the work and why it matters, we talked to Elena Carletti, a Professor of Finance at Bocconi University in Milan. Why have Diamond, Bernanke and Dybvig been awarded the prize? The works by <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2022/10/popular-economicsciencesprize2022.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Diamond and Dybvig</a> essentially explained why banks exist and the role they play in the economy by channelling savings from individuals into productive investments. Essentially, banks play two roles. On the one hand, they monitor borrowers within the economy. On the other, they provide liquidity to individuals, who don’t know what they will need to buy in future, and this can make them averse to depositing money in case it’s not available when they need it. Banks smooth out this aversion by providing us with the assurance that we will be able to take out our money when it’s required. The problem is that by providing this assurance, banks are also vulnerable to crises even at times when their finances are healthy. This occurs when individual depositors worry that many other depositors are removing their money from the bank. This then gives them an incentive to remove money themselves, which can lead to a panic that causes a bank run. Ben Bernanke fed into this by looking at bank behaviour during the great depression of the 1930s, and showed that bank runs during the depression was the decisive factor in making the crisis longer and deeper than it otherwise would have been. The observations behind the Nobel win seem fairly straightforward compared to previous years. Why are they so important? It’s the idea that banks that are otherwise financially sound can nevertheless be vulnerable because of panicking depositors. Or, in cases such as during the global financial crisis of 2007-09, it can be a combination of the two, where there is a problem with a bank’s fundamentals but it is exacerbated by panic. Having recognised the intrinsic vulnerability of healthy banks, it was then possible to start thinking about policies to alleviate that risk, such as depositor insurance and reassuring everyone that the central bank will step in as the lender of last resort. In a bank run caused by liquidity (panic) rather than insolvency, an announcement from the government or central bank is likely to be enough to solve the problem on its own – often without the need for any deposit insurance even being paid out. On the other hand, in a banking crisis caused by insolvency, that’s when you need to pump in money to rescue the institution. What was the consensus about bank runs before Diamond and Dybvig began publishing their work? There had been a lot of bank runs in the past and it was understood that financial crises were linked to them – particularly before the US Federal Reserve was founded in 1913. It was understood that bank runs made financial crises longer by exacerbating them. But the mechanism causing the bank runs wasn’t well understood. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Police controlling an angry crowd during a Paris bank in 1904" /></a><figcaption>A bank run in Paris in 1904. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/paris-police-hold-back-crowd-making-242294071" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Everett Collection</a></figcaption></figure> How easy is it to tell what kind of bank run you are dealing with? It’s not always easy. For example, in 2008 in Ireland it was thought to be a classic example of bank runs caused by liquidity fears. The state stepped up to give a blanket guarantee to creditors, but it then became apparent that the banks were really insolvent and the government had to inject enormous amounts of money into them, which led to a sovereign debt crisis. Speaking of sovereign debt crises, the work by Diamond and Dybvig also underpins the literature on financial contagion, which is based on a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/262109" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2000 paper</a> by Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale. I worked with Allen and Gale for many years, and all our papers have been based on the work of Diamond, and Diamond and Dybvig. In a similar way to how state reassurances can defuse a bank run caused by liquidity problems, we saw how the then European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was able to defuse the run on government bonds in the eurozone crisis in 2011 by saying that the bank would do “<a href="https://qz.com/1038954/whatever-it-takes-five-years-ago-today-mario-draghi-saved-the-euro-with-a-momentous-speech/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whatever it takes</a>” to preserve the euro. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tB2CM2ngpQg?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> The prize announcement has attracted plenty of people on social media saying we shouldn’t be celebrating Bernanke when he was so involved in the quantitative easing (QE) that has helped to cause today’s global financial problems – what’s your view? I would say that without QE our problems would today be much worse, but also that the prize recognises his achievements as an academic and not as chair of the Fed. Also, Bernanke was only one of the numerous central bankers who resorted to QE after 2008. And it is not only the central bank actions that make banks stable. It’s also worth pointing out that the changes to the rules around the amount of capital that banks have to hold after 2008 have made the financial system much better protected against bank runs than it was beforehand. Should such rules have been introduced when the academics first explained the risks around bank runs and contagion? The literature had certainly hinted at these risks, but regulation-wise, we had to wait until after the global financial crisis to see <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/art/ecb.fsrart201405_03.en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reforms such as</a> macro-prudential regulation and more stringent micro-prudential regulation. This shows that regulators were underestimating the risk of financial crises, perhaps also pushed by the banking lobbies that had been traditionally very powerful and managed to convince regulators that risks were well managed. If retail banks become less important in future because of blockchain technology or central bank digital currencies, do you think the threat of financial panic will reduce? If we are heading for a situation where depositors put their money into central banks rather than retail banks, that would diminish the role of retail banking, but I think we are far from that. Central bank digital currencies can be designed in such a way that retail banks are still necessary. But either way, the insights from Diamond and Dybvig about liquidity panics are still relevant because they apply to any context where coordination failures among investors are important, such as sovereign debt crises, currency attacks and so on.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192208/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> Written by Elena Carletti. Republished with permission of <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobel-economics-prize-insights-into-financial-contagion-changed-how-central-banks-react-during-a-crisis-192208" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: The Nobel Foundation

Money & Banking

Ukraine war: what history tells us about the effectiveness of sanctions

The west has responded to the invasion of Ukraine by <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-sanctions-can-still-make-a-difference-but-only-if-done-right-177783">imposing economic sanctions on Russia</a>. There has been plenty of discussion about whether economic sanctions are an appropriate response, what they hope to achieve and what the results will be – not only for Russia but for the world. Economic sanctions have been used as a tool of war for centuries. In 17th- and 18th-century Europe, when warfare was widespread, economic sanctions were frequently implemented. They included prohibitions on trade, the closure of ports against belligerent enemies, and bans on trade in certain commodities. Economic exchange was affected in more indirect ways, too, by increased privateering and piracy at sea, high taxes, and conscription. The economic consequences of war were felt not only by governments, but by merchants, manufacturers, consumers and wider society, as business and daily life were thrown into chaos. When Britain and France were at war during the Nine Years’ War (1688-97) and the War of the Spanish Succession (1702-13), both sides imposed economic sanctions on the other. England entered the <a href="https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/nine-years-war">Nine Years’ War</a> by declaring war on France on May 17, 1689, in response to Europe-wide concerns that France – and its absolutist monarch Louis XIV – was growing too strong. In its declaration of war, parliament authorised officials to “arrest all ships and vessels conveying any goods or merchandise in them belonging to the French King or to his subjects and inhabitants”. When Scotland followed suit on August 6, the declaration of war forbade any Scottish subjects “to trade or correspond … with the said French king or any of his subjects”. France and Britain again found themselves on opposing sides during the <a href="https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/Spanish-succession">War of the Spanish Succession</a>, a conflict fought over the disputed succession to Spain’s vacant throne and control over that country’s vast global territories. Similar economic sanctions were imposed. In January 1701, the Scottish parliament embargoed “the importation of all French wines, Brandy and other strong waters and vinegar made in France from any place”. The potential for broader ramifications are clear – not only would this harm France, but economic consequences would be felt by any nation doing business in French produce. There were social consequences, too, for anyone who enjoyed drinking French wine. This resonates with current fears over the price of oil. As prices soar as a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52188448">direct result of the Ukraine conflict</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60666251">global bans</a> on Russian oil imports, it is feared that prices of crude oil could <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Says-Energy-Embargo-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-Over-300.html">rise as high as US$300 (£228) a barrel</a>. Just like in 1701, this economic sanction does not only harm the nation against whom it is aimed, but has consequences across the globe. <h2>Turning a blind eye</h2> But these early-modern sanctions met with mixed success. Individual merchants used a variety of tactics to circumvent them, including sailing in neutral ships or carrying falsified documents, as well as entering goods through different ports. In addition, governments on both sides of the channel were complicit in permitting activities that undermined economic sanctions. In 1692, three years into the Nine Years’ War, the Scottish privy council issued six passes for ships to travel to Bordeaux on a commercial venture. Again, in May 1693, Scots were allowed to trade with and travel to France with “express leave” of the monarch or privy council of Scotland. French admirals, too, ignored their own sanctions, granting passes for British ships to trade in La Rochelle and Bordeaux throughout the Nine Years’ War. Similar patterns emerged during the War of the Spanish Succession. The British monarch, Queen Anne, earned herself a reputation for granting passes that allowed trade with France to continue despite wartime embargoes. And in 1702 the English treasury reported that French wine was being brought over from the Spanish port of St Sebastian: “It was taken there from Bordeaux, a Spanish name given to it, and reshipped in Spanish casks”. There was also widespread bribery of port officials. In 1703, <a href="https://www.british-history.ac.uk/cal-treasury-papers/vol3/pp99-127">the English treasury noted that</a>: "This management seemed to be carried on in concert between the consuls in foreign parts and some officers in the Customs … who for private gratuities undertook for and passed such wines as were of the growth of Spain. " In 1704, in England, the House of Lords <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Wine_Trade/4QONQgAACAAJ?hl=en">undertook an enquiry</a> that found that 15 ships in Bordeaux, mostly from the West Country, had loaded French brandies and wines. The resulting report stated that the government discouraged informers and was inclined to hush the matter up rather than pursue the offenders. The stringent economic sanctions imposed during these early-modern conflicts were not consistently upheld, even as bold public statements were made about the strength of enmity. The importance of international economic relationships meant that trade had to be allowed to continue, and governments needed to reconcile their political aims with economic necessity. Early-modern economies were interdependent, so it was in nobody’s interests to destroy established trading routes, whatever the political context. We are already seeing the broader consequences of sanctions imposed on Russia, particularly in terms of the rising prices of oil and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60653856">food</a>. As the world watches Ukraine, it is worth remembering that in the past, the cost of upholding economic sanctions was often seen as too high a price to pay. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-history-tells-us-about-the-effectiveness-of-sanctions-178835" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

International Travel

The economics of ridiculously expensive art

What would possess someone to buy Leonardo da Vinci’s Salvator Mundi for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/15/arts/design/leonardo-da-vinci-salvator-mundi-christies-auction.html">US$450 million</a>? You might think it’s an investment - after all it was previously sold <a href="https://news.artnet.com/market/timeline-salvator-mundi-went-45-to-450-million-59-years-1150661">for just US$10,000</a> in 2005. From an economic point of view, art can be an investment. Although the research shows art investing has mixed results. Art also has what economists refer to as “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Price-Economics-Institute-Political/dp/0521183006">psychic benefits</a>”. It is something to be enjoyed, experienced or flaunted, and this may be the key to the high price paid for Salvator Mundi. <h2>Art as an investment</h2> As an investment, art’s performance varies wildly, depending on a number of factors. For instance, artworks associated with movements that are currently fashionable will outperform other types of art. <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/contemporary-art-1519">Contemporary art</a> is <a href="http://www.artagencypartners.com/market-analysis/impressionist-and-modern-2/">currently outperforming</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/impressionism-29990">impressionist art</a>, for example. The strong demand for contemporary art coupled with limited supply has resulted in some previously overlooked artists, such as <a href="http://www.haring.com/">Keith Haring</a>, being embraced by collectors. But it is typically the works of leading artists that are in hot demand. <a href="https://news.artnet.com/market/25-artists-account-nearly-50-percent-postwar-contemporary-auction-sales-1077026">Recent analysis</a> found that just 25 artists (including <a href="http://basquiat.com/">Jean-Michel Basquiat</a>, <a href="https://www.warhol.org/andy-warhols-life/">Andy Warhol</a> and <a href="https://www.gerhard-richter.com/en/">Gerhard Richter</a>) account for US$1.2 billion of the US$2.7 billion in worldwide art auction sales for contemporary art sold at auction this year. Only two women, <a href="http://www.artnet.com/artists/agnes-martin/">Agnes Martin</a> and <a href="http://yayoi-kusama.jp/">Yayoi Kusama</a>, made it onto the top 25 contemporary artists list. This is indicative of issues around <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gender-pay-gap-is-wider-in-the-arts-than-in-other-industries-87080">gender representation in the arts</a> and the processes by which artists careers and reputations are established. Academic studies of art as an investment have mixed results. For instance, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=563587">research</a> of the Canadian art market found that the returns are lower than investing in the stock market. However, the study identifies other benefits to having art in your portfolio, such as it being more diversified. But <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/10309610810891346">research</a> based on around 35,000 paintings by leading Australian artists show the financial returns average between 4% and 15%. Returns for paintings by leading Australian artists including <a href="http://www.australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/brett-whiteley">Brett Whiteley</a> and <a href="http://www.artnet.com/artists/jeffrey-smart/biography">Jeffrey Smart</a> exceed stock market returns. The study also found that oil and watercolour paintings, as well as those sold by certain auction houses, had higher prices. So-called “masterpieces”, such as those by Leonardo da Vinci, actually <a href="https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/american-economic-association/art-as-an-investment-and-the-underperformance-of-masterpieces-p7UeNVweF6">perform worse</a> financially than the art market as a whole. However, because art also provides benefits through consumption (prestige, decoration etc.), it is different to shares and bonds. The returns may be lower, but art is still attractive to invest in. The Australian art market reflects what has happened in the global market for contemporary art. For instance the five highest priced Australian works sold in 2017 <a href="https://www.aasd.com.au/index.cfm/annual-auction-totals/">account for almost 10%</a> of the total value of all works sold. And while the recent sale of Earth Creation 1 by the late Indigenous artist Emily Kame Kngwarreye has not attracted the attention of the Leonardo sale, its <a href="http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/arts/2017/11/17/emily-kame-kngwarreye-aboriginal-art-record-auction/">price of $A2.1 million</a> is nearly double what it sold for at auction a decade earlier. <h2>Art for consumption</h2> The aesthetic pleasure of art, a feeling of being challenged or inspired, is subjective and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444537768000040">difficult to measure</a>. But that doesn’t mean the consumption of art doesn’t add to its value. <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Beyond-Price-Economics-Institute-Political/dp/0521183006">Economists</a> use the terms “psychic returns” or “psychic benefits” to describe the benefits of consuming art. This is broken down into three main areas. One area is the satisfaction of supporting the arts and artists. This motivation is especially important for those who donate their collections to museums or otherwise support the arts. While this motivation is important it is not directly related to auction prices. Then there’s the psychic benefit comes from the “functional” (or decorative) benefits of art that is used to adorn spaces. This is generally the closest to the artists intention when they create the work in the first place. There’s also the prestige that comes from possessing art - especially as it is used to display good taste, wealth and power. For instance, entrances and foyers of offices often display large striking works of modern or contemporary art. This is what <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.99.4.1653">economists</a> call “conspicuous consumption”. As people become wealthier, their demand for high-end art increases. Indeed, art has a long tradition of being used as a statement of power, including by the church. What drives the art market, especially at the upper echelons, is a curious mix of investment and consumption, fuelled by a limited supply. The work of famous artists provides a signal of quality and assurance to the market and so their work is coveted by the rich and powerful. The uniqueness and rareness of these pieces not only spurs demand, but restricts supply, creating a perfect storm to drive prices up. Although, even this doesn’t entirely explain the high price paid for Leonardo’s Salvator Mundi. <a href="https://news.artnet.com/market/the-gray-market-salvator-mundi-sale-1117208">Analysis</a> of the sale suggests the market campaign by the auction house was significant in achieving such a high price. But aside from its trade value, art can have cultural value and social significance that do not neatly translate to market prices. So while Leonardo’s Salvator Mundisold for US$450 million, non-tradable masterpieces such as Michaelangelo’s ceiling of the Sistine Chapel aren’t worthless. They’re “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Price-Economics-Institute-Political/dp/0521183006">beyond price</a>”. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-economics-of-ridiculously-expensive-art-87668" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Art

Don’t look Up! has a surprising amount to tell us about economics, much of it useful

In the new Netflix sensation <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81252357" target="_blank">Don’t Look Up</a>, two astronomers, played by Jennifer Lawrence and Leonardo Di Caprio, discover a massive comet heading towards Earth, and desperately try to warn the US president, played by Meryl Streep. Their hope is the government will take action to avert catastrophe while there is time. Their efforts are subverted by a combination of self-serving political cynicism, billionaire business interests, a media that sees its job as respecting those interests and that cynicism, and a population conditioned not to look up. It is an obvious metaphor for the threat of climate breakdown, where warnings and pleadings from climatologists and scientists and from a growing number of campaigners, ecological economists and others, are being ignored, trivialised and sometimes even ridiculed by political insiders. But after 40 years marked by the dominance of <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/neoliberalism.asp" target="_blank">neoliberal</a> pro-market economic policies, the metaphor can be extended to almost any challenge requiring a serious response, particularly where it involves standing up to vested interests. There’s more amiss than vision and courage. Public services no longer have the capacity they did to respond to problems like long-term climate change and short-term pandemics. Their administrative and decision-making capacity has been stripped away, as has the surge capacity in health systems and in many countries the ability to react to disruptions to supply chains – all in the name of efficiency, but with the effect of creating fragility while contributing to inequality and extremism. Hayek, Friedman and Buchanan got us here Neoliberalism is rooted in the work of three Chicago School economists: Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman and James Buchanan. <a rel="noopener" href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/friedrich-hayek/" target="_blank">Hayek</a>, though a famous name, was probably the least influential of the three. He saw mixed economies, market-based but regulated by governments, as inevitable steps on the road to totalitarianism. <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/milton-friedman.asp" target="_blank">Friedman</a> espoused a naïve and outdated theory of money, which was no sooner adopted than abandoned in the early 1980s, but like Hayek saw freedom in low taxes and championed privatisation and deregulation. It was Friedman who argued that many people had to remain unemployed in order to suppress wages. <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.libertarianism.org/topics/james-m-buchanan" target="_blank">Buchanan</a>, like Friedman, argued that politicians and public servants could be trusted to act in in their own interests at a cost to society, and that almost anything that could be done by public servants could be done better by the private sector. In the 1980s the trio effectively took over the conservative side of politics in high-income countries. Their ideas also helped intimidate those on the other side, including the Hawke-Keating Labor government in Australia, and every Labor front bench that succeeded them. That influence persists to this day. Mazzucato, Kelton and Raworth want to get us out In her book <a rel="noopener" href="https://marianamazzucato.com/books/mission-economy" target="_blank">Mission Economy</a>, the University College London economist Marianna Mazzucato imagines a different relationship between the public and private sectors: a proactive, problem-solving government cooperating with the private sector to address, among other things, climate change and the problems and opportunities associated with a rapid transition to sustainability. This would require rebuilding public capacity and an approach to government experimentation and risk-taking not seen for 40 years. Aligned with her are modern monetary theorist Stephanie Kelton and ecological economist Kate Raworth. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439590/original/file-20220106-27-iufaef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439590/original/file-20220106-27-iufaef.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> Stephanie Kelton, at Adelaide university in January 2020. John Staines Kelton’s <a rel="noopener" href="https://theconversation.com/bernie-sanders-economic-adviser-has-a-message-we-might-just-need-130182" target="_blank">The Deficit Myth</a> describes how modern monetary systems work and demolishes the metaphor of the government as a household used by neoliberals to push for balanced budgets and minimalist governments. Kelton points out it is normal for governments to run deficits (Australia’s Commonwealth government <a rel="noopener" href="https://theconversation.com/memories-in-1961-labor-promised-to-boost-the-deficit-to-fight-unemployment-the-promise-won-115376" target="_blank">nearly always has</a>) and that these deficits allow the private sector to avoid building up debt. Governments that create their own currencies such as America’s or Australia’s are well-placed to guide the private sector to serve a public purpose. While both Mazzucato and Kelton discuss what this means, and give examples, it is Raworth’s book that most clearly identifies the goal governments should aspire to. That book is called <a rel="noopener" href="https://theconversation.com/stay-in-the-doughnut-not-the-hole-how-to-get-out-of-the-crisis-with-both-our-economy-and-environment-intact-151917" target="_blank">Doughnut Economics</a>. It sets out a framework for providing everyone with an opportunity to enjoy a secure, dignified and connected life, while respecting nine environmental planetary boundaries that are prerequisites for the maintenance of the planet. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374713/original/file-20201214-19-1wp3kad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374713/original/file-20201214-19-1wp3kad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> <a rel="noopener" href="https://doughnuteconomics.org/" target="_blank" class="source">doughnuteconomics.org</a> The framework requires a shift of focus away from the goal of economic growth as defined by gross domestic product towards a set of indicators of a successful society. The indicators are similar to the UN <a rel="noopener" href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals" target="_blank">sustainable development goals</a>. Both Kelton and Raworth are members of the World Health Organization’s <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.who.int/groups/who-council-on-the-economics-of-health-for-all" target="_blank">Council on the Economics of Health for All</a>, chaired by Mazzucato. Its guiding principle is that health should be seen not only as a human right but also as an investment in continued prosperity. It is an approach that would have led, among much else, to better preparations for the long-predicted pandemic. Deficit-funded spending pays dividends With Kelton and others, including leading medical researcher Steve Robson and health economist Martin Hensher, I have discussed the implications of modern monetary theory for health in an article for the Insight magazine of the <a rel="noopener" href="https://insightplus.mja.com.au/2021/21/whos-afraid-of-the-deficit-what-it-means-for-health-care/" target="_blank">Medical Journal of Australia</a>, and in a position paper for the <a rel="noopener" href="https://iht.deakin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/153/2021/06/IHT_Position_Paper.MMT_healthcareinAust_140621.pdf" target="_blank">Institute for Health Transformation</a> at Deakin University. As a nation, we should not have been worried by the prospect of health spending climbing above 10% of gross domestic product as it did in 2015-16, nor by the prospect of it climbing higher in future decades. We should be investing in resources including the skills, health infrastructure and technology we will need to deal with future pandemics and the consequences of climate change. On climate change, it is gradually dawning on people that the outcome of COP26 in Glasgow was not up to the challenge we face and that many countries will not even achieve what they committed themselves to at Glasgow. To a greater or lesser extent, every leader of a high-income country is failing to articulate a mission in regard to climate change, to drive that mission with the right public investments, and to locate the problems of climate change within the broader context of the planetary boundaries identified by Raworth – the most obvious of which is biodiversity. The attitude is “Don’t Look Up!”, we have got this. Or “technology will save us”, as President Orlean (Meryl Streep) believed in the movie. Few leaders any better than Streep <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439603/original/file-20220106-15-gnu99g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439603/original/file-20220106-15-gnu99g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> Meryl Streep as President Orlean. Tavernise/Netflix A search by Raworth’s colleagues at the University of Leeds has failed to identify any country anywhere in the world that is providing its citizens with the social foundations for a good life while remaining inside planetary boundaries. If that was to be the definition of a developed economy, none of our economies are developed. We are either not meeting the needs of our people or exceeding the carrying capacity of our planet, or (in the case of about <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-021-00799-z" target="_blank">a third</a> of countries) doing both at once. Therein lies both a warning and a challenge; a threat and an opportunity. Our mission ought to be to meet social foundations everywhere without destroying the environment of which we are a part and on which we depend. We have an opportunity to govern differently Governments, and especially monetary sovereign governments in high income countries such as Australia, will have to lead the way. They will have to throw off the neoliberalism of Friedman, Hayek and Buchanan, and the baggage which goes with it and buy into the new economics of Kelton, Raworth, Mazzucato and their colleagues. Then we can look up, with some confidence that we can deflect the metaphorical comets that threaten the lives of millions and the quality of life for us all. The resources and the technology to do what’s needed already exist. But until now we have been trapped in an outmoded way of thinking about both the role of government and the purpose of economic activity that has held us back to the point where the comet is bearing down upon us.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174399/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a rel="noopener" href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hail-1302961" target="_blank">Steven Hail</a>, Adjunct Associate Professor, <a rel="noopener" href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/torrens-university-australia-899" target="_blank">Torrens University Australia</a> This article is republished from <a rel="noopener" href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a rel="noopener" href="https://theconversation.com/dont-look-up-has-a-surprising-amount-to-tell-us-about-economics-much-of-it-useful-174399" target="_blank">original article</a>. Image: Netflix

Movies

The one percent plan: Bold strategy to reverse economic downturn

Egypt will deduct 1 per cent from resident’s salaries for 12 months, starting from July 1. The new bold measure aims to offset the major economic repercussions seen due to COVID-19. Both public and private sectors will be hit with the tax but it will only apply to those who have a net monthly salaries exceeding 2000 Egyptian pounds ($NZ206.05). A tax of 0.5 per cent will also be deducted from state pensions. The brand new measure follows as Egypt tries to deal with the economic impact of the pandemic, which has brought tourism to a grinding halt, triggered major capital flight and threatened remittances from Egyptians working overseas. Funds from the new salary tax will go towards supporting organisations and workers specifically impacted by the virus. The cabinet also said in a statement, that direct support will be offered to some citizens. Those affected economically by the outbreak may be exempted from the tax. Egypt now has over 13,400 coronavirus cases, including more than 650 deaths. On Tuesday, the country recorded its biggest rise in daily cases to date.

Money & Banking

Prince Charles meets Greta Thunberg before addressing World Economic Forum

Donald Trump might not have wanted to meet Greta Thunberg but the future King of England was thrilled to meet Time Magazine’s Person of the Year. Prince Charles, an environmental campaigner himself, looked overjoyed to meet the teen activist at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Clarence House shared two photos on their social media page, showing the pair shaking hands and beaming at the cameras. As the media gathered around them, Thunberg said to the Prince of Wales: “I guess you’re very used to this.” “Very true, it’s taken me years to get used to this,” said Charles, to which Thunberg replied: “I am still not used to this.” <blockquote style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/B7oByWLAgYf/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="12"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"></div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"></div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"></div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"></div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"></div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <a style="color: #000; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/B7oByWLAgYf/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank">The Prince of Wales meets environmental activist @GretaThunberg at @worldeconomicforum 2020. #wef</a> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;">A post shared by <a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/clarencehouse/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank"> Clarence House</a> (@clarencehouse) on Jan 22, 2020 at 6:33am PST </div> </blockquote> The photos seem to have been taken backstage before the Prince of Wales spoke to a room full of political leaders from around the world, including Trump. Prince Charles gave the keynote speech at the 50th Anniversary of the World Economic Forum and officially launched his Sustainable Markets Council. The project aims “to work towards a more inclusive, equitable and green market for all.” In his speech, the royal said: “We are in the midst of a crisis that is now, I hope, well understood. Global warming, climate change, and the devastating loss of biodiversity are the greatest threats humanity has ever faced – and one largely of our own creation. “I have dedicated much of my life to the restoration of harmony between humanity, nature and the environment, and to the encouragement of corporate social and environmental responsibility. “Quite frankly, it has been a bit of an uphill struggle. But, now, it is time to take it to the next level.”

International Travel

Honesty is the best policy? Research reveals when people are most likely to return a lost wallet

According to classic economic theory, if you find a wallet on the street and find money in the wallet, your self interest in keeping the cash is likely to override the more honest behaviour of returning the wallet. However, new research in 40 countries has found that people are more honest than they think, at least when it comes to returning money to strangers. A study of 17,000 “lost” wallets in 355 cities revealed that people are more likely to return a wallet if it had money in it than when it was empty. The study also found that if there was more money in the wallet, the more likely people were to return the wallet. The study was published in the journal <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aau8712">Science</a> said that a team of people handed in wallets that they claimed to find on the street in front of major institutions, such as banks or post offices. The wallets contained no money, or the equivalent of US$13.45 in local currency, a grocery list and three identical business cards in the local language which made it possible to return the wallet. In 38 out of 40 countries, people were more likely to return the money if it has money in it. "This is something we didn't expect," said behavioural economist Alain Cohn of the University of Michigan to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-06-21/people-are-more-likely-to-return-a-wallet-if-it-has-money-in-it/11227766">ABC.</a> Dr Cohn said that there were two factors to explain the findings. "One is altruism — where you care about the other person even though they are a stranger." The second finding is that people didn’t like to view themselves as dishonest. "They said the more money in the wallet, the more they would feel like a thief if they didn't return it," he said. "The larger the amount of money, the more worried you are about your self-image — the more difficult it is to convince yourself that you're still a good person."

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Five tips for developing and managing your budget – even in tough economic times

Is Valentine’s Day worth the romantic investment? Here’s what we can learn from economics

Nobel economics prize: insights into financial contagion changed how central banks react during a crisis

Ukraine war: what history tells us about the effectiveness of sanctions

The economics of ridiculously expensive art

Don’t look Up! has a surprising amount to tell us about economics, much of it useful

The one percent plan: Bold strategy to reverse economic downturn

Prince Charles meets Greta Thunberg before addressing World Economic Forum

Honesty is the best policy? Research reveals when people are most likely to return a lost wallet