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102-year-old woman fulfils bucket list dream of visiting Australia

A 102-year-old woman has successfully fulfilled her bucket list dream of visiting all seven continents with the help of two Youtubers. Dorothy Smith, who lives in a retirement home in San Francisco, had travelled all over the world except Australia. When the guys behind the YouTube channel Yes Theory, Staffan Taylor and Ammar Kandil heard about this, they were determined to make her dream come true. The two men, who met her in the retirement village, asked her "‘is there anything on your bucket list you haven’t ticked off yet?’ and she said, ‘I’ve been to six continents but I’ve never been to Australia,’” Yes Theory filmmaker Staffan Taylor explained. The centenarian recalled how she received a note from them. “He gave me this little piece of paper that said something about ‘dreams come true’,” Dorothy told Sunrise on Tuesday. “I showed it to a friend, and they said, ‘look, there is no signature, there is no telephone number, there is no address — it’s fake’,” she added. But it wasn't a scam and with the help of Destination NSW and Qantas, the Youtubers made her dream come true, and shared a clip of her experience online. She chose Sydney as her Aussie destination because of the Opera House, which she is twice the age of. “This is like Disneyland for grown ups,” she joked while visiting the iconic landmark. She also visited visited Wild Life Sydney Zoo to see some koalas and kangaroos, the Botanic Gardens, the Museum of Contemporary Art, and went for a cruise on the harbour. <iframe title="YouTube video player" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/38PwG3zGDDI?si=dqhuCIqOoKfokdCq" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe> She described Aussies as “charming” and complimented the food, scenery and weather. “These two gentlemen have been delightful, and there is a whole crew, and each one is as nice as the other, and they have been around this town very well,” she told Sunrise. “It’s just beautiful — I’ve seen things like the zoo and the real animals. “It is much more metropolitan (than I would have thought), and the people are charming,” she added. The centenarian said it is "never too late" for a new adventure, saying: “You can either rust out or wear out and I’m trying to wear out rather than rust out." Yes Theory co-founder Ammar Kandil who went on the trip with Dorothy and her daughter, said he was in awe of the centenarian's curiosity during the trip and had been inspired by her. “One of the cornerstones of the experiences in our videos is actually whenever we go somewhere, we always try to ask the elders and get a lot of the wisdom out of them from their life experiences,” he said. “Staffan (and I) had the opportunity to double down and do a full episode on elders, only to meet the most epic one of all (Dorothy) — it doesn’t get better. “(As soon as we heard) we just went for it, and it was a no-brainer — as soon as she said she hadn’t been to Australia, we thought God bless her soul. “She is so powerful and still moves, and if anyone can go to Australia at 102 years old, it is Dorothy.” “Even at 102 years old she is still appreciating everything she is seeing,” he added. Images: Yes Theory/ Youtube

Retirement Life

Shocking theory behind grandma's broad daylight murder-suicide

Warning: This article contains distressing content that some readers may find upsetting. Court papers have revealed the sinister reason behind why a grandmother allegedly killed her daughter-in-law before killing herself. Terminally ill ex-probation officer Kathleen Leigh, 65, fatally shot 45-year-old Marisa Galloway, who shares a child with Leigh’s son, Zachariah Reed, on a New York street before taking her own life. Now Ms Galloway’s grieving parents, Nancy and John, have filed an emergency court petition claiming Mr Reed has run off to his “multimillion-dollar home” in Chicago with their grandchild Lili under the pretext of “mourning” his mother’s death. He has also barred the Galloways from any contact, either in person or via technology, with the child. “Clearly, [Mr Reed’s] mother had a deliberate plan to kill Marisa in order to provide custody for her son,” the court papers charge, according to an exclusive report by the <a title="nypost.com" href="https://nypost.com/2024/08/18/us-news/killer-nyc-granny-carried-out-slay-suicide-to-give-son-full-custody-of-child-heartbreaking-suit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New York Post</a>. “Unfortunately, [Mr Reed] has demonstrated an absolute intention to further those same goals of his mother as he has refused to provide us with any access to Lili at all in almost 3 weeks.” According to legal papers filed on Friday, the grandparents, who live a 12 hour drive away in New Jersey, are asking a Manhattan Supreme Court judge to pass on Marisa’s parenting time, hashed out in a 2022 custody agreement with Mr Reed. They are also asking that Mr Reed be forced to live in the New York until Lili is 18 so that she can keep a close relationship with her grandparents and with her half-sister, Mariel, the 1-year-old daughter Marisa had with a sperm donor who currently lives with the grandparents. “While Marisa was always the best mother, we would love to be involved with all aspects of taking care of an infant, toddler, and ultimately the little girl that Lili currently is,” Nancy wrote. Nancy said she is “extremely uncomfortable” being forced to file the petition but worried Lili would become estranged from her mum’s side of the family if they didn’t intervene. The grandmother laid out the history of Marisa and Mr Reed’s “tumultuous relationship” since the pair split and their “contentious” custody battle while she also claimed the pair dated before Marisa became pregnant but said their relationship ended “driven by the interference of [Mr Reed’s] mother.” On the day of the heinous crime on July 26th 2024, Marisa was loading her car and had put Mariel in her seat with plans to visit her parents for a few days. She was approached by Leigh while she was putting something in the boot, and shot her once in the back of the head and again in the back before taking her own life. Before her heinous crime, Leigh scrawled a seven-page letter “For Police” describing how she felt Marisa was trying to alienate Lili from her dad and saying she suspected Marisa of abusing Lili, despite child services clearing Marisa in two probes launched by Mr Reed. “She took away the child’s mother in order to make her son happy … it’s shocking,” a law-enforcement source had told the New York Post of Leigh right after the alleged murder-suicide. Image credits: Manhattan Supreme Court

Legal

Wild conspiracy theory emerges over leaked horse cruelty video

The equestrian world continues to reel after <a href="https://www.oversixty.co.nz/finance/legal/leaked-footage-shows-olympic-star-s-horrific-animal-abuse" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a controversial video surfaced</a> showing British dressage star Charlotte Dujardin whipping a horse 24 times, described by critics as "like a circus elephant". However, the timing of the video's release, just days before the Olympics, has led to allegations of sabotage from within the British dressage community. In a statement to members, British Dressage Chief Jason Brautigam condemned Dujardin's actions as "completely unacceptable" but expressed skepticism about the motives behind the leak. "I do find claims that this was done to 'save dressage' somewhat disingenuous, given that it was timed to cause maximum damage to our sport," Brautigam wrote. He urged members to be kind to Dujardin, acknowledging the human element in the controversy. Madeline Hall, a former dressage correspondent for Horse & Hound magazine, echoed Brautigam's sentiments. Speaking to The Daily Mail, Hall remarked, "The timing of this video days before the Olympics smells of sabotage. To me, it is suspect." The video's release has led to significant fallout for Dujardin, including the loss of sponsorships and a tarnished reputation, jeopardising her chance to become Britain's most decorated female Olympian. The identity of the individual who leaked the video remains unknown, though the complainant's lawyer, Stephan Wensing from the Netherlands, has refused to comment on the matter. Wensing's involvement has fuelled speculation, given the historic rivalry between the British and Dutch equestrian teams. The Dutch team, which Dujardin defeated at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, have quickly distanced themselves from the incident. A spokesperson for the Netherlands team stated, "We regret the expulsion of our fellow athlete but also condemn the training method used by Dujardin in the video. This has no place in our equestrian sports, where the welfare of the horse comes first." As the dressage community grapples with the scandal, Brautigam reminded people of the need for a compassionate response. "Charlotte Dujardin has done the right thing by <a href="https://www.oversixty.co.nz/travel/travel-trouble/no-excuse-olympic-legend-quits-days-before-paris-games-commence" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accepting responsibility and expressing remorse</a>," he said. "While we do not condone her behaviour, we must remember that there is also a human element to this – and, regardless of what has happened, she still deserves our understanding." Dujardin, who was a favourite for a Damehood if she secured a medal in Paris, now faces an uncertain future in her sport. The dressage community continues to debate the ethical and competitive implications of the video, with calls for increased focus on the welfare of horses and the integrity of the sport. Images: Instagram / Good Morning Britain

Legal

Nostradamus prediction on King Charles sparks fresh theories

An eerie prediction on King Charles made by 16th century astrologer Nostradamus has resurfaced following the royal's cancer diagnosis. The French physician is known for his uncannily accurate predictions which he wrote in a tome called Les Propheties in 1555. Les Propheties contains 942 predictions which have been analysed over the years, and some have claimed that it foresaw major events including the Great Fire of London in 1666 , the French Revolution and even 9/11. It is also believed to have accurately predicted Queen Elizabeth's death, as in his book Nostradamus said that the second Queen Elizabeth would die in "22" at "around" the age of 96. She passed away on the 8th of September 2022 at the age of 96. The astrologer also predicted that in 2024, the royal family would face turmoil with a King “driven out by force”. “King of the Isles driven out by force ... replaced by one who will have no mark of a king,” the passage in the book read. Nostradamus expert Mario Reading initially interpreted the prophecy to refer to an “unworthy” and unpopular King who would be driven out by the wishes of the people and replaced by someone who "never expected to be King". But now, with King Charles' cancer diagnosis, many have shared their own predictions on what might happen to the royal, mainly him being forced from the throne because of his illness. Others have raised the question on who is the man they “never expected to be King”? If Charles abdicates, and Prince William declines the throne and the role of Prince Regent as he faces his own battle with Kate's cancer diagnosis, then would William’s eldest son George, 10, become king? In today's monarchy, what are the implications of a 10-year-old becoming King and would they instead consider an adult, aka the fifth in line or “spare to the heir,” Prince Harry as a better option for King? There are so many possibilities floating around. Image: Shutterstock/ Instagram

Caring

Is attachment theory actually important for romantic relationships?

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marissa-nivison-1454992">Marissa Nivison</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-calgary-1318">University of Calgary</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sheri-madigan-417151">Sheri Madigan</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-calgary-1318">University of Calgary</a> There has been a recent surge of attention toward attachment theory: from <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTL2aW9va/">TikTok videos</a> to <a href="https://quiz.attachmentproject.com/">online quizzes</a> that claim to “assess your attachment style.” It’s become a hot topic, especially in the context of romantic relationships, with <a href="https://medium.com/curious/the-theory-that-explains-all-your-failed-relationships-fb2dc2551617">some articles</a> claiming that one person (or partner’s) attachment styles are the reason why relationships fail. As experts in developmental and clinical psychology focusing on attachment theory, we seek to provide an accessible resource to better understand the science of attachment, and what it means for one’s romantic relationships. <h2>What is attachment?</h2> Attachment theory stems from the field of developmental psychology. It is the notion that in the first year of life, the ways in which a parent and caregiver respond to a child’s needs shape a child’s expectation of relationships across their lifespan. In research, attachment has been associated with well-being across the lifespan including: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954579499002035">mental</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616734.2018.1541517">physical</a> health, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0032671">brain functioning</a> and even <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=092354a82953ac321429f84b00607bcd44ac4c63">romantic relationships</a>. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/587576/original/file-20240411-16-x97xu0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/587576/original/file-20240411-16-x97xu0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587576/original/file-20240411-16-x97xu0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587576/original/file-20240411-16-x97xu0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587576/original/file-20240411-16-x97xu0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587576/original/file-20240411-16-x97xu0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587576/original/file-20240411-16-x97xu0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Illustrations of four different attachment styes" /><figcaption>There are two overarching types of attachment: secure and insecure. Types of insecure attachment include disorganized, avoidant and anxious attachment. (Shutterstock)</figcaption></figure> <h2>How is attachment related to romantic relationships?</h2> Among professionals in the field, there is diversity in perspectives regarding how attachment relates with romantic relationships. As developmental psychologists, we tend to think that attachment is associated with romantic relationships through what we call the “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14616739900134191">internal working model</a>.” In childhood, when a parent is consistent and responsive in tending to their child, the child learns that their parent can be counted on in times of need. These expectations and beliefs about relationships are then internalized as a blueprint, sometimes in popular media referred to as a “<a href="https://medium.com/live-your-life-on-purpose/love-maps-are-a-gamechanger-when-you-have-an-anxious-attachment-style-dc8f219ab0af">love map</a>.” Just like how an architect uses a blueprint to design a building, a child’s attachment to their parents provides a blueprint for understanding how to approach other relationships. Based on this blueprint, people develop expectations of how relationships should work, and how other important people in their life, including partners, should respond to their needs. Sometimes attachment is also described in terms of attachment “styles.” There are two overarching types of attachment: <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203758045">secure and insecure</a>. Those with a secure attachment style tend to have expectations that their attachment figures (and later, partners) will be responsive, sensitive and caring in times of distress. People with secure “blueprints” find it easier to build new structures (i.e., relationships) with the same design. People with insecure blueprints — such as disorganized, avoidant or anxious attachment styles — may face relationship challenges when their current relationship doesn’t align with their childhood experiences, and may need to renovate their blueprint design together with their partner. Whether you think about attachment as a style or a love map, they both are related to expectations of relationships, which are shaped by past experiences. In research we see that people who had consistent, reliable and sensitive parents are more likely to have more positive relationships — including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6811.1997.tb00135.x">friendships</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13322">teacher-child relationships</a> and yes, <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=092354a82953ac321429f84b00607bcd44ac4c63">romantic relationships too</a>. <h2>Relationships with parents and relationships with partners</h2> Although we do see in research that better childhood relationships are associated with better romantic relationships, there is still a large part of the population who have good relationships with partners, despite their history of lower-quality relationships with their parents. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/587575/original/file-20240411-16-fn5xgk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/587575/original/file-20240411-16-fn5xgk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587575/original/file-20240411-16-fn5xgk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587575/original/file-20240411-16-fn5xgk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587575/original/file-20240411-16-fn5xgk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587575/original/file-20240411-16-fn5xgk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/587575/original/file-20240411-16-fn5xgk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Illustration of loving parents with a child, and the grown child in a loving relationship" /><figcaption>In research we see that people who had consistent, reliable and sensitive parents are more likely to have more positive relationships. (Shutterstock)</figcaption></figure> It is possible for romantic relationships to serve as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.4.2.155">“healing relationship”</a> and improve one’s own internal working model of relationships. Specifically, when a partner is consistently sensitive, responsive and available, a person may begin to adjust their blueprint and develop new expectations from relationships. Attachment theory consistently supports the idea that one’s patterns of attachment <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ960225">can change</a>. So, all in all, the answer is no: Your relationship with your parents influences but does not determine the quality of your romantic relationships. <h2>Is attachment the reason why my relationships don’t work out?</h2> It is possible that your expectations of a romantic relationship may not align with the expectations of your partner, and may affect the quality of the relationship. For example, sometimes individuals with insecure attachments may withdraw when they are upset, but their partner who has a secure attachment may be upset that their partner is not coming to them for comfort. Thinking through your own attachment history and expectations of relationships may be a great opportunity for self-reflection, but it is important to remember that attachment is only one part of a relationship. Communication, trust and respect, to name a few, are also critically important aspects of a relationship. <h2>Can I improve my attachment expectations?</h2> The short answer: Yes! Improving attachment quality has been one of the cornerstones of attachment theory and research since its conception. Most commonly, attachment is targeted in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0LCPe5CMarYi1NmqNttDcg/videos">childhood through interventions</a>, but also in adulthood through individual therapy, or various forms of couples therapy, such as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaHms5z-yuM">Emotionally Focused Therapy</a> or the <a href="https://www.gottman.com/about/the-gottman-method/">Gottman Method</a>. It is also possible that through positive relationships you may be able to improve your own expectations of relationships. There are many different avenues to explore, but improvement is always possible. In sum, attachment can be an important factor in romantic relationships, but it is not a “catch-all” to be blamed for why relationships may not work out. Thinking about your own expectations for relationships and talking through those with your partner may do great things in improving the quality of your relationships! <img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226101/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marissa-nivison-1454992">Marissa Nivison</a>, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Department of Psychology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-calgary-1318">University of Calgary</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sheri-madigan-417151">Sheri Madigan</a>, Professor, Canada Research Chair in Determinants of Child Development, Owerko Centre at the Alberta Children’s Hospital Research Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-calgary-1318">University of Calgary</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-attachment-theory-actually-important-for-romantic-relationships-226101">original article</a>.

Relationships

Princess Kate's post-surgery pic ignites even wilder conspiracy theories

In a recent revelation that has the internet buzzing, Kensington Palace released a brand new photo of the Princess of Wales alongside her adorable brood, but it seems like the royal family might be playing with more than just thrones and crowns. The picture, meant to express gratitude to the public for their support during Catherine's recovery from abdominal surgery, quickly became a subject of speculation, leaving royal enthusiasts scratching their heads and raising eyebrows faster than you can say "corgi". The image, which features Catherine sitting and embracing her children – Prince Louis, Prince George and Princess Charlotte – in the scenic backdrop of Windsor, seems like a wholesome Mother's Day tribute at first glance. However, upon closer inspection, the cracks in this picture-perfect façade begin to show. Social media erupted with theories faster than a racehorse at Ascot. Some eagle-eyed observers speculated that the photo might have been the handiwork of artificial intelligence, citing suspiciously green grass and leaves in the dead of winter, a rarity even in England where the weather is as unpredictable as a teenage royal's romantic interests. "AI is that you?" asked one astute commentator on Instagram, voicing the suspicions of many. <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/C4U_IqTNaqU/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/C4U_IqTNaqU/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by The Prince and Princess of Wales (@princeandprincessofwales)</a> </div> </blockquote> "Ummmmm, this photo looks doctored…" wrote another astute reader. "Catherine’s right hand around Louis is entirely blurry but the left hand around Charlotte, at the same distance to the camera, is not, and either is Louis’ jumper around the hand blurry. Also Charlotte’s dress, which is clothing her torso behind her arm, impedes on the sleeve at the wrist… the cardigan sleeve shows the dress in front of it, when it should only be behind. And Louis’ middle finger must be awfully long to be entirely wrapped around the next finger without being able to see the finger nail… it’s also blurry. I’m a keen photographer, and those are not true elements of a photo as taken." But wait, there's more! The absence of Catherine's wedding ring did not escape the notice of keen observers, prompting questions about the state of her marriage. "WHERE'S YOUR RING??!" demanded one fan, while another pondered, "no ring, tree in full bloom in winter, jeans after major abdominal surgery, face shape completely different from car photo." And if that wasn't enough to fuel the royal gossip mill, Prince Louis's peculiar finger-crossing gesture sent conspiracy theorists into overdrive. Is he sending secret messages? Or is it just further evidence that we're all living in a simulation run by an eccentric royal fan with a knack for Photoshop? Additionally, a subtle misalignment in Princess Charlotte's hand compared to her jumper sleeve raised clear suspicions of digital manipulation. As the speculation grew louder, four of the world's largest photo agencies – The Associated Press, AFP, Getty Images and Reuters – issued a "mandatory kill notice", on the image, effectively retracting it from circulation. The reasons cited varied slightly among the agencies, with mentions of "editorial issues" and inconsistencies in the photograph's details. The decision to retract the photo wasn't taken lightly; it's a standard protocol for picture agencies to withdraw images that have been significantly altered. The reaction on social media was swift, with royal watchers and media personalities dissecting the image for clues. Chris Ship, ITV News's royal editor, shared close-up sections of the photo, highlighting apparent discrepancies in Charlotte's sleeve, Prince Louis's jumper, and the background behind him. His commentary underscored the seriousness of the situation, questioning Kensington Palace – the source of the photo – about the authenticity of the image. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> I’ve never been much of a conspiracy theorist but if <a href="https://twitter.com/AP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AP</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/AFP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AFP</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Reuters</a> & other picture agencies are concerned enough to remove it and ask clients to delete it, there are serious questions for Kensington Palace - which was the source of the photo. These appears to be the issues 👇 <a href="https://t.co/ifcSB9mUzu">https://t.co/ifcSB9mUzu</a> <a href="https://t.co/bH5gN9fJtJ">pic.twitter.com/bH5gN9fJtJ</a> — Chris Ship (@chrisshipitv) <a href="https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1766947758529822803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2024</a></blockquote> Amidst the fervent speculation, Kensington Palace remained silent, neither confirming nor denying the allegations of photo manipulation. The lack of clarity has only fuelled the fire, leading to further conjecture about the intentions behind the controversial image. In a world where every pixel is scrutinised and every detail dissected, the royal family's attempt at a heartwarming family photo has turned into a comedic saga worthy of a Shakespearean farce. As the internet continues to buzz with speculation, one thing is for certain: when it comes to the royals, truth is often stranger than fiction. Or in this case, more digitally manipulated than reality TV. Image: Instagram

Caring

Palace responds to bizarre conspiracy theories about Kate's whereabouts

Kensington Palace has spoken out after a wave of unhinged conspiracy theories flooded social media to speculate on Kate Middleton's whereabouts. It's been several days since "Where is Kate Middleton?" first started trending worldwide on social media, as concerned royal fans were quick to notice the Princess of Wales hasn't been seen in public since Christmas Day. The 42-year-old royal underwent a “planned abdominal surgery” in January, and while Kensington Palace said at the time that she would be out of action until “at least Easter”, social media users have continued to share their <a href="https://oversixty.com.au/health/caring/kate-middleton-s-disappearance-sparks-bizarre-conspiracy-theories" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bizarre theories</a> about where she is. Now, as the insane theories have gained massive traction, Kensington Palace has shared a statement to advise royal fans that the Princess is simply recovering after her operation. The Palace reiterated their original statement, writing, “We were very clear from the outset that the Princess of Wales was out until after Easter and Kensington Palace would only be providing updates when something was significant.” "That guidance stands." The Palace also added that Kate is well on the road to recovery as she is "doing well", and with all things going to plan with her health, she can be expected to be seen in public after Easter, as they originally made clear. Prince William has also spoken about his wife's recovery journey, as he met with 94-year-old Holocaust survivor Renee Salt during an emotional meeting at a synagogue in London. "I'm sure that if your wife would've been well, she would've been here," Salt told Prince William, before offering her "best wishes" to the Princess. While holding her hand, Prince William said Salt's words were "very sweet" and promised to pass on her regards to his wife. Image credits: Getty Images

Caring

Kate Middleton's "disappearance" sparks bizarre conspiracy theories

Social media is alight with wild conspiracy theories about Kate Middleton's whereabouts, after many royal fans noticed it has been several weeks since she has been seen. The last time the Princess of Wales was photographed was on Christmas Day as she attended a morning church service with her family in tow. Now, six weeks after Kate was <a href="https://oversixty.com.au/health/caring/two-senior-royals-undergo-surgery" target="_blank" rel="noopener">admitted to hospital</a> for a “planned abdominal surgery”, concerned royal fans have speculated about the state of her health, despite Kensington Palace saying they would only be providing updates when there is "significant new information to share." After the Princess was released from hospital, the Palace went on to say that she would be recovering at home and would not be returning to official royal duties until “after Easter”. However, when Prince William cancelled a royal engagement earlier this week due to a “personal matter”, many were quick to assume he was tending to his wife and her poor health. Social media users were quick to jump on this theory, only fuelling the fire of the “Where’s Kate?” question by adding in their own unhinged theories about why she has gone unseen for all of 2024 so far. Speculation on X, formerly Twitter, ranged from serious concern for Kate's wellbeing to hilarious theories, with one user writing, "I have fallen down the ‘Where is Kate Middleton’ rabbit hole and I need someone to come take me out immediately. It’s wild down here." Most were lighthearted in their claims, with one popular conspiracy being that Kate was in hiding to grow out a bad haircut, while others shared that she is simply seeking solace in a hidden corner of the Palace away from her three kids. With “Where is Kate Middleton” in the number one trending spot on X, others adding their own equally hilarious and insane theories. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> My favorite Kate Middleton theory so far is that she got bangs and is waiting for them to grow out 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭 — Taylor 🌻 (@itsmet_19) <a href="https://twitter.com/itsmet_19/status/1762651824840958230?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2024</a></blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> The Kate Middleton reveal on Masked Singer is going to make all of us look silly. — Catherine Tinker (@catherinetinker) <a href="https://twitter.com/catherinetinker/status/1762639775406731413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2024</a></blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Of all the "Where is Kate Middleton?" conspiracy theories, "she's Banksy" is my favorite — Cooper Lawrence (@CooperLawrence) <a href="https://twitter.com/CooperLawrence/status/1762674163309748417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2024</a></blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> My three kids are roughly the same age as Kate Middleton’s so I can say pretty confidently that she is hiding in the bathroom pretending to pee for a really long time. — Kristen Mulrooney (@missmulrooney) <a href="https://twitter.com/missmulrooney/status/1762840727069831673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2024</a></blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Kate Middleton’s disappearance can only mean one thing.. she’s gonna show up on Celebrity Big Brother in a few days and gag us all — Mustafa Farooq (@MustafaFar67649) <a href="https://twitter.com/MustafaFar67649/status/1762647448194052498?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2024</a></blockquote> Some believe that Kate’s operation was actually plastic surgery that has been “botched” and explains her hiding away, while others claimed she is actually elusive street artist Banksy, and is away working on a new piece, or is hauled up in a studio somewhere recording her debut album. Others shared their thoughts on who could find the Princess, with social media users nominating fictional Law & Order: SVU detective Olivia Benson for the job, while others put forward Jo Frost, also known as Super Nanny, and others believe Detectives Mulder and Scully from The X Files could crack the conspiracy. Despite all the theories, one X user summed up the conspiracy perfectly, writing,”The Kate Middleton drama is hard because I don't care about the royal family or conspiracy theories, however, I do care about being in everyone's business.” Image credits: Getty Images

Caring

Five tips for developing and managing your budget – even in tough economic times

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/oluwabunmi-adejumo-1370664">Oluwabunmi Adejumo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/obafemi-awolowo-university-2843">Obafemi Awolowo University</a> There’s nothing quite like a new year to prompt us to take stock of our lives, our health, our goals – and our finances. Many people will start a new year by contemplating how best to budget, plan and save. This is always a good set of aims, but it’s especially important in the inflation-prone and unpredictable economies we’re seeing <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/268225/countries-with-the-highest-inflation-rate/">all over Africa and the world</a>. Budgeting is especially key. It is the most effective method to <a href="https://www.thebalancemoney.com/how-to-make-a-budget-1289587">monitor income and expenditure</a>. <a href="https://www.uslendingcompany.com/blog/key-differences-in-writing-a-household-budget-vs-a-personal-budget/">Personal budgets</a> can help you to monitor your resources in pursuit of larger financial goals. Budgeting also offers <a href="https://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/v46/acr_vol46_2411998.pdf">more opportunities</a> to save money, reduce your debts and live a comfortable life. It can even <a href="https://prucomm.ac.uk/assets/uploads/blog/2013/04/Personal-Budgets-review-of-evidence_FINAL-REPORT.pdf">improve your mental health</a>. But where should you start? What questions do you need to answer in creating a budget? Here are some tips that I’ve learned – not just as an economist, but as a research cost analyst and someone who keeps a budget too. <h2>1. Understand the broader economic conditions</h2> It is imperative that individuals keep themselves aware and up-to-date on the realities of their country’s economic landscape. You don’t have to be a professional economist, but keep an eye on new developments like free business registration, small business development funds and printing of new money notes. What is the current exchange rate? What’s the political landscape and what international factors, like the price of crude oil, are at play? You should also watch the inflation rate and have a sense of unemployment trends. This economic awareness will prepare you to draft your own budget and you’ll have a sense of when external factors mean it’s time to revisit your plans. <h2>2. Review your income sources</h2> The ability to earn income is critical to sustaining livelihoods. Having a definite source of income is the bedrock of budgeting. Some important questions you should ask about your income – and how you might budget with it – include: <ul> <li>What is my current income?</li> <li>What do I use my income for?</li> <li>Am I able to save, given my current income?</li> <li>What proportion of my income do I save and what proportion do I spend?</li> <li>Do I have the capacity to earn more than this?</li> <li>How can I improve my income?</li> </ul> Your answers can help you to identify gaps or untapped potential. Those with irregular or unpredictable income should factor in the element of time-gap in their income, for effective budgeting. Time gap is when they are not earning income. And everyone should make allowance in their budgets for uncertainties like health issues, social engagements, inflation, unemployment, recession and price shocks. <h2>3. Appraise your expenses</h2> Expenses can be broadly categorised into “variable” and “fixed”. Fixed expenses recur within a short period: housing, food, transport, medical costs, electricity, utilities, toiletries and clothing. Variable expenses are more long-term and irregular, such as investment in property or interest-yielding assets, and the purchase of machinery. The main essence of revising our expenses is to analyse and possibly improve our spending habits. In reviewing our expenses, we can consider issues such as: <ul> <li>What is the proportion of consumption-savings ratio from my income? This is how much do I spend compared to how much I save.</li> <li>What are my regular expenses?</li> <li>What are my fixed, capital or investment expenses?</li> <li>What are my extraordinary expenses that need modification?</li> <li>Have there been emergency or extraordinary expenses?</li> </ul> A careful response to the issues raised above offers an occasion to re-evaluate the pattern and direction of our expenses. For instance, overspending, unplanned or extraordinary expenses can be identified. This can lead to an optimal, efficient reallocation of available resources. <h2>4. Stabilise your finances through savings</h2> Savings have been <a href="https://klinglercpa.com/bedrock-principles-for-saving-money/">described</a> as a financial stabiliser, given their potential to cater for urgent needs and create opportunities for investments. Of course, savings have more value when they grow faster than the rate of inflation. Inflation erodes the value of savings. For instance, an amount of 300,000 naira (US$676) saved to purchase an autorickshaw today may be impossible in two months’ time with an inflation rate of 10% when the tricycle price rises to 330,000 naira (US$744). The reverse is the case when there is deflation. Therefore, it is advisable to improve the value of savings through investments in interest-yielding assets such as stocks, shares, bonds, microfinance and production. That’s not to say it’s always easy to save. Many income earners spend as they go, not seeing savings as part of their budgets. Harsh economic realities can also make it difficult – sometimes seemingly impossible – to save. But it’s not impossible: savings can be made in small amounts, through a daily, weekly or monthly contribution to collections, cooperative schemes or microfinance affiliations. For instance, a point of sale business in Nigeria can permit a daily contribution of 500 naira (US$1.13) over 25 work days, giving an average saving of 12,500 naira (US$28.18) per month. The Point-of-Sale business started in Nigeria in 2013 when the Central Bank of Nigeria introduced the agent banking system. A POS agent operates and processes transactions through a POS service provider. Providers of such services include banks, microfinance banks and fintech companies. <h2>5. Run a flexible budget</h2> Once your budget is created, remember that it’s not set in stone. It should be flexible if anything changes in your life. For instance, an amount saved to buy a car can be invested in a promising venture buying shares through public offerings or private placements in multinational organisations like Nestle or Unilever. Also, health emergencies or career advancement programmes can require taking some money out of our savings. In all, budgeting should be flexible enough to incorporate exigencies, especially when catering for the current situation will culminate into a greater good.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195590/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/oluwabunmi-adejumo-1370664">Oluwabunmi Adejumo</a>, Lecturer/Researcher, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/obafemi-awolowo-university-2843">Obafemi Awolowo University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-tips-for-developing-and-managing-your-budget-even-in-tough-economic-times-195590">original article</a>.

Money & Banking

Out of the rabbit hole: new research shows people can change their minds about conspiracy theories

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matt-williams-666794">Matt Williams</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/massey-university-806">Massey University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-kerr-1073102">John Kerr</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-otago-1304">University of Otago</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mathew-marques-14884">Mathew Marques</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/la-trobe-university-842">La Trobe University</a> Many people <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-phar-lap-killed-by-gangsters-new-research-shows-which-conspiracies-people-believe-in-and-why-158610">believe at least one</a> conspiracy theory. And that isn’t necessarily a bad thing – conspiracies do happen. To take just one example, the CIA really did engage in <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/13/cia-mind-control-1266649">illegal experiments</a> in the 1950s to identify drugs and procedures that might produce confessions from captured spies. However, many conspiracy theories are not supported by evidence, yet still attract believers. For example, in a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12746">previous study</a>, we found about 7% of New Zealanders and Australians agreed with the theory that <a href="https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/sensing-our-planet/on-the-trail-of-contrails">visible trails behind aircraft</a> are “chemtrails” of chemical agents sprayed as part of a secret government program. That’s despite the theory being <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084011">roundly rejected</a> by the scientific community. The fact that conspiracy theories attract believers despite a lack of credible evidence remains a puzzle for researchers in psychology and other academic disciplines. Indeed, there has been a great deal of research on conspiracy theories published in the past few years. We now know more about how many people believe them, as well as the psychological and political factors that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-25617-0">correlate with that belief</a>. But we know much less about how often people change their minds. Do they do so frequently, or do they to stick tenaciously to their beliefs, regardless of what evidence they come across? <h2>From 9/11 to COVID</h2> We set out to answer this question using a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-51653-z">longitudinal survey</a>. We recruited 498 Australians and New Zealanders (using the <a href="http://prolific.com">Prolific</a> website, which recruits people to take part in paid research). Each month from March to September 2021, we presented our sample group with a survey, including ten conspiracy theories, and asked them how much they agreed with each one. All of these theories related to claims about events that are either ongoing, or occurred this millennium: the September 11 attacks, the rollout of 5G telecommunications technology, and COVID-19, among others. While there were definitely some believers in our sample, most participants disagreed with each of the theories. The most popular theory was that “pharmaceutical companies (‘Big Pharma’) have suppressed a cure for cancer to protect their profits”. Some 18% of the sample group agreed when first asked. The least popular was the theory that “COVID-19 ‘vaccines’ contain microchips to monitor and control people”. Only 2% agreed. <h2>Conspiracy beliefs probably aren’t increasing</h2> Despite contemporary concerns about a “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7320252/">pandemic of misinformation</a>” or “<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30461-X/fulltext">infodemic</a>”, we found no evidence that individual beliefs in conspiracy theories increased on average over time. This was despite our data collection happening during the tumultuous second year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns were still happening occasionally in both <a href="https://www.timeout.com/melbourne/things-to-do/a-timeline-of-covid-19-in-australia-two-years-on">Australia</a> and <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/about-our-covid-19-response/history-of-the-covid-19-alert-system/">New Zealand</a>, and anti-government sentiment was building. While we only tracked participants for six months, <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0270429">other studies</a> over much longer time frames have also found little evidence that beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing over time. <hr /> <iframe class="flourish-embed-iframe" style="width: 100%; height: 600px;" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16665395/embed" width="100%" height="400" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe> <div style="width: 100%!; margin-top: 4px!important; text-align: right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/16665395/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/16665395" target="_top"><img src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg" alt="Made with Flourish" /></a></div> <hr /> Finally, we found that beliefs (or non-beliefs) in conspiracy theories were stable – but not completely fixed. For any given theory, the vast majority of participants were “consistent sceptics” – not agreeing with the theory at any point. There were also some “consistent believers” who agreed at every point in the survey they responded to. For most theories, this was the second-largest group. Yet for every conspiracy theory, there was also a small proportion of converts. They disagreed with the theory at the start of the study, but agreed with it by the end. There was also a small proportion of “apostates” who agreed with the theory at the start, but disagreed by the end. Nevertheless, the percentages of converts and apostates tended to balance each other pretty closely, leaving the percentage of believers fairly stable over time. <h2>Inside the ‘rabbit hole’</h2> This relative stability is interesting, because <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2564659">one criticism</a> of conspiracy theories is that they may not be “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/criterion-of-falsifiability">falsifiable</a>”: what seems like evidence against a conspiracy theory can just be written off by believers as part of the cover up. Yet people clearly do sometimes decide to reject conspiracy theories they previously believed. Our findings bring into question the popular notion of the “rabbit hole” – that people rapidly develop beliefs in a succession of conspiracy theories, much as Alice tumbles down into Wonderland in Lewis Carroll’s <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/11">famous story</a>. While it’s possible this does happen for a small number of people, our results suggest it isn’t a typical experience. For most, the <a href="https://www.latrobe.edu.au/news/articles/2023/opinion/how-to-talk-to-someone-about-conspiracy-theories">journey into</a> conspiracy theory belief might involve a more gradual slope – a bit like a <a href="https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1985.tb05649.x">real rabbit burrow</a>, from which one can also emerge. <hr /> Mathew Ling (<a href="https://www.neaminational.org.au/">Neami National</a>), Stephen Hill (Massey University) and Edward Clarke (Philipps-Universität Marburg) contributed to the research referred to in this article.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222507/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <hr /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matt-williams-666794">Matt Williams</a>, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/massey-university-806">Massey University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-kerr-1073102">John Kerr</a>, Senior Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-otago-1304">University of Otago</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mathew-marques-14884">Mathew Marques</a>, Senior Lecturer in Social Psychology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/la-trobe-university-842">La Trobe University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/out-of-the-rabbit-hole-new-research-shows-people-can-change-their-minds-about-conspiracy-theories-222507">original article</a>.

Mind

Is Valentine’s Day worth the romantic investment? Here’s what we can learn from economics

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/selma-wather-1510222">Selma Wather</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sussex-1218">University of Sussex</a> Expressing affection can be expensive. Spending on heart-shaped gifts, romantic cards, chocolates and flowers (other gifts are available) to celebrate Valentine’s Day has reached <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/510981/valentines-day-total-spending-great-britain/#:%7E:text=In%20the%20United%20Kingdom%20%28UK%29%20alone%2C%20Valentine%E2%80%99s%20Day,increased%20by%20just%20over%20300%20million%20British%20pounds.">close to £1 billion</a> in the UK. So the value of Valentine’s to retailers seems clear enough. But just how valuable is the annual ritual to consumers? What return can you expect for the money you invest in that bouquet of roses or candle lit meal? Broadly speaking, and depending on your relationship status, buying into Valentine’s Day traditions suggests two possible scenarios. You might be sending a card or gift to a potential partner to inform them of your interest; or you might be giving something to your current partner to remind them of your continuing love. Research suggests that both options have intrinsic economic value. For those seeking to express interest, sending a card is like dipping your toe into what economists might refer to as the “marriage market” – the search for someone you like, who likes what you have to offer in return. This search can happen smoothly, with plenty of information about your potential match, or it can be paved with obstacles, where you may not know much about who is available, and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1703310">learning about potential partners</a> takes time. So suppose you are searching for a partner, and comprehensive information about potential matches is not freely available. What do you do? One option might be to put all your hopes into meeting someone on your daily journey to work. You pray that one day, just like in the movies, you will simply bump into “the one”. A second option might be to focus your search on single work colleagues, or people you know socially, and send Valentine’s Day cards to those you are attracted to. The option with the highest chance of success is the second one. You are using reliable information – knowledge of who is single. And sending a card to them can provide them with important information about you – that you’re also single, and that you’re interested. This is why research suggests that sending a Valentine’s Day card can be a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938374?origin=crossref">logical investment</a> of time and money. <h2>‘Match quality’</h2> Fast forward five years or so and imagine you are happily married to the recipient of one of those cards. Is it worth repeating the gesture now that you’re settled down together? Economists think of marriages or partnerships as having an inherent “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2006.00385.x">match quality</a>”, which reflects how good (or bad) your relationship is – and the likelihood of you breaking up. If match quality falls below the level of happiness you might expect to have if you were to leave, a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2759255">separation may well follow</a>. But many studies also show that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2535409">match quality is malleable</a> – that it can change, for better and indeed for worse, over time. You can invest in trying to improve match quality in various ways. It might be starting a family, sharing hobbies and interests, or gestures such as cooking a special meal or exchanging gifts on the 14th day of February. Improving your match quality <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228431914_How_Does_the_Change_of_Marriage_Quality_Affect_Divorce_Decisions">directly reduces the probability</a> of a separation. Then there’s the question of commitment – the willingness to stay in a relationship rather than walking away. And again, gestures can make a difference. Imagine you have just started a new job, and your employer asks you to complete an intensive training session in your free time, for a skill that would only be useful for that particular role. If you expect to hold the job for a long period, you might happily invest your time. But if your employer is struggling financially and redundancy is on the cards, you are much less likely to agree to perform the task. Relationships work in a similar way. People are more prepared to invest in things like having children or buying a house together if they expect the relationship to last. Given that commitment is not guaranteed by a marriage certificate, people <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=950688">need to find other ways</a> to signal their continued devotion. Celebrating Valentine’s Day is one way of making such a signal. It can show faith in your shared commitment, signify that you wish to continue investing in the relationship and improve match quality, further stabilising the partnership. So even if deep down you think that Valentine’s Day has become over commercialised and meaningless, research suggests it makes good economic sense to send that card.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223128/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/selma-wather-1510222">Selma Wather</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sussex-1218">University of Sussex</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-valentines-day-worth-the-romantic-investment-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-economics-223128">original article</a>.

Money & Banking

Big Bang Theory star reveals two major family announcements

Johnny Galecki has dropped two huge announcements in his latest interview - he secretly married partner Morgan Galecki and they have welcomed their first child together. The Big Bang Theory star, 48, confirmed the news to Architectural Digest, as he was giving them a tour of his gothic-style Tennessee mansion. According to the publication, Morgan was pregnant at the time of the photoshoot, despite her bump not being quite obvious in photos. The pair welcomed their daughter, Oona Evelena, shortly after. Oona is the pair's first child together, but the actor also shares son Orbison, four, with his ex Alaina Meyer. It remains unclear how long the pair have been dating, but he reportedly split from ex Meyer in November 2020. The actor shared a few photos from the shoot on Instagram, and said he would treasure the piece on their family home. "We will place it in our family time capsule and cherish it for many, many years," he wrote in the caption. <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/C3D4tgXPt35/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/C3D4tgXPt35/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Johnny Galecki (@sanctionedjohnnygalecki)</a> </div> </blockquote> Galecki also opened up on why he decided to move to Tennessee after living in Los Angeles for 30 years. "I never felt like much of an Angeleno," he told Architectural Digest. "And I did try. I say that with sadness, not with snobbery. Thirty years is just a very long time to live in a city that you're not all that comfortable in." Images: Instagram

Family & Pets

Big Bang Theory star's shock cancer diagnosis

Big Bang Theory star Kate Micucci has revealed that she has lung cancer, in a shocking update on social media. The 43-year-old actress, known for her role as Lucy on the iconic show, shared a video from a hospital bed with the caption: “An update on what I’ve been up to," and the hashtags #imokay #solucky and #sendinglove. She revealed that she was recovering from surgery, and how they managed to detect the tumour early on. “Um, I’m in the hospital, but it’s because I had lung cancer surgery yesterday,” she began in the video. “They caught it really early. It’s really weird, because I’ve never smoked a cigarette in my life so uh, you know, it was a surprise. “But I guess, also, it happens and so the greatest news is they caught it early, they got it out, I’m all good," she said, giving a thumbs up to the camera. “It’s been a little bit of a trip and, probably be moving slow for a few weeks but then I’ll be back at it,” she said, adding that she can't wait to do some painting. “Why am I still talking ... ‘cause I’m on drugs!” she playfully said. The actress was still in good spirits despite the diagnosis and surgery, as she also shared a few clips of her walking down the hospital corridor in her gown, and wheeling her IV drip while saying “Woohoo!” “I gotta say the artwork here is pretty nice, yeah yeah,” she said, and ended the video with a picture of her in the hospital bed holding up banana in one hand and a packet of Frosted Flakes cereal in the other. Fans flocked to comments to send their well-wishes, with a few others saying they were glad she detected the cancer early on “Sending love and healing!” one fan wrote. “I’m happy for early detection!!! Heal well,” another said. “Glad they caught it early. Get lots of rest and be gentle on yourself,” a third commented. Images: Instagram/ Getty

Caring

New theory in Hugh Jackman and Deborra-Lee Furness split

News of <a href="https://www.oversixty.co.nz/lifestyle/relationships/hugh-jackman-devastated-after-marriage-split" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hugh Jackman and Deborah-Lee Furness’ split</a> after 27 years of marriage shocked the world, and now celebrity experts are sharing their theories. US broadcaster Cooper Lawrence shared her theory in an interview with Sunrise hosts Natalie Barr and Matt Shirvington on Monday morning. Lawrence claimed that the couple were waiting for their two adopted children Oscar, 23, and Ava, 18, to grow old enough before they had an amicable split. “I think [Jackman and Furness] were waiting until the kids were old enough that they could have an amicable split and not worry about child custody or how much everybody is going to pay each other,” she told the Sunrise hosts. She added that child custody battles are what make high-profile divorces “messy”, which could explain the timing of the divorce. “They don’t have to worry about that because the kids are older, so now they can just split their multi-millions and all their properties, which is a lot.” The couple have properties in New York, Sydney and The Hamptons. Lawrence added that the rumour mill began spinning on “the Broadway scene” sometime last year after the couple sold their <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/property/real-estate/hugh-jackman-s-nyc-triplex-attracts-big-looks-and-bigger-bucks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three-storey New York apartment</a>. “For a while on the Broadway scene there was a rumour there might be something going on in that marriage and people were like, ‘This is kind of odd,’ but as soon as they sold their three-floor apartment... and downsized and then shipped a bunch of furniture home to Sydney, it was like ‘What’s really going on here?’” she said. She added that while celebrity splits are nothing new, some fans have taken it harder than others because some celebrities make them believe in true love. “Every time there was a think piece about Hollywood couples that made us believe in love, (Jackman and Furness) were always at the top of the list,” Lawrence explained. “They are always talking about each other and they were the ‘it couple’ for anybody that’s a little older than their younger spouse. “They were role models for everything in relationships.” Fans aren't the only ones devastated by the divorce. The Wolverine actor <a href="https://www.oversixty.co.nz/lifestyle/relationships/hugh-jackman-devastated-after-marriage-split" target="_blank" rel="noopener">broke his silence</a> the day after their separation statement went public, and shared that it was "a difficult time.' Image: Getty/Kevin Mazur/WireImage

Family & Pets

New Maddie McCann theory has "electrified" investigators

An important witness in the Madeleine McCann case has shared a valuable piece of information which has has "electrified" investigators, as the search for the missing child continues. The witness claims that Christian Brueckner, the prime suspect in Maddie's disappearance, had a burglary tool kit that could unlock any security door, and boasted to friends about his lock picking skills. This new theory has raised fresh doubts over the official theory that Maddie’s kidnapper clambered in through a window of holiday apartment 5a in Praia da Luz when she was abducted. German police are said to be “electrified” by discovery, and are also probing the possibility that Christian B used car paint solvent to sedate Maddie. In an exclusive interview from a secret location, Helge B – now in German police witness protection – told filmmaker Jutta Rabe for <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22893975/madeleine-mccann-suspect-christian-b-lock-pick-kit/">The Sun on Sunday,</a> “He came through the door”. Helge B, 52, who met his fellow German a year before Maddie vanished aged three, said he found the kit at Christian B’s Algarve home. The petty criminal had decided to ransack it with another friend after learning Christian B was serving time for theft. He said, “I knew from Christian that he uses tools to break into holiday resorts, hotels and holiday homes to steal from tourists." “There were passports on the table. There was all sorts of stuff lying around – cameras, suitcases, everything that tourists have with them. I also found a lock pick set.” Helge B, who kept the kit and told German police about it, added, “You can use it to pick any lock, including security locks.” Despite police long believing Maddie's abductor had snuck in through the window, when asked how Christian B might've entered the hotel room, Helge simply said, “Through the door. Easily. He can open any door”. Upon the discovery of the new evidence, a police source said, “The German detectives were electrified by the discovery of the tool kit with the lock picks in it. This evidence is now very important to them." “It confirmed a suspicion that they’d had for a long time – that Christian B entered the apartment through the door.” German prosecutors hope to use the lock picks evidence to nail Christian B, who is in jail for drugs crimes and appealing a seven-year sentence for raping a woman of 72. Image credits: Getty Images

Legal

Is Eurovision finally cool? That depends on your definition – ‘cool theory’ expert explain

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/vanessa-brown-142590">Vanessa Brown</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/nottingham-trent-university-1338">Nottingham Trent University</a> With an aesthetic dependent on novelty and spectacle, and a structure that’s both disjointed and drawn-out, Eurovision – for some – cannot fail to fail. In its “failed seriousness” (the phrase writer Susan Sontag <a href="https://www.artandobject.com/news/what-camp-met-tries-define-ineffable">used to describe “camp”</a>), the song contest has all the exaggerated expressiveness that audiences associate with kitsch. So, how could it possibly be cool? I’m interested in viewing the show through the lens of <a href="https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/45239/1/1507168_Brown.pdf">cool theory</a> (which identifies different kinds of cool and breaks those down into core qualities). “Coolness” itself is a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14797585.2021.2000837">slippery and controversial term</a> that can mean almost opposing things. For some, “cool” is simply what is fashionable. It can also be a rebellion against what is fashionable. Or an anti-social attitude in which nothing and no one else matters beyond your own stylish persona. Indeed Sam Ryder – the UK’s near-win Eurovision act of 2022 whose high energy performance combined epic, earnest vocals with flowing natural locks, pearly teeth and a bejewelled one-piece – told the Guardian in 2022 that cool is “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/may/19/cool-is-the-enemy-eurovision-hero-sam-ryder-on-how-he-ditched-his-ego-and-found-his-joy">the enemy</a>”. The profile of Ryder claimed he had no interest in the “detached rock star” exterior. This refers to the sense of unwillingness of “cool” musicians to have their dignity compromised by other people’s rules – an unwillingness to be caught making an effort. But Eurovision is all about effort. A publicised drama of rehearsals and heats, nervous waving and nail biting in the green room – the performers are just generally far too eager. Because whether it’s death metal or pared back electronica, being liked is what these musicians are here for. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RZ0hqX_92zI?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Sam Ryder’s 2022 Eurovision performance.</figcaption></figure> On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine the uber-cool 1960s <a href="https://www.loudersound.com/features/krautrock-communism-and-chaos-the-anarchic-story-of-can">krautrock band Can</a> giving two hoots what a jury in Brussels would make of their genre-defining understated rock. Nor the jazz men Miles Davis, Charlie Parker or Lester Young, who set the parameters of cool performance with their sharp, formal attire and <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/cool-shades-9780857854643/">refusal to acknowledge the audience</a>. <h2>What kind of ‘cool’ is Eurovision?</h2> Although the performers of Eurovision aren’t detached, the audience can be. Sociologist Janna Michael’s <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1469540513493206?journalCode=joca">2015 study</a> of European urban hipsters revealed that the point of cool is not what is liked, so much as how it is liked. This goes some way to explaining Eurovision’s appeal. Since the 1980s, Eurovision has been presented (certainly in Britain) as something to enjoy in a specifically detached way, through irony. From 1973 to 2008, former commentator Terry Wogan’s flippant narration allowed the audience to collude in a knowing superiority over the event, finding its failed seriousness funny. The cult following of Eurovision among those with a camp sensibility was further endorsed by the appointment of comedian Graham Norton as Wogan’s more obviously camp successor. Do these fans love Eurovision because they enjoy the catharsis of the unabashed release of “bad taste”? Or because they enjoy feeling superior to those people (and nations) who genuinely engage with the drama of the competition? This is a side of <a href="https://www.abebooks.co.uk/9780719066153/Kitsch-Cultural-Politics-Taste-Ruth-0719066158/plp">cool’s ironic detachment that celebrates disdain for others</a>. However, many British fans now speak enthusiastically about the tolerance and openness of Eurovision. As <a href="https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/showbiz-news/eurovisions-rylan-clark-blown-away-26873868">host Rylan Clark said this year</a>: “Everyone is welcome.” In recent years Eurovision has become more obviously and consciously open to gender diversity and aligned to LGBTQ+ tastes. This was crystallised by bearded Austrian drag queen Conchita’s winning performance in 2014. The <a href="https://metro.co.uk/2023/05/11/eurovision-alesha-dixon-and-hannah-waddingham-turned-into-drag-queens-18770837/">drag makeovers given to all three semi-final hosts this year</a> confirmed the contest’s status as a space which endorses self-creation, individuality and tolerance – all aspects of the cool attitude. <h2>Becoming mainstream</h2> In the past, scholars of the theory of coolness have often focused too heavily on men and masculine, emotionally blank forms of “cool”, with composure and self-possession at their heart. Though this brand of cool is eloquently expressed in jazz, it is also visible in the consummate performer of drag. Thanks to the popularity of shows such as RuPaul’s Drag Race, drag – once enjoyed purely in LGBTQ+ subcultures – is now mainstream entertainment. This is perhaps one reason Eurovision has suddenly become perceived as “cool” <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120607180110.htm">by some</a>. But experiences of exclusion and marginalisation have historically been the conditions in which modern cool has been forged. The very fact that Eurovision has been viewed for decades as a cultural white elephant, a place of almost inconsequential melodrama, gives it the potential to be resurrected as cool. Liking Eurovision was once an anti-mainstream position. This gave the show the potential to become “cool”, through both its exaggeration of qualities seen as undesirable by dominant social tastes, and its willingness to push the boundaries of convention, despite the detractors. The concept of cool is complicated – and it is changing. Indeed, <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120607180110.htm">some recent studies</a> have shown that perception of coolness is connected to activism and pro-social traits. Eurovision may seem like sparkly fluff, but perhaps now more than ever, it is also a vehicle for promoting greater acceptance of other ways of life. It’s all cool.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205600/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/vanessa-brown-142590">Vanessa Brown</a>, Course Leader MA Culture, Style and Fashion, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/nottingham-trent-university-1338">Nottingham Trent University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-eurovision-finally-cool-that-depends-on-your-definition-cool-theory-expert-explains-205600">original article</a>.

Music

Nobel economics prize: insights into financial contagion changed how central banks react during a crisis

This year’s <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2022/prize-announcement/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nobel prize in economics</a>, known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, has gone to Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig and former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke for their work on banks and how they relate to financial crises. To explain the work and why it matters, we talked to Elena Carletti, a Professor of Finance at Bocconi University in Milan. Why have Diamond, Bernanke and Dybvig been awarded the prize? The works by <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2022/10/popular-economicsciencesprize2022.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Diamond and Dybvig</a> essentially explained why banks exist and the role they play in the economy by channelling savings from individuals into productive investments. Essentially, banks play two roles. On the one hand, they monitor borrowers within the economy. On the other, they provide liquidity to individuals, who don’t know what they will need to buy in future, and this can make them averse to depositing money in case it’s not available when they need it. Banks smooth out this aversion by providing us with the assurance that we will be able to take out our money when it’s required. The problem is that by providing this assurance, banks are also vulnerable to crises even at times when their finances are healthy. This occurs when individual depositors worry that many other depositors are removing their money from the bank. This then gives them an incentive to remove money themselves, which can lead to a panic that causes a bank run. Ben Bernanke fed into this by looking at bank behaviour during the great depression of the 1930s, and showed that bank runs during the depression was the decisive factor in making the crisis longer and deeper than it otherwise would have been. The observations behind the Nobel win seem fairly straightforward compared to previous years. Why are they so important? It’s the idea that banks that are otherwise financially sound can nevertheless be vulnerable because of panicking depositors. Or, in cases such as during the global financial crisis of 2007-09, it can be a combination of the two, where there is a problem with a bank’s fundamentals but it is exacerbated by panic. Having recognised the intrinsic vulnerability of healthy banks, it was then possible to start thinking about policies to alleviate that risk, such as depositor insurance and reassuring everyone that the central bank will step in as the lender of last resort. In a bank run caused by liquidity (panic) rather than insolvency, an announcement from the government or central bank is likely to be enough to solve the problem on its own – often without the need for any deposit insurance even being paid out. On the other hand, in a banking crisis caused by insolvency, that’s when you need to pump in money to rescue the institution. What was the consensus about bank runs before Diamond and Dybvig began publishing their work? There had been a lot of bank runs in the past and it was understood that financial crises were linked to them – particularly before the US Federal Reserve was founded in 1913. It was understood that bank runs made financial crises longer by exacerbating them. But the mechanism causing the bank runs wasn’t well understood. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489027/original/file-20221010-11-on0vn4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Police controlling an angry crowd during a Paris bank in 1904" /></a><figcaption>A bank run in Paris in 1904. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/paris-police-hold-back-crowd-making-242294071" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Everett Collection</a></figcaption></figure> How easy is it to tell what kind of bank run you are dealing with? It’s not always easy. For example, in 2008 in Ireland it was thought to be a classic example of bank runs caused by liquidity fears. The state stepped up to give a blanket guarantee to creditors, but it then became apparent that the banks were really insolvent and the government had to inject enormous amounts of money into them, which led to a sovereign debt crisis. Speaking of sovereign debt crises, the work by Diamond and Dybvig also underpins the literature on financial contagion, which is based on a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/262109" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2000 paper</a> by Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale. I worked with Allen and Gale for many years, and all our papers have been based on the work of Diamond, and Diamond and Dybvig. In a similar way to how state reassurances can defuse a bank run caused by liquidity problems, we saw how the then European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was able to defuse the run on government bonds in the eurozone crisis in 2011 by saying that the bank would do “<a href="https://qz.com/1038954/whatever-it-takes-five-years-ago-today-mario-draghi-saved-the-euro-with-a-momentous-speech/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whatever it takes</a>” to preserve the euro. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tB2CM2ngpQg?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> The prize announcement has attracted plenty of people on social media saying we shouldn’t be celebrating Bernanke when he was so involved in the quantitative easing (QE) that has helped to cause today’s global financial problems – what’s your view? I would say that without QE our problems would today be much worse, but also that the prize recognises his achievements as an academic and not as chair of the Fed. Also, Bernanke was only one of the numerous central bankers who resorted to QE after 2008. And it is not only the central bank actions that make banks stable. It’s also worth pointing out that the changes to the rules around the amount of capital that banks have to hold after 2008 have made the financial system much better protected against bank runs than it was beforehand. Should such rules have been introduced when the academics first explained the risks around bank runs and contagion? The literature had certainly hinted at these risks, but regulation-wise, we had to wait until after the global financial crisis to see <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/art/ecb.fsrart201405_03.en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reforms such as</a> macro-prudential regulation and more stringent micro-prudential regulation. This shows that regulators were underestimating the risk of financial crises, perhaps also pushed by the banking lobbies that had been traditionally very powerful and managed to convince regulators that risks were well managed. If retail banks become less important in future because of blockchain technology or central bank digital currencies, do you think the threat of financial panic will reduce? If we are heading for a situation where depositors put their money into central banks rather than retail banks, that would diminish the role of retail banking, but I think we are far from that. Central bank digital currencies can be designed in such a way that retail banks are still necessary. But either way, the insights from Diamond and Dybvig about liquidity panics are still relevant because they apply to any context where coordination failures among investors are important, such as sovereign debt crises, currency attacks and so on.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192208/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> Written by Elena Carletti. Republished with permission of <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobel-economics-prize-insights-into-financial-contagion-changed-how-central-banks-react-during-a-crisis-192208" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: The Nobel Foundation

Money & Banking

Ukraine war: what history tells us about the effectiveness of sanctions

The west has responded to the invasion of Ukraine by <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-sanctions-can-still-make-a-difference-but-only-if-done-right-177783">imposing economic sanctions on Russia</a>. There has been plenty of discussion about whether economic sanctions are an appropriate response, what they hope to achieve and what the results will be – not only for Russia but for the world. Economic sanctions have been used as a tool of war for centuries. In 17th- and 18th-century Europe, when warfare was widespread, economic sanctions were frequently implemented. They included prohibitions on trade, the closure of ports against belligerent enemies, and bans on trade in certain commodities. Economic exchange was affected in more indirect ways, too, by increased privateering and piracy at sea, high taxes, and conscription. The economic consequences of war were felt not only by governments, but by merchants, manufacturers, consumers and wider society, as business and daily life were thrown into chaos. When Britain and France were at war during the Nine Years’ War (1688-97) and the War of the Spanish Succession (1702-13), both sides imposed economic sanctions on the other. England entered the <a href="https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/nine-years-war">Nine Years’ War</a> by declaring war on France on May 17, 1689, in response to Europe-wide concerns that France – and its absolutist monarch Louis XIV – was growing too strong. In its declaration of war, parliament authorised officials to “arrest all ships and vessels conveying any goods or merchandise in them belonging to the French King or to his subjects and inhabitants”. When Scotland followed suit on August 6, the declaration of war forbade any Scottish subjects “to trade or correspond … with the said French king or any of his subjects”. France and Britain again found themselves on opposing sides during the <a href="https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/Spanish-succession">War of the Spanish Succession</a>, a conflict fought over the disputed succession to Spain’s vacant throne and control over that country’s vast global territories. Similar economic sanctions were imposed. In January 1701, the Scottish parliament embargoed “the importation of all French wines, Brandy and other strong waters and vinegar made in France from any place”. The potential for broader ramifications are clear – not only would this harm France, but economic consequences would be felt by any nation doing business in French produce. There were social consequences, too, for anyone who enjoyed drinking French wine. This resonates with current fears over the price of oil. As prices soar as a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52188448">direct result of the Ukraine conflict</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60666251">global bans</a> on Russian oil imports, it is feared that prices of crude oil could <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Says-Energy-Embargo-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-Over-300.html">rise as high as US$300 (£228) a barrel</a>. Just like in 1701, this economic sanction does not only harm the nation against whom it is aimed, but has consequences across the globe. <h2>Turning a blind eye</h2> But these early-modern sanctions met with mixed success. Individual merchants used a variety of tactics to circumvent them, including sailing in neutral ships or carrying falsified documents, as well as entering goods through different ports. In addition, governments on both sides of the channel were complicit in permitting activities that undermined economic sanctions. In 1692, three years into the Nine Years’ War, the Scottish privy council issued six passes for ships to travel to Bordeaux on a commercial venture. Again, in May 1693, Scots were allowed to trade with and travel to France with “express leave” of the monarch or privy council of Scotland. French admirals, too, ignored their own sanctions, granting passes for British ships to trade in La Rochelle and Bordeaux throughout the Nine Years’ War. Similar patterns emerged during the War of the Spanish Succession. The British monarch, Queen Anne, earned herself a reputation for granting passes that allowed trade with France to continue despite wartime embargoes. And in 1702 the English treasury reported that French wine was being brought over from the Spanish port of St Sebastian: “It was taken there from Bordeaux, a Spanish name given to it, and reshipped in Spanish casks”. There was also widespread bribery of port officials. In 1703, <a href="https://www.british-history.ac.uk/cal-treasury-papers/vol3/pp99-127">the English treasury noted that</a>: "This management seemed to be carried on in concert between the consuls in foreign parts and some officers in the Customs … who for private gratuities undertook for and passed such wines as were of the growth of Spain. " In 1704, in England, the House of Lords <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Wine_Trade/4QONQgAACAAJ?hl=en">undertook an enquiry</a> that found that 15 ships in Bordeaux, mostly from the West Country, had loaded French brandies and wines. The resulting report stated that the government discouraged informers and was inclined to hush the matter up rather than pursue the offenders. The stringent economic sanctions imposed during these early-modern conflicts were not consistently upheld, even as bold public statements were made about the strength of enmity. The importance of international economic relationships meant that trade had to be allowed to continue, and governments needed to reconcile their political aims with economic necessity. Early-modern economies were interdependent, so it was in nobody’s interests to destroy established trading routes, whatever the political context. We are already seeing the broader consequences of sanctions imposed on Russia, particularly in terms of the rising prices of oil and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60653856">food</a>. As the world watches Ukraine, it is worth remembering that in the past, the cost of upholding economic sanctions was often seen as too high a price to pay. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-history-tells-us-about-the-effectiveness-of-sanctions-178835" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

International Travel

The economics of ridiculously expensive art

What would possess someone to buy Leonardo da Vinci’s Salvator Mundi for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/15/arts/design/leonardo-da-vinci-salvator-mundi-christies-auction.html">US$450 million</a>? You might think it’s an investment - after all it was previously sold <a href="https://news.artnet.com/market/timeline-salvator-mundi-went-45-to-450-million-59-years-1150661">for just US$10,000</a> in 2005. From an economic point of view, art can be an investment. Although the research shows art investing has mixed results. Art also has what economists refer to as “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Price-Economics-Institute-Political/dp/0521183006">psychic benefits</a>”. It is something to be enjoyed, experienced or flaunted, and this may be the key to the high price paid for Salvator Mundi. <h2>Art as an investment</h2> As an investment, art’s performance varies wildly, depending on a number of factors. For instance, artworks associated with movements that are currently fashionable will outperform other types of art. <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/contemporary-art-1519">Contemporary art</a> is <a href="http://www.artagencypartners.com/market-analysis/impressionist-and-modern-2/">currently outperforming</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/impressionism-29990">impressionist art</a>, for example. The strong demand for contemporary art coupled with limited supply has resulted in some previously overlooked artists, such as <a href="http://www.haring.com/">Keith Haring</a>, being embraced by collectors. But it is typically the works of leading artists that are in hot demand. <a href="https://news.artnet.com/market/25-artists-account-nearly-50-percent-postwar-contemporary-auction-sales-1077026">Recent analysis</a> found that just 25 artists (including <a href="http://basquiat.com/">Jean-Michel Basquiat</a>, <a href="https://www.warhol.org/andy-warhols-life/">Andy Warhol</a> and <a href="https://www.gerhard-richter.com/en/">Gerhard Richter</a>) account for US$1.2 billion of the US$2.7 billion in worldwide art auction sales for contemporary art sold at auction this year. Only two women, <a href="http://www.artnet.com/artists/agnes-martin/">Agnes Martin</a> and <a href="http://yayoi-kusama.jp/">Yayoi Kusama</a>, made it onto the top 25 contemporary artists list. This is indicative of issues around <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gender-pay-gap-is-wider-in-the-arts-than-in-other-industries-87080">gender representation in the arts</a> and the processes by which artists careers and reputations are established. Academic studies of art as an investment have mixed results. For instance, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=563587">research</a> of the Canadian art market found that the returns are lower than investing in the stock market. However, the study identifies other benefits to having art in your portfolio, such as it being more diversified. But <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/10309610810891346">research</a> based on around 35,000 paintings by leading Australian artists show the financial returns average between 4% and 15%. Returns for paintings by leading Australian artists including <a href="http://www.australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/brett-whiteley">Brett Whiteley</a> and <a href="http://www.artnet.com/artists/jeffrey-smart/biography">Jeffrey Smart</a> exceed stock market returns. The study also found that oil and watercolour paintings, as well as those sold by certain auction houses, had higher prices. So-called “masterpieces”, such as those by Leonardo da Vinci, actually <a href="https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/american-economic-association/art-as-an-investment-and-the-underperformance-of-masterpieces-p7UeNVweF6">perform worse</a> financially than the art market as a whole. However, because art also provides benefits through consumption (prestige, decoration etc.), it is different to shares and bonds. The returns may be lower, but art is still attractive to invest in. The Australian art market reflects what has happened in the global market for contemporary art. For instance the five highest priced Australian works sold in 2017 <a href="https://www.aasd.com.au/index.cfm/annual-auction-totals/">account for almost 10%</a> of the total value of all works sold. And while the recent sale of Earth Creation 1 by the late Indigenous artist Emily Kame Kngwarreye has not attracted the attention of the Leonardo sale, its <a href="http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/arts/2017/11/17/emily-kame-kngwarreye-aboriginal-art-record-auction/">price of $A2.1 million</a> is nearly double what it sold for at auction a decade earlier. <h2>Art for consumption</h2> The aesthetic pleasure of art, a feeling of being challenged or inspired, is subjective and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444537768000040">difficult to measure</a>. But that doesn’t mean the consumption of art doesn’t add to its value. <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Beyond-Price-Economics-Institute-Political/dp/0521183006">Economists</a> use the terms “psychic returns” or “psychic benefits” to describe the benefits of consuming art. This is broken down into three main areas. One area is the satisfaction of supporting the arts and artists. This motivation is especially important for those who donate their collections to museums or otherwise support the arts. While this motivation is important it is not directly related to auction prices. Then there’s the psychic benefit comes from the “functional” (or decorative) benefits of art that is used to adorn spaces. This is generally the closest to the artists intention when they create the work in the first place. There’s also the prestige that comes from possessing art - especially as it is used to display good taste, wealth and power. For instance, entrances and foyers of offices often display large striking works of modern or contemporary art. This is what <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.99.4.1653">economists</a> call “conspicuous consumption”. As people become wealthier, their demand for high-end art increases. Indeed, art has a long tradition of being used as a statement of power, including by the church. What drives the art market, especially at the upper echelons, is a curious mix of investment and consumption, fuelled by a limited supply. The work of famous artists provides a signal of quality and assurance to the market and so their work is coveted by the rich and powerful. The uniqueness and rareness of these pieces not only spurs demand, but restricts supply, creating a perfect storm to drive prices up. Although, even this doesn’t entirely explain the high price paid for Leonardo’s Salvator Mundi. <a href="https://news.artnet.com/market/the-gray-market-salvator-mundi-sale-1117208">Analysis</a> of the sale suggests the market campaign by the auction house was significant in achieving such a high price. But aside from its trade value, art can have cultural value and social significance that do not neatly translate to market prices. So while Leonardo’s Salvator Mundisold for US$450 million, non-tradable masterpieces such as Michaelangelo’s ceiling of the Sistine Chapel aren’t worthless. They’re “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Price-Economics-Institute-Political/dp/0521183006">beyond price</a>”. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-economics-of-ridiculously-expensive-art-87668" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Art

China doubles down on bizarre Russia conspiracy theory

China has doubled down on a bizarre conspiracy that is believed to be part of an elaborate ploy to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Earlier this week, a senior Chinese official accused the United States of running a series of biolabs in Russia, claiming the situation was “dangerous” and that the “safety” of the alleged labs were at risk. “Under the current circumstances, for the sake of the health and safety of people in Ukraine, the surrounding region and the whole world, we call on all relevant parties to ensure the safety of these laboratories,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian during a recent press conference. “In particular, the US, as the party with the best knowledge of these laboratories, should release relevant details as soon as possible, including what viruses are stored and what research has been conducted." “What is the real intention of the US? What exactly did it do?” Mr Zhao went on to claim that America's biological military activities in Ukraine were just the "tip of the iceberg", following a series of Russian reports that claim over 30 biolabs were in operation in Ukraine at the request of a US government agency. However, the bizarre conspiracy theory seems to have originated from Russia back in April 2020. At the time, the US embassy in Ukraine was forced to denounce the wild rumours, slamming them as “Russian disinformation regarding the strong US-Ukrainian partnership to reduce biological threats”. “The US Department of Defence’s Biological Threat Reduction Program works with the Ukrainian government to consolidate and secure pathogens and toxins of security concern in Ukrainian government facilities, while allowing for peaceful research and vaccine development,” the statement reads. “We also work with our Ukrainian partners to ensure Ukraine can detect and report outbreaks caused by dangerous pathogens before they pose security or stability threats." “Our joint efforts help to ensure that dangerous pathogens do not fall into the wrong hands.” The misinformation about the alleged biolabs has become so widespread that Britain's Defence Ministry has also weighed in. “Since the end of February there has been a notable intensification of Russian accusations that Ukraine is developing nuclear or biological weapons,” the ministry said in a tweet yesterday. “These narratives are long standing but are currently likely being amplified as part of a retrospective justification for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” While the US confirmed it was working with Ukraine, they went on to say the were fearful of any biological research material getting into the wrong hands. “Ukraine has biological research facilities, which in fact we are now quite concerned Russian troops, Russian forces, may be seeking to gain control of,” senior State Department official Victoria Nuland said during a recent hearing, according to AFP. Image credits: Getty Images

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