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Are flu cases already 100 times higher than last year? Here’s what we really know about the 2023 flu season

<p>Alarming <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/flu-cases-australia-update-warning-vulnerable-numbers-rise-100-fold-last-year/55ccbb1d-9613-4e45-85aa-43c905efc8e6">headlines</a> and media coverage <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/the-flu-nearly-disappeared-during-the-pandemic-now-cases-are-soaring-in-australia/a98cybrj8">have said</a> we’ve had 100 times as many influenza cases in the first two months of 2023 compared with the same time the previous year.</p> <p>The coverage suggested we’re in for a bumper flu season, starting early and your best protection was to get a flu vaccine, when available.</p> <p>But that scary sounding 100 figure is misleading. Here’s what’s behind the figures and what we can really expect from the 2023 flu season.</p> <h2>Comparing apples with oranges</h2> <p>In the first two months of 2023, there were 8,474 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza. In 2022, over the same period, there were 79 cases.</p> <p>So it might seem this year’s figures are indeed more than 100 times higher than last year’s. But we shouldn’t be alarmed. That’s because in early 2022, influenza cases were artificially low.</p> <p>Strict COVID measures <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2998">almost eliminated</a> influenza outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. Shutting international borders, quarantining, social distancing and mask-wearing stopped influenza coming into the country and spreading.</p> <p>Many COVID restrictions weren’t relaxed until late February/March 2022. So, in January and February of that year there were fewer opportunities for us to mingle and spread the influenza virus. It’s hardly surprising there were few cases then.</p> <p>In fact, the rate of flu in 2023 is actually very similar to pre-COVID years (that is before 2020).</p> <p>As always, the reported cases represent just a fraction of the actual influenza cases. That’s because many people do not seek medical care when infected with influenza or their GP doesn’t always test them for it.</p> <h2>How about an earlier flu season?</h2> <p>Every year, it seems, influenza throws a new curve ball making predictions tricky.</p> <p>Flu rates in the northern hemisphere <a href="https://www.cnet.com/health/medical/early-signs-point-to-this-years-flu-season-being-the-worst-one-in-years/">largely peaked</a> in December 2022, two months earlier than usual.</p> <p>But there has been some late-season influenza B activity in the northern hemisphere this year. This is one type of influenza that causes seasonal flu. So travellers arriving/returning from the northern hemisphere have been bringing influenza to Australia for several months.</p> <p>So we expect more cases of influenza. Australia may even have an autumn surge. This occurred <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2998">last year</a>, where influenza cases rose sharply in May, and peaked by June. That’s two months earlier than the five-year average pre-COVID.</p> <p>Before COVID, influenza cases usually began to rise in April/May. This progressed to a full epidemic from June to August, often extending into September, before waning in October.</p> <h2>So what can we expect in 2023?</h2> <p>The start, length and severity of influenza seasons vary and are often unpredictable.</p> <p>Community immunity will be less than in pre-COVID times. That’s because of fewer influenza infections during COVID restrictions plus <a href="https://ncirs.org.au/influenza-vaccination-coverage-data/national-influenza-vaccination-coverage-all-people">lower influenza vaccine uptake</a> in recent years.</p> <p>So the 2023 flu season may be at least moderately severe. This remains speculation. Flu routinely surprises us.</p> <p>The severity of the coming Australian influenza season will be influenced by the types of influenza that circulate, when the surge starts and when the season peaks. The effectiveness, uptake and timing of vaccinations and the degree of remaining herd immunity will all be important.</p> <h2>Plan to get vaccinated</h2> <p>Only about 40% of those eligible were vaccinated against influenza in 2022, according to the <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/australian-immunisation-register">Australian Immunisation Register</a> database. Rates <a href="https://ncirs.org.au/influenza-vaccination-coverage-data/national-influenza-vaccination-coverage-all-people">were highest</a> in people aged 65 or older.</p> <p>However, as we saw an early influenza season in 2022 (peaking in May/June) this meant many Australians were not vaccinated during the early stages of the epidemic.</p> <p>With this knowledge, it’s important to be vaccinated in April/May before influenza becomes common.</p> <p>Now is a good time to start preparing to get your flu vaccine. Ask your GP or pharmacist when you can book yourself in.</p> <p>Vaccination is our best defence against influenza and is recommended from the age of <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/2023-national-immunisation-program-influenza-vaccination-early-advice-for-vaccination-providers">6 months</a>. Younger infants <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/influenza-vaccination-in-pregnancy">receive protection</a> if their mum was vaccinated during pregnancy.</p> <p>The 2023 vaccine has been updated to protect against more recently circulating strains. There are also <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-03/atagi-advice-on-seasonal-influenza-vaccines-in-2023.pdf">different types</a> of influenza vaccine, some more effective in elderly people, some free under the <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/national-immunisation-program-schedule?language=en">National Immunisation Program</a>, some not. Other vaccines are available for people with egg allergies and for small children. It’s best to discuss the vaccine options with your GP or pharmacist.</p> <p><em>Image credit: Shutterstock</em></p> <p><em>This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-flu-cases-already-100-times-higher-than-last-year-heres-what-we-really-know-about-the-2023-flu-season-201559" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a></em></p>

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Why can you still get influenza if you’ve had a flu shot?

<p>Restrictions have eased, international borders are open and influenza is back in Australia after a two-year absence.</p> <p>Suddenly, major <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-08/medical-evacuations-as-flu-arrives-early-in-nt/101132294" target="_blank" rel="noopener">flu outbreaks</a> are occurring across the country, catching many off guard.</p> <p>Flu vaccinations aim to protect against four influenza viruses that cause disease in humans (two subtypes from influenza A and two from influenza B).</p> <p>But vaccine-mediated protection varies each year depending on how well the vaccine matches the disease-causing influenza viruses that are circulating at a given time. Vaccine effectiveness – a real-world measure based on the proportion of vaccinated people who still develop the flu – <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ranges</a> from <a href="https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/us-flu-vaccine-efficacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16%</a> to <a href="https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm/%24File/Vacc-efficacy-effect-impact-Oct18.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">60%</a>.</p> <p>However, it’s still important to get your flu shot. If you’ve been vaccinated and still get the flu, you’re <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">less likely</a> to get as sick.</p> <h2>Why it’s difficult to predict which subtypes will dominate</h2> <p>Of the four types of influenza viruses that exist in nature, two cause significant disease in humans: influenza A and influenza B.</p> <p>The 2022 influenza vaccine is quadrivalent (targets four distinct viruses): two influenza A viruses (subtypes H3N2 and H1N1) and two influenza B viruses from distinct lineages.</p> <p>Within each flu A subtype further genetic variation can arise, with mutations (known as genetic drift) generating many viral variants that are classified into “clades” and sub-clades.</p> <p>H3N2 is particularly good at generating lots of diversity in this way. So predicting exactly which H3N2 virus to target in the vaccine is especially difficult.</p> <p>A key challenge for flu vaccines is the decision for which virus to target has to be made months ahead of time. The the H3N2 virus in the Australian flu vaccine (A/Darwin/9/2021) was chosen in September 2021 to enable the vaccine to be manufactured and distributed in time for the 2022 winter.</p> <p>There is no guarantee a different H3N2 virus that isn’t so well targeted by the vaccine won’t arrive in the country in the months leading into winter and start causing disease.</p> <p>Another factor that has made predicting which H3N2 virus to target in the vaccine uniquely difficult for 2022 is the lack of data on which viruses were dominant in the preceding flu seasons, both in Australia and on the other side of the Equator.</p> <p>With travel restrictions easing towards the end of 2021, flu cases did start to reappear during the northern hemisphere 2021-22 winter. But the lack of flu cases during the preceding seasons (due to COVID) meant the data used to predict which viruses to target was inadequate.</p> <p>The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) analysed data from more than 3,000 children and <a href="https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/us-flu-vaccine-efficacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found</a> a vaccine effectiveness of just 16% protection from mild to moderate disease from H3N2. Protection from more severe disease was just 14%.</p> <h2>We don’t know which subtypes will circulate in Australia</h2> <p>Data about flu vaccine effectiveness in the southern hemisphere 2022 winter isn’t yet available, and it’s unclear how protective the current vaccine is against the currently circulating disease-causing subtypes.</p> <p>While H3N2 viruses appears to be <a href="https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm/%24File/flu-05-2022.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">driving some disease now</a>, other flu viruses may become more prevalent later in the season.</p> <p>The flu vaccine is a quadrivalent vaccine, so in addition to influenza A H3N2, it will protect against another influenza A subtype (H1N1) and two distinct lineages of influenza B virus. These viruses don’t change as rapidly as H3N2, so it’s more likely the vaccine will give better protection against these other influenza viruses.</p> <p>Even if vaccine protection against H3N2 is lower than usual this year, the vaccine <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">could make the difference</a> between recovering at home versus ending up in hospital.</p> <h2>So who should get a flu shot and when?</h2> <p>The flu vaccine offers the highest level of protection in the first three to four months months after vaccination. The season <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/health-topics/immunisation/vaccines/influenza-flu-vaccine" target="_blank" rel="noopener">generally peaks</a> between June and September – although this year we have seen a much earlier than usual start to the flu season. It’s unclear whether this early start will mean a longer flu season or an early finish. So it’s not too late to get vaccinated.</p> <p>Flu vaccines <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/health-topics/immunisation/vaccines/influenza-flu-vaccine" target="_blank" rel="noopener">are recommended</a> for everyone aged six months and over, but are particularly important for people who are more at risk of complications from influenza, including:</p> <ul> <li>Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged six months and over</li> <li>children aged six months to five years</li> <li>pregnant women</li> <li>people aged 65 years or over</li> <li>people aged six months or over who have medical conditions that mean they have a higher risk of getting serious disease.</li> </ul> <h2>What if you still get the flu?</h2> <p>If you develop flu symptoms, isolate and <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/health-topics/flu-influenza#diagnosis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">see your GP</a> for an influenza PCR test to determine whether you are indeed infected with influenza, particularly if you’re in the higher-risk groups.</p> <p>Specific antivirals for influenza <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/health-topics/flu-influenza#treatment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">can help</a>, if given early. To ensure rapid access to particularly vulnerable aged-care residents, aged-care facilities are being <a href="https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/plans-ramp-up-for-tamiflu-deployment-in-aged-care" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stocked</a> with the flu antiviral drug Tamiflu.</p> <p>In New South Wales, free <a href="https://www.newsofthearea.com.au/4cyte-drive-through-covid-19-testing-centres-to-conduct-conduct-influenza-and-rsv-testing-94671" target="_blank" rel="noopener">drive-through clinics</a> now offer testing for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. Other states and territories may follow.</p> <p><em><strong>This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-can-you-still-get-influenza-if-youve-had-a-flu-shot-184327" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.</strong></em></p> <p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>

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You can’t get influenza from a flu shot – here’s how it works

<p>Influenza is a moving target for vaccines. Each year, up to four different strains circulate, and they are constantly evolving to escape our immune system.</p> <p>So rather than childhood jabs giving long lasting immunity, we need annual flu shots to provide optimal protection against influenza.</p> <p>But while you might sometimes get sick after having a flu shot, it’s a myth that having a flu shot can give you the flu.</p> <p><strong>A quick history of the flu vaccine</strong></p> <p>Influenza vaccines were first developed in the 1930s and 1940s, starting with the isolation of the influenza virus.</p> <p>Back then, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2554195/pdf/bullwho00626-0133.pdf">we learned</a> there were many different influenza strains. To be effective, early research showed the vaccine needed to be matched to the circulating strains, and to be able to stimulate a response from the immune system.</p> <p>The process to produce modern influenza vaccines now occurs on a much more refined and industrial scale. Hundreds of thousands of influenza viruses are collected by hundreds of national influenza centres around the world.</p> <p>From these, four strains are <a href="https://www.who.int/influenza/vaccines/en/">selected</a> for the annual flu vaccine, based on the viruses that are circulating at that time, how well the vaccines activate the immune system, how the strains are evolving, and the effectiveness of previous vaccines.</p> <p>Most modern vaccines are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/how-fluvaccine-made.htm">manufactured</a> by growing large quantities of live virus – mostly in chicken eggs or less commonly animal cells – which are then purified, deactivated and split into smaller components. These vaccines are inactive and cannot replicate.</p> <p>There are also two new “enhanced” vaccines that are used in older people, who don’t tend to respond as strongly to vaccines: <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25119609">Fluzone High Dose</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3447603/">Fluad</a>, which is designed to better stimulate immunity and draw immune cells to the site of vaccination.</p> <p><strong>How the immune system fights the flu</strong></p> <p>The human immune system has several strategies to protect against infection. For viral infections such as influenza, the key strategy is known as adaptive immunity. This part of the immune system can “remember” previous exposure to pathogens.</p> <p>When you get an influenza infection, the virus enters and hijacks the machinery of the host cell to replicate itself, before releasing these copies to infect more cells.</p> <p><a href="https://www.immunology.org/public-information/bitesized-immunology/c%C3%A9lulas/cd8-t-cells">T lymphocyte cells</a> of the immune system can recognise this viral incursion. T cells protect against further spread of the virus by activating pathways that cause infected cells to trigger a “suicide” process.</p> <p>Another strategy the body uses is to produce antibodies, which are molecules produced by B cells that recognise components of the viral capsule. These <a href="https://www.immunology.org/public-information/bitesized-immunology/c%C3%A9lulas/b-cells">antibodies</a> work by sticking to the surface of the influenza virus to prevent it spreading and facilitating disposal.</p> <p><strong>Flu shots help mount a quicker defence</strong></p> <p>On a first exposure to a pathogen, our B cells take at least two weeks to ramp up production of antibodies. However, on subsequent challenges, antibody production occurs much more quickly.</p> <p>Influenza vaccines harness this arm of the immune system, known as “humoral” immunity. By “practising” on viral components, vaccines allow the immune system to react more quickly and effectively when faced with the real virus.</p> <p><strong>So why do you sometimes get sick after a flu shot?</strong></p> <p>There are several reasons why you might feel a bit off after getting your flu shot.</p> <p>First, your flu shot only protects you against influenza and not other respiratory illness which might causes similar cold or flu symptoms. This includes RSV (<a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/respiratory-syncytial-virus.aspx">respiratory syncytial virus</a>), which is common in late autumn and early winter.</p> <p>Second, stimulating the immune system can result in <a href="https://beta.health.gov.au/services/flu-influenza-immunisation-service">symptoms</a> similar to that of influenza, although much milder and short-lived. These include local inflammation (redness, pain or swelling at the site of the vaccine) and more general symptoms (fever, aches and pains, tiredness).</p> <p>Third, vaccine-induced protection isn’t complete. In some years, the vaccine is not well <a href="https://www.who.int/influenza/vaccines/virus/recommendations/201502_qanda_vaccineeffectiveness.pdf">matched</a> to circulating strains. Usually this is due to mutations that may develop in circulating strains after the vaccine strains are selected.</p> <p>The flu vaccine also doesn’t “kick in” for two weeks after vaccine administration. In some people, particularly those who are older and those who have weakened immune systems, antibody production is not as strong, and the level of protection is lower.</p> <p>Despite this, studies have consistently shown that vaccinated people are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22032844">less likely to get influenza or complications from the flu</a> than those who aren’t vaccinated.</p> <p><strong>A better way to protect against the flu</strong></p> <p>A problem with current vaccines is the reliance on eggs, which results in a relatively slow and labour-intensive production process.</p> <p>Current <a href="https://cmr.asm.org/content/26/3/476">work</a> is aiming to speed up this process by using different technologies so that vaccine manufacturers can react more quickly to changes in circulating viruses.</p> <p>The “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-universal-flu-vaccine-is-still-some-time-off-18525">holy grail</a>” for influenza vaccines is to stimulate an effective immune response to a component of influenza that doesn’t change each year, so annual vaccination is not required.</p> <p>These efforts have proved <a href="https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gsk-dumps-universal-flu-vaccine-after-interim-data-readout">elusive</a> so far.</p> <p>A better strategy might be to harness T cell immunity. Recent <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30778243">work</a> has shown that a type of T cell, known as “killer” T cells, can recognise other parts of the influenza virus, and therefore can provide broad protection against seasonal and pandemic strains.</p> <p>But while we wait for a better alternative, getting an annual flu shot is the best way to avoid the flu.</p> <p><em>Written by Allen Cheng. Republished with permission of </em><a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-get-influenza-from-a-flu-shot-heres-how-it-works-118916"><em>The Conversation</em></a><em>.</em></p>

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